Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
636 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF Package/
Isolated showers and thunderstorms, winds shifting out of the
north, and some MVFR cigs are the main concerns for this TAF
period.

At this hour showers and thunderstorms are working down the Rio
Grande Plains and other storms are moving towards SAT/SSF. For
this reason will carry VCTS at SAT/SSF/DRT for part of the
evening. It looks like AUS should remain mostly dry other than a
few showers moving through the area later this evening.

A front has pushed south across the area with northerly winds now
prevailing at all terminals. Winds should be light and northerly
overnight with a bit more of a northeasterly or easterly
component as we get into the day on Friday.

Although the upper level low is pulling in some dry air aloft the
ground and air at the surface is still moist enough that we should
see a round of MVFR status develop towards morning which could
stick around through the day.

With decent rain chances continuing through the day on Friday, TAF
amendments will be made as needed to add or remove mention of
precipitation from the terminals. The where and when of the
precipitation is still a low confidence forecast beyond about 6
to 12 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper low currently located over the
Southern Edwards plateau and Rio Grande plains this afternoon. At
the surface, a cold front was located roughly along a Del Rio to
San Marcos to Georgetown line.

The above mentioned upper low is forecast to drift slowly
northeast through tonight. We are seeing some dry air wrap around
the western periphery of this upper low. However, plenty of
moisture remains across the region and with saturated soils over
most areas, the threat for flash flooding will continue tonight
and Friday. Based on recent model data, we have decided to expand
the Flash Flood Watch for all of south central Texas into Friday
evening. As the deeper moisture remains over the coastal plains
and is wrapped northward into the I-35 corridor and portions of
the Hill Country, suspect these areas are most at risk for
flooding. Farther west into the southern Edwards plateau and Rio
Grande plains, we should see less coverage of showers and storms.
However, locally heavy rainfall is still a concern as storms will
be capable of producing rainfall amounts of 2 inches per hour.
For Friday night, the upper low is forecast to reverse course and
begin a southward drift. Additional drying in the mid-levels
should help reduce rain chances across the Rio Grande plains.
However, with higher moisture for points eastward, rain chances
remain good for the Hill country, I-35 corridor and especially the
coastal plains.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The upper low continues to drift southward into deep south Texas
through Saturday night. With the stronger upper lift gradually
departing, we expect a slow decrease in rain chances through the
mentioned period. A drying trend is expected to continue into the
middle of the upcoming work week as upper level ridging builds in
from the west. Temperatures are generally expected to remain below
normal through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  80  66  81  67 /  70  60  50  60  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  80  65  81  67 /  70  60  50  60  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  81  65  81  67 /  60  50  50  60  40
Burnet Muni Airport            63  77  64  78  64 /  70  60  50  60  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  87  67  86  67 /  40  20  20  40  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  78  64  79  65 /  70  60  60  60  30
Hondo Muni Airport             64  83  66  82  67 /  50  40  40  60  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  80  65  81  67 /  60  60  50  60  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  81  67  81  68 /  70  60  60  70  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       66  81  66  81  67 /  50  50  50  60  40
Stinson Muni Airport           66  83  68  82  69 /  50  50  50  60  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...Blanco...Burnet...
Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...Dimmit...Edwards...Fayette...Frio...
Gillespie...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Kerr...
Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Llano...Maverick...Medina...Real...Travis...
Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Treadway
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-032030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
326 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WITH RATES
OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN RAPID FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...RAPID
RISES ON ALREADY ELEVATED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ON SUNDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD WANE BY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT...A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND
60 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON
IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS DURING THIS WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ205-022115-
BEXAR TX-
333 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...

AT 332 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SAN ANTONIO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...SCHERTZ...KIRBY...ALAMO HEIGHTS...WINDCREST...TERRELL HILLS...
OLMOS PARK...ST. HEDWIG...CONVERSE...CASTLE HILLS...BALCONES HEIGHTS...
FRIENDLY CORNER...SAYERS...ADKINS AND MARTINEZ.

LAT...LON 2936 9858 2951 9858 2952 9820 2951 9820
      2951 9819 2937 9820 2933 9823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 270DEG 17KT 2944 9850

AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             9 W GONZALES            29.51N  97.60W
06/02/2016  E0.25 INCH       GONZALES           TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600561

EMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
413 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ185>187-022200-
BANDERA TX-REAL TX-KERR TX-
413 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL KERR...NORTHWESTERN
BANDERA AND NORTHEASTERN REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 413 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES NORTHWEST OF LOST MAPLES STATE PARK...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF
LEAKEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOST MAPLES STATE PARK AND PRADE RANCH.

LAT...LON 2990 9946 2974 9962 2999 9992 3008 9979
      3008 9976 3009 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 310DEG 15KT 2999 9977

AAT

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