Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
636 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF Package/
Isolated showers and thunderstorms, winds shifting out of the
north, and some MVFR cigs are the main concerns for this TAF
period.

At this hour showers and thunderstorms are working down the Rio
Grande Plains and other storms are moving towards SAT/SSF. For
this reason will carry VCTS at SAT/SSF/DRT for part of the
evening. It looks like AUS should remain mostly dry other than a
few showers moving through the area later this evening.

A front has pushed south across the area with northerly winds now
prevailing at all terminals. Winds should be light and northerly
overnight with a bit more of a northeasterly or easterly
component as we get into the day on Friday.

Although the upper level low is pulling in some dry air aloft the
ground and air at the surface is still moist enough that we should
see a round of MVFR status develop towards morning which could
stick around through the day.

With decent rain chances continuing through the day on Friday, TAF
amendments will be made as needed to add or remove mention of
precipitation from the terminals. The where and when of the
precipitation is still a low confidence forecast beyond about 6
to 12 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper low currently located over the
Southern Edwards plateau and Rio Grande plains this afternoon. At
the surface, a cold front was located roughly along a Del Rio to
San Marcos to Georgetown line.

The above mentioned upper low is forecast to drift slowly
northeast through tonight. We are seeing some dry air wrap around
the western periphery of this upper low. However, plenty of
moisture remains across the region and with saturated soils over
most areas, the threat for flash flooding will continue tonight
and Friday. Based on recent model data, we have decided to expand
the Flash Flood Watch for all of south central Texas into Friday
evening. As the deeper moisture remains over the coastal plains
and is wrapped northward into the I-35 corridor and portions of
the Hill Country, suspect these areas are most at risk for
flooding. Farther west into the southern Edwards plateau and Rio
Grande plains, we should see less coverage of showers and storms.
However, locally heavy rainfall is still a concern as storms will
be capable of producing rainfall amounts of 2 inches per hour.
For Friday night, the upper low is forecast to reverse course and
begin a southward drift. Additional drying in the mid-levels
should help reduce rain chances across the Rio Grande plains.
However, with higher moisture for points eastward, rain chances
remain good for the Hill country, I-35 corridor and especially the
coastal plains.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The upper low continues to drift southward into deep south Texas
through Saturday night. With the stronger upper lift gradually
departing, we expect a slow decrease in rain chances through the
mentioned period. A drying trend is expected to continue into the
middle of the upcoming work week as upper level ridging builds in
from the west. Temperatures are generally expected to remain below
normal through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  80  66  81  67 /  70  60  50  60  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  80  65  81  67 /  70  60  50  60  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  81  65  81  67 /  60  50  50  60  40
Burnet Muni Airport            63  77  64  78  64 /  70  60  50  60  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  87  67  86  67 /  40  20  20  40  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  78  64  79  65 /  70  60  60  60  30
Hondo Muni Airport             64  83  66  82  67 /  50  40  40  60  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  80  65  81  67 /  60  60  50  60  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  81  67  81  68 /  70  60  60  70  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       66  81  66  81  67 /  50  50  50  60  40
Stinson Muni Airport           66  83  68  82  69 /  50  50  50  60  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...Blanco...Burnet...
Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...Dimmit...Edwards...Fayette...Frio...
Gillespie...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Kerr...
Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Llano...Maverick...Medina...Real...Travis...
Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Treadway
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-032030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
326 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WITH RATES
OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN RAPID FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...RAPID
RISES ON ALREADY ELEVATED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ON SUNDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD WANE BY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT...A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND
60 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON
IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS DURING THIS WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
746 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             1 SW VON ORMY           29.28N  98.67W
06/02/2016  M0.88 INCH       BEXAR              TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600563

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
759 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             1 NW SAN ANTONIO        29.44N  98.50W
06/02/2016  M1.00 INCH       BEXAR              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600564

CVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
804 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ205-207-221-223-030145-
WILSON TX-GUADALUPE TX-GONZALES TX-BEXAR TX-
804 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BEXAR...SOUTHWESTERN
GONZALES...SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE AND WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM
CDT...

AT 803 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LA VERNIA...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF FLORESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLORESVILLE...POTH...STOCKDALE...KOSCIUSKO...NIXON...ST. HEDWIG...
ELMENDORF...LA VERNIA...NEW BERLIN...CALAVERAS LAKE...SUTHERLAND SPRINGS...
PANDORA...ZUEHL...ADKINS...CANADA VERDE AND PARITA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2922 9837 2950 9816 2929 9765 2899 9805
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 294DEG 26KT 2933 9822

AAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
828 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ205-220>222-030215-
WILSON TX-KARNES TX-ATASCOSA TX-BEXAR TX-
828 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BEXAR...WEST
CENTRAL KARNES...SOUTHWESTERN WILSON AND ATASCOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

AT 828 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF FLORESVILLE TO CHARLOTTE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLEASANTON...JOURDANTON...POTEET...CHARLOTTE...CHRISTINE...CAMPBELLTON...
LEMING...MCCOY...DOBROWOLSKI...DAVIS...PEGGY...COY CITY...ESPEY...AMPHION...
COUGHRAN...DEWEESVILLE...FASHING AND GRAYTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2864 9834 2864 9866 2879 9880 2900 9880
      2922 9839 2899 9805 2890 9794 2878 9809
      2878 9810 2861 9833
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 303DEG 21KT 2909 9831 2886 9872

AAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
842 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ207-221>224-030230-
WILSON TX-GUADALUPE TX-DE WITT TX-KARNES TX-GONZALES TX-
842 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KARNES...NORTHWESTERN
DEWITT...SOUTHWESTERN GONZALES...SOUTHEASTERN GUADALUPE AND WILSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 841 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER STOCKDALE AND FLORESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GONZALES...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...POTH...STOCKDALE...KOSCIUSKO...
NIXON...FALLS CITY...SMILEY...CHEAPSIDE...GILLETT...PANDORA...SUTHERLAND
SPRINGS...WESTHOFF...CESTOHOWA...WRIGHTSBORO...PANA MARIA...COTTON PATCH...
MONTHALIA AND NEW DAVY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2912 9827 2951 9798 2949 9744 2908 9736
      2895 9760 2888 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 303DEG 20KT 2920 9793

AAT

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