Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
318 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
In coordination with SPC, we have issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch along and northwest of a Junction to Uvalde to Del Rio line.
Showers and thunderstorms continued to develop over the Serranias
del Burro mountains to southwestern Texas. Strong instability and
shear are noted across our area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Have issued a Flash Flood Watch for areas along and east of a
Burnet to Boerne to San Antonio to Karnes City line for this
afternoon through late tonight. A surface boundary from morning
rains over Central Texas is slowly drifting south along the I-35
corridor and provided lift to generate showers and thunderstorms.
PWS have risen to near 2 inches across the Hill Country and South
Central Texas tapering to near 1.5 inches along the Rio Grande.
Due to earlier clearing skies allowing convective temperatures to
be reached, showers and thunderstorms have developed out west from
the Serranias del Burro of Mexico across the Big Bend into
southwestern Texas. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue
across the eastern areas with locally heavy rains causing some
flooding this afternoon into evening. Showers and thunderstorms
out west will organize and move east across our area this evening
into the overnight hours. This will cause another round of locally
heavy rains. With the rains ongoing in the east adding to the
saturated soils...the threat for flooding will continue into the
overnight hours especially across eastern areas. An upper level
trough will move northeast across the plains states on Wednesday
forcing a dryline into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains
on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and east
of the dryline. More locally heavy rains are possible with PWS
near 1.8 inches east of I-35. CAPEs of 2000 to 4000 j/kg and 0-6
km shear will allow for strong to severe storms this afternoon
through Friday evening.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
A series of upper level impulses will move across the southern
tier of states. A moist and unstable airmass lingers over our area
due to a persistent southeasterly lower flow off the Gulf of
Mexico. As a result, periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected Saturday through Thursday. Similar to the short term, a
few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rains with flooding
are possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  85  73  90  73 /  60  60  40  30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  85  72  89  72 /  60  60  40  30  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  87  72  88  73 /  50  60  30  30  20
Burnet Muni Airport            71  85  71  88  71 /  60  60  30  30  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  95  71  90  73 /  60  10  10  40  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  84  72  89  71 /  60  60  40  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73  91  73  90  73 /  60  30  20  30  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  86  72  88  72 /  50  60  30  30  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  85  75  88  73 /  50  70  40  30  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  87  74  88  73 /  60  40  20  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           75  90  75  90  75 /  60  40  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following counties:
Bastrop...Bexar...Blanco...Burnet...Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...
Fayette...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Lavaca...
Lee...Travis...Williamson...Wilson.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...04
Public Service/Data Collection...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
446 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-271000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
446 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
FOR AREAS WEST OF A PEARSALL TO SAN ANTONIO TO GEORGETOWN LINE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISK...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD
RESULT IN FLOODING.

STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN ACTIVE
PERIOD REMAINS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
132 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ191>193-208-261915-
BASTROP TX-CALDWELL TX-TRAVIS TX-HAYS TX-
132 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BASTROP...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS AND SOUTHEASTERN HAYS
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 132 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
UHLAND...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN MARCOS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...SAN MARCOS...LOCKHART...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...TANGLEWOOD
FOREST...KYLE...BUDA...MARTINDALE...UHLAND...MUSTANG RIDGE...NIEDERWALD...
CEDAR CREEK...WYLDWOOD...ONION CREEK...SHADY HOLLOW...MOUNTAIN CITY...SAN
LEANNA...HAYS...CREEDMOOR AND DEL VALLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO.

&&

LAT...LON 2978 9776 3000 9806 3033 9767 3009 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 224DEG 30KT 2996 9783

TB3

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
353 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ194-262145-
LEE TX-
353 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LEE COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 352 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
DIME BOX...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. ADDITIONALLY...RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GIDDINGS...LEXINGTON...FEDOR...DIME BOX...TANGLEWOOD...NORTHRUP...OLD DIME
BOX...LEO...MANHEIM...BLUE...KNOBB SPRINGS...LOEBAU...LINCOLN...SERBIN AND
HILLS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3025 9669 3024 9674 3020 9674 3011 9685
      3003 9702 3026 9708 3034 9720 3040 9733
      3045 9717 3056 9696 3054 9692 3046 9690
      3046 9688 3043 9687 3039 9679 3032 9674
      3032 9669 3029 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 235DEG 31KT 3036 9691

TB3