Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
424 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY POORLY HANDLED BY
THE HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE SO RELIANCE ON THEM THIS SHIFT HAS
BEEN MINIMAL. LATEST IR TRENDS SHOW THE CURRENT STORM TOPS FINALLY
WARMING AS OF 08Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX PRODUCING OUTFLOWS THAT HAVE TRAVERSED
THE CWA...STABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
STORM CHANCES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY LIMITED BY STRONG CAPPING.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN VAL VERDE AND
EDWARDS COUNTIES BUT WEAK 850MB FLOW...A LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LIFTING...AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S VIA
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.

THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH TEXAS AND STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH LIFTING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
PARCELS WILL STILL BE BATTLING WITH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SO
CONTINUE TO THINK THIS THREAT WILL BE MOSTLY ISOLATED AND FAVOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND AND A PACIFIC LOW COMING
ONSHORE AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE PATTERN BY SUNDAY. BOTH LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF GENERATION JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE CWA.

DISAGREEMENTS EXIST IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ENTERING
MONDAY BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF TO A LESSER EXTENT ADVERTISE A
BROAD SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING QPF GENERATION IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS GIVEN THE LACK OF ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT. DID NOT VENTURE BEYOND 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT.

BEYOND MONDAY...MORE PATTERN DISAGREEMENTS EXIST IN THE GFS AND
EURO WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WAVE MID WEEK AND HANDLING OF A
MUCH DEEPER PACIFIC LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE TO COME ON THESE
WITH MORE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  70  86  67  86 /  20  30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  69  85  66  85 /  20  30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  70  86  67  87 /  20  20  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  68  84  65  83 /  20  30  40  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  72  92  69  89 /  20  10  30  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  69  84  65  84 /  20  30  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  70  89  68  89 /  20  10  20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  70  85  67  86 /  20  20  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  71  86  69  86 /  20  20  30  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  86  69  87 /  20  10  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  71  88  70  88 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ204>207-110930-
GUADALUPE TX-COMAL TX-BEXAR TX-MEDINA TX-
341 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEXAR...SOUTHWESTERN COMAL...
SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE AND EAST CENTRAL MEDINA COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM
CDT...

AT 340 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FAIR OAKS RANCH TO NEAR SHAVANO PARK TO
LACKLAND AFB TO NEAR CASTROVILLE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SMALL HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...UNIVERSAL CITY...CASTROVILLE...SCHERTZ...
CIBOLO...LIVE OAK...LEON VALLEY...KIRBY...ALAMO HEIGHTS...FAIR OAKS RANCH...
SELMA...WINDCREST...CANYON LAKE...TERRELL HILLS...BULVERDE...GARDEN RIDGE...
HOLLYWOOD PARK...SHAVANO PARK AND LYTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO.

&&

LAT...LON 2925 9880 2922 9881 2930 9901 2941 9867
      2954 9861 2975 9864 2982 9856 2976 9815
      2944 9813 2923 9831 2915 9852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 287DEG 21KT 2974 9858 2953 9855 2940 9861 2931
9888

TB3

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
429 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ205-207-221-111015-
WILSON TX-GUADALUPE TX-BEXAR TX-
429 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BEXAR...SOUTHWESTERN
GUADALUPE AND NORTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 429 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KIRBY...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...SCHERTZ...KIRBY...ALAMO HEIGHTS...TERRELL HILLS...OLMOS
PARK...ST. HEDWIG...ELMENDORF...LA VERNIA...NEW BERLIN...CALAVERAS LAKE...
SUTHERLAND SPRINGS...ZUEHL...SAYERS...SOUTHTON...ADKINS...PARITA...
MARTINEZ...BUENA VISTA AND BRAUNIG LAKE.

LAT...LON 2924 9848 2947 9852 2950 9799 2936 9793
      2923 9799
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 271DEG 25KT 2938 9836

HAMPSHIRE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
501 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ205-111045-
BEXAR TX-
501 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BEXAR COUNTY UNTIL
545 AM CDT...

AT 501 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LACKLAND AFB...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...KIRBY...ALAMO HEIGHTS...TERRELL HILLS...OLMOS PARK...
ELMENDORF...LACKLAND AFB...VON ORMY...SOUTHTON...MANGUS CORNER...MARTINEZ...
MITCHELL LAKE...BUENA VISTA...MACDONA...BRAUNIG LAKE AND BROOKS CITY
BASE.

LAT...LON 2927 9874 2945 9874 2949 9830 2923 9831
      2922 9832
TIME...MOT...LOC 1001Z 271DEG 17KT 2937 9866

HAMPSHIRE

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