Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
317 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Upper low can be seen on water vapor just south of the AZ/NM
border. This is the system that will be coming into Texas over the
next several days bringing the continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms. This afternoon it appears that South Central Texas
is in between lift areas, one to the east near the TX/LA border
and more lift over the Edwards Plateau and the Big Bend. Will
continue with high pop and the wording of locally heavy rainfall
overnight. It appears from the latest meso models that a cluster
or MCS should develop out west and move through the central and
southern sections of the CWA. This risk of storms will continue to
be high on Thursday as the upper low moves into Texas and stalls
over Central Texas. The flood threat will remain high with
saturated soils. The pattern has shown breaks in the activity as
the large MCS systems do a good job in bringing stable area in
their wake. The timing and exact location of these systems will
still be problematic in giving any sort of forecast specifics.
Flooding threat will remain high. Cant rule out some Severe
Storms with a Marginal risk forecast by SPC. Marginal risk is
mainly south of the area on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Both the European and GFS show the upper low stalling over the
area on Thursday Night through Saturday before drifting southwest
into Mexico over the weekend into early next week. Keeping with
the 3-5 inches, isolated 10 inch totals. WPC and models are
showing that much of the precip will be east and south of the area
but with the upper low centered over Texas we will run the
continued risk of daytime development of storms as well as night
time development if the low center develops more of a warm core.
By the start of next week the low is forecast to drift sw into
Mexico. This will take the majority of the lift with it with only
a 20 pop on Monday and no pop on Tuesday. Cant rule out some
isolated activity next week just due to residual moisture left
behind and daytime heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  81  66  81  66 /  70  80  60  60  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  81  66  81  66 /  70  80  60  60  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  81  66  83  66 /  70  80  60  60  40
Burnet Muni Airport            66  79  65  78  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           68  85  67  86  66 /  80  60  30  30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  79  66  78  65 /  70  80  70  60  40
Hondo Muni Airport             68  82  65  83  66 /  80  70  50  50  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  81  66  81  66 /  70  80  60  60  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  80  68  81  68 /  70  80  60  60  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  81  66  82  67 /  70  80  60  60  40
Stinson Muni Airport           70  82  68  83  68 /  70  80  60  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...Blanco...Burnet...
Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...Dimmit...Edwards...Fayette...Frio...
Gillespie...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Kerr...
Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Llano...Maverick...Medina...Real...Travis...
Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...09
Public Service/Data Collection...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
444 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-021000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
444 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH RATES
OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN RAPID FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...RAPID
RISES ON ALREADY ELEVATED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AND THE THREAT IS SIGNIFICANT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS
WITH RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE RATES IN COMBINATION
WITH SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN RAPID FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...
RAPID RISES ON ALREADY ELEVATED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE.
FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED POCKETS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ON SUNDAY AND THEN ISOLATED ON MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD WANE BY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT...A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND
60 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON
IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS DURING THIS WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
227 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ184-012015-
EDWARDS TX-
227 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM CDT...

AT 227 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ROCKSPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKSPRINGS AND DEVILS SINKHOLE STATE NATURAL AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3009 9996 3002 9997 3003 9999 2990 10000
      2989 10002 2985 10002 2985 10003 2981 10002
      2978 10003 2976 10003 2974 10053 3011 10054
      3018 10021
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 261DEG 11KT 2994 10024

AAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ184-012115-
EDWARDS TX-
329 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 328 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF ROCKSPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
EDWARDS COUNTY ALONG HWY 377 NORTHEAST OF ROCKSPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10008 3015 9997 3001 10027 3016 10039
      3029 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 234DEG 10KT 3013 10027