River Flood Warning 86, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1253 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Edwards Plateau between
Del Rio and San Antonio is expected to impact the San Antonio area
airports within the next few hours. Storms are expected to expand
in coverage overnight and affect much of the area terminals as an
upper level disturbance moves over northeast Mexico and then pushes
towards the Rio Grande. MVFR conditions are expected across the
I-35 sites overnight through mid morning on Thursday. Some of
these storms are forecast to produce heavy rain and thunderstorm
wind gusts up to 30 knots. IFR Cigs/Vbsys are possible with
stronger storms. VFR conditions returns Thursday afternoon for a
short period of time as another round of showers and storms are
expected to once again affect the I-35 sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016/

..Widespread Heavy Rain Expected Overnight...

UPDATE...
Heavy rain is expected late tonight into Thursday across South-
Central Texas. An upper level low system currently over northeast
Mexico is forecast to slowly push to the east and into the Rio
Grande Plains by mid morning on Thursday. There are several short
wave disturbances embedded within the southwest flow aloft that
will keep storms pulsing once they develop. At lower levels,
several lingering outflow boundaries across the area are expected
to act as focus for new storms to develop overnight as the upper
level system approaches from the west. Low level wind flow is
expected to remain weak for the period and may result in training
cells producing episodes of heavy rain. With saturated soils due
to recent rains, will take little rainfall amounts for flash
flooding to occur. We are confident on the potential of heavy rain
for the overnight period out west across the Rio Grande Plains and
points to the east and southeast overnight/early Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts with strongest storms could produce 1 to
2 inches in a short period of time. Flash Flash Guidance shows 1
to 3 inches of rainfall for 1 to 3 hours forecast duration. These
amounts could easily be reached tonight. Once again, tonight's
biggest concern is rapid flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in
effect through Friday morning as we expect several rounds of
numerous to widespread showers and storms for the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move near and
across the I-35 terminals this evening and overnight. Several
outflow boundaries are expected to push across South-Central Texas
through Thursday morning with chances for numerous to widespread
showers and storms. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through
Thursday morning as storms pass and lower Cigs and Vbsys. Some of
these storms could be strong to severe as they push across the
area. Gusty winds up to 30 knots cant be rule out with stronger
storms. Cigs and Vbsys are expected to return to VFR conditions in
the afternoon for a short period. Shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected Thursday afternoon with Cigs mainly in the MVFR
category for much of the afternoon and evening time frame.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Upper low can be seen on water vapor just south of the AZ/NM
border. This is the system that will be coming into Texas over the
next several days bringing the continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms. This afternoon it appears that South Central Texas
is in between lift areas, one to the east near the TX/LA border
and more lift over the Edwards Plateau and the Big Bend. Will
continue with high pop and the wording of locally heavy rainfall
overnight. It appears from the latest meso models that a cluster
or MCS should develop out west and move through the central and
southern sections of the CWA. This risk of storms will continue to
be high on Thursday as the upper low moves into Texas and stalls
over Central Texas. The flood threat will remain high with
saturated soils. The pattern has shown breaks in the activity as
the large MCS systems do a good job in bringing stable area in
their wake. The timing and exact location of these systems will
still be problematic in giving any sort of forecast specifics.
Flooding threat will remain high. Cant rule out some Severe
Storms with a Marginal risk forecast by SPC. Marginal risk is
mainly south of the area on Thursday.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Both the European and GFS show the upper low stalling over the
area on Thursday Night through Saturday before drifting southwest
into Mexico over the weekend into early next week. Keeping with
the 3-5 inches, isolated 10 inch totals. WPC and models are
showing that much of the precip will be east and south of the area
but with the upper low centered over Texas we will run the
continued risk of daytime development of storms as well as night
time development if the low center develops more of a warm core.
By the start of next week the low is forecast to drift sw into
Mexico. This will take the majority of the lift with it with only
a 20 pop on Monday and no pop on Tuesday. Cant rule out some
isolated activity next week just due to residual moisture left
behind and daytime heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  66  81  66  80 /  80  60  60  40  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  66  81  66  81 /  80  60  60  40  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     81  66  83  66  81 /  80  60  60  40  60
Burnet Muni Airport            79  65  78  64  78 /  70  60  60  40  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           85  67  86  66  85 /  60  30  30  20  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        79  66  78  65  79 /  80  70  60  40  60
Hondo Muni Airport             82  65  83  66  80 /  70  50  50  30  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  66  81  66  80 /  80  60  60  40  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   80  68  81  68  81 /  80  60  60  50  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       81  66  82  67  80 /  80  60  60  40  60
Stinson Muni Airport           82  68  83  68  81 /  80  60  50  40  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...Blanco...Burnet...
Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...Dimmit...Edwards...Fayette...Frio...
Gillespie...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Kerr...
Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Llano...Maverick...Medina...Real...Travis...
Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...17
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen
Public Service/Data Collection...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
444 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-021000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
444 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH RATES
OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN RAPID FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...RAPID
RISES ON ALREADY ELEVATED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AND THE THREAT IS SIGNIFICANT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS
WITH RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE RATES IN COMBINATION
WITH SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN RAPID FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...
RAPID RISES ON ALREADY ELEVATED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE.
FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED POCKETS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ON SUNDAY AND THEN ISOLATED ON MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD WANE BY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT...A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND
60 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON
IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS DURING THIS WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
919 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ183-020300-
VAL VERDE TX-
919 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 918 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LANGTRY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LANGTRY AND SHUMLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2987 10168 2984 10130 2966 10136 2970 10137
      2975 10142 2977 10140 2975 10144 2978 10145
      2979 10147 2976 10154 2981 10154 2980 10157
      2977 10158 2977 10163 2976 10164 2977 10166
      2976 10171 2977 10171
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 285DEG 22KT 2977 10163

