Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
318 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
In coordination with SPC, we have issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch along and northwest of a Junction to Uvalde to Del Rio line.
Showers and thunderstorms continued to develop over the Serranias
del Burro mountains to southwestern Texas. Strong instability and
shear are noted across our area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Have issued a Flash Flood Watch for areas along and east of a
Burnet to Boerne to San Antonio to Karnes City line for this
afternoon through late tonight. A surface boundary from morning
rains over Central Texas is slowly drifting south along the I-35
corridor and provided lift to generate showers and thunderstorms.
PWS have risen to near 2 inches across the Hill Country and South
Central Texas tapering to near 1.5 inches along the Rio Grande.
Due to earlier clearing skies allowing convective temperatures to
be reached, showers and thunderstorms have developed out west from
the Serranias del Burro of Mexico across the Big Bend into
southwestern Texas. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue
across the eastern areas with locally heavy rains causing some
flooding this afternoon into evening. Showers and thunderstorms
out west will organize and move east across our area this evening
into the overnight hours. This will cause another round of locally
heavy rains. With the rains ongoing in the east adding to the
saturated soils...the threat for flooding will continue into the
overnight hours especially across eastern areas. An upper level
trough will move northeast across the plains states on Wednesday
forcing a dryline into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains
on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and east
of the dryline. More locally heavy rains are possible with PWS
near 1.8 inches east of I-35. CAPEs of 2000 to 4000 j/kg and 0-6
km shear will allow for strong to severe storms this afternoon
through Friday evening.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
A series of upper level impulses will move across the southern
tier of states. A moist and unstable airmass lingers over our area
due to a persistent southeasterly lower flow off the Gulf of
Mexico. As a result, periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected Saturday through Thursday. Similar to the short term, a
few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rains with flooding
are possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  85  73  90  73 /  60  60  40  30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  85  72  89  72 /  60  60  40  30  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  87  72  88  73 /  50  60  30  30  20
Burnet Muni Airport            71  85  71  88  71 /  60  60  30  30  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  95  71  90  73 /  60  10  10  40  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  84  72  89  71 /  60  60  40  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73  91  73  90  73 /  60  30  20  30  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  86  72  88  72 /  50  60  30  30  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  85  75  88  73 /  50  70  40  30  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  87  74  88  73 /  60  40  20  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           75  90  75  90  75 /  60  40  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following counties:
Bastrop...Bexar...Blanco...Burnet...Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...
Fayette...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Lavaca...
Lee...Travis...Williamson...Wilson.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...04
Public Service/Data Collection...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
540 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-272245-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
540 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE ALL AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERE
WEATHER...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
GIDDINGS TO SEGUIN TO DILLEY LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
RISK...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR COUNTIES ALONG
AND EAST OF A BURNET TO BOERNE TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY LINE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN ALONG AND
EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS INTACT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
443 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ173-193-194-262300-
WILLIAMSON TX-BASTROP TX-LEE TX-
443 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BASTROP...
SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 440 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
ACROSS LEE COUNTY AND PARTS OF WILLIAMSON AND BASTROP
COUNTIES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELGIN...GIDDINGS...LEXINGTON...FEDOR...CIRCLE D-KC ESTATES...CIRCLE D-KC
ESTATE...DIME BOX...PAIGE...TANGLEWOOD...CAMP SWIFT...NORTHRUP...MCDADE...
OLD DIME BOX...LEO...MANHEIM...BLUE...KNOBB SPRINGS...LOEBAU...LINCOLN AND
SERBIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3025 9669 3024 9674 3020 9674 3011 9685
      3003 9702 3005 9703 3004 9704 3015 9724
      3031 9744 3042 9737 3057 9721 3046 9715
      3056 9696 3054 9693 3046 9690 3039 9679
      3032 9674 3032 9669 3029 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 236DEG 28KT 3036 9693

TB3

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
447 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ183-262230-
VAL VERDE TX-
447 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 445 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANDALE...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF LANGTRY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PANDALE AND HACKBERRY CROSSING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3028 10176 3029 10175 3029 10132 2997 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 223DEG 28KT 3012 10171

PLATT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ183-270000-
VAL VERDE TX-
630 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

AT 630 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SEMINOLE CANYON STATE PARK...OR 7 MILES WEST OF COMSTOCK...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COMSTOCK...SEMINOLE CANYON STATE PARK...SHUMLA...PAFFORD CROSSING...
DEVILS RIVER STATE NATURAL AREA...ROUGH CANYON REC AREA AND DEVILS
SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2991 10097 2955 10090 2954 10126 2957 10124
      2962 10125 2963 10126 2962 10128 2957 10129
      2959 10131 2965 10130 2966 10134 2965 10136
      2970 10137 2976 10141 2977 10140 2981 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 259DEG 27KT 2968 10130

AAT