Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
703 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move near and
across the I-35 terminals this evening and overnight. Several
outflow boundaries are expected to push across South-Central Texas
through Thursday morning with chances for numerous to widespread
showers and storms. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through
Thursday morning as storms pass and lower Cigs and Vbsys. Some of
these storms could be strong to severe as they push across the
area. Gusty winds up to 30 knots cant be rule out with stronger
storms. Cigs and Vbsys are expected to return to VFR conditions in
the afternoon for a short period. Shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected Thursday afternoon with Cigs mainly in the MVFR
category for much of the afternoon and evening time frame.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Upper low can be seen on water vapor just south of the AZ/NM
border. This is the system that will be coming into Texas over the
next several days bringing the continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms. This afternoon it appears that South Central Texas
is in between lift areas, one to the east near the TX/LA border
and more lift over the Edwards Plateau and the Big Bend. Will
continue with high pop and the wording of locally heavy rainfall
overnight. It appears from the latest meso models that a cluster
or MCS should develop out west and move through the central and
southern sections of the CWA. This risk of storms will continue to
be high on Thursday as the upper low moves into Texas and stalls
over Central Texas. The flood threat will remain high with
saturated soils. The pattern has shown breaks in the activity as
the large MCS systems do a good job in bringing stable area in
their wake. The timing and exact location of these systems will
still be problematic in giving any sort of forecast specifics.
Flooding threat will remain high. Cant rule out some Severe
Storms with a Marginal risk forecast by SPC. Marginal risk is
mainly south of the area on Thursday.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Both the European and GFS show the upper low stalling over the
area on Thursday Night through Saturday before drifting southwest
into Mexico over the weekend into early next week. Keeping with
the 3-5 inches, isolated 10 inch totals. WPC and models are
showing that much of the precip will be east and south of the area
but with the upper low centered over Texas we will run the
continued risk of daytime development of storms as well as night
time development if the low center develops more of a warm core.
By the start of next week the low is forecast to drift sw into
Mexico. This will take the majority of the lift with it with only
a 20 pop on Monday and no pop on Tuesday. Cant rule out some
isolated activity next week just due to residual moisture left
behind and daytime heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              84  68  81  66  81 /  70  70  80  60  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  84  68  81  66  81 /  70  70  80  60  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  68  81  66  83 /  70  70  80  60  60
Burnet Muni Airport            82  66  79  65  78 /  70  70  70  60  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           86  68  85  67  86 /  70  80  60  30  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        83  67  79  66  78 /  70  70  80  70  60
Hondo Muni Airport             84  68  82  65  83 /  70  80  70  50  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  68  81  66  81 /  70  70  80  60  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   83  70  80  68  81 /  70  70  80  60  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  69  81  66  82 /  70  70  80  60  60
Stinson Muni Airport           84  70  82  68  83 /  70  70  80  60  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...Blanco...Burnet...
Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...Dimmit...Edwards...Fayette...Frio...
Gillespie...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Kerr...
Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Llano...Maverick...Medina...Real...Travis...
Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...17
Synoptic/Grids...05
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
444 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-021000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
444 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH RATES
OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN RAPID FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...RAPID
RISES ON ALREADY ELEVATED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AND THE THREAT IS SIGNIFICANT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS
WITH RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE RATES IN COMBINATION
WITH SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN RAPID FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...
RAPID RISES ON ALREADY ELEVATED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE.
FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED POCKETS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ON SUNDAY AND THEN ISOLATED ON MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD WANE BY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT...A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND
60 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON
IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS DURING THIS WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
740 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             4 SW SMITHSON VALLEY    29.77N  98.37W
06/01/2016  M0.70 INCH       COMAL              TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600533

CVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
749 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ191-206>208-020130-
GUADALUPE TX-COMAL TX-CALDWELL TX-HAYS TX-
749 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALDWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN COMAL...NORTHERN GUADALUPE AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAYS
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 748 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NEW BRAUNFELS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SAN MARCOS...SEGUIN...CANYON LAKE DAM...SCHERTZ...CANYON
LAKE...GARDEN RIDGE...MARTINDALE...STAPLES...ZORN...FENTRESS...GERONIMO...
KINGSBURY...MCQUEENEY...HUNTER...SOLMS...GRUENE...REDWOOD...REEDVILLE AND
SATTLER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2964 9827 2987 9825 2989 9773 2957 9773
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 272DEG 30KT 2976 9818

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
823 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ183-020215-
VAL VERDE TX-
823 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 823 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANDALE...OR 22 MILES NORTH OF LANGTRY...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PANDALE AND HACKBERRY CROSSING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3012 10176 3023 10172 3012 10115 2986 10124
      3004 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 286DEG 27KT 3012 10168

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
841 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ183-020230-
VAL VERDE TX-
841 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 840 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LAKE VIEW...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF DEL RIO...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEL RIO...LAKE VIEW...VAL VERDE PARK...CIENEGAS TERRACE...LAUGHLIN AFB...
AMISTAD VILLAGE...AND ROUGH CANYON REC AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2961 10091 2933 10074 2927 10074 2924 10077
      2924 10080 2926 10081 2928 10087 2931 10089
      2933 10094 2935 10095 2936 10100 2944 10106
      2946 10106 2947 10108 2954 10110
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 338DEG 17KT 2951 10098

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
919 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ183-020300-
VAL VERDE TX-
919 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 918 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LANGTRY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LANGTRY AND SHUMLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2987 10168 2984 10130 2966 10136 2970 10137
      2975 10142 2977 10140 2975 10144 2978 10145
      2979 10147 2976 10154 2981 10154 2980 10157
      2977 10158 2977 10163 2976 10164 2977 10166
      2976 10171 2977 10171
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 285DEG 22KT 2977 10163