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
946 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ183-202-020330-
VAL VERDE TX-KINNEY TX-
946 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE AND
CENTRAL KINNEY COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 946 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMO VILLAGE TO AMANDA TO
NEAR DEL RIO. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BRACKETTVILLE...ALAMO
VILLAGE...STANDART...LAUGHLIN AFB...AND AMANDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2937 10072 2957 10052 2957 10011 2956 10011
      2931 10036 2919 10077 2926 10081 2926 10084
      2928 10087 2931 10089 2934 10094 2935 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 280DEG 9KT 2951 10050 2936 10064 2932 10087

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1018 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ183-184-020415-
EDWARDS TX-VAL VERDE TX-
1018 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE AND
SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1018 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR COMSTOCK TO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOX
CANYON-AMISTAD. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEL RIO...COMSTOCK...LAKE VIEW...VAL VERDE PARK...CIENEGAS TERRACE...
LAUGHLIN AFB...AMISTAD VILLAGE...BOX CANYON-AMISTAD...PAFFORD CROSSING...
ROUGH CANYON REC AREA AND DEVILS SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2960 10128 2960 10127 2961 10125 2963 10126
      2962 10128 2980 10125 2975 10060 2962 10064
      2962 10070 2945 10070 2924 10076 2928 10087
      2931 10089 2936 10100 2946 10106 2947 10115
      2952 10118 2953 10126 2957 10124
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 285DEG 28KT 2976 10120 2928 10130

MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1118 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRACKETTVILLE           29.32N 100.41W
06/01/2016                   KINNEY             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600534

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1124 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAUGHLIN AFB            29.36N 100.78W
06/01/2016  M67 MPH          VAL VERDE          TX   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600535

CVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ202-203-217-218-228-020630-
DIMMIT TX-ZAVALA TX-KINNEY TX-UVALDE TX-MAVERICK TX-
1230 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIMMIT...SOUTHERN UVALDE...
SOUTHEASTERN KINNEY...MAVERICK AND ZAVALA COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM
CDT...

AT 1228 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ANACACHO TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF COMETA
TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROSITA SOUTH. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRYSTAL CITY...CARRIZO SPRINGS...BIG WELLS...EL INDIO...LA PRYOR...
BATESVILLE...ASHERTON...CATARINA...GILSON GROVES...LOMA VISTA...BLEWETT...
ROSITA SOUTH...LIGHT...COMETA...CARRIZO HILL...LAS VEGAS...WINTER HAVEN...
WASHER...UVALDE ESTATES AND LAS COLONIAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2823 10022 2824 10026 2828 10029 2831 10028
      2840 10035 2845 10034 2848 10037 2850 10033
      2852 10039 2855 10041 2858 10040 2861 10045
      2864 10045 2866 10049 2923 10028 2913 9942
      2821 9940 2820 10021
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 307DEG 43KT 2917 10021 2876 10021 2847 10072

CP