Alert archive / Texas / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

May 11, 2016Wilson County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this special weather statement at May 11, 2016, 4:29 AM CDT for Wilson County, Texas. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 11, 2016, 4:29 AM CDT (09:29 UTC)
Expired: May 11, 2016, 5:15 AM CDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

County Wilson County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 199 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1875 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -161 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 748 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 7 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 11, 4:24 AM CDT, 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 11, 4:24 AM CDT, 5 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
424 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY POORLY HANDLED BY
THE HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE SO RELIANCE ON THEM THIS SHIFT HAS
BEEN MINIMAL. LATEST IR TRENDS SHOW THE CURRENT STORM TOPS FINALLY
WARMING AS OF 08Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX PRODUCING OUTFLOWS THAT HAVE TRAVERSED
THE CWA...STABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
STORM CHANCES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY LIMITED BY STRONG CAPPING.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN VAL VERDE AND
EDWARDS COUNTIES BUT WEAK 850MB FLOW...A LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LIFTING...AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S VIA
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.

THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH TEXAS AND STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH LIFTING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
PARCELS WILL STILL BE BATTLING WITH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SO
CONTINUE TO THINK THIS THREAT WILL BE MOSTLY ISOLATED AND FAVOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND AND A PACIFIC LOW COMING
ONSHORE AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE PATTERN BY SUNDAY. BOTH LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF GENERATION JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE CWA.

DISAGREEMENTS EXIST IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ENTERING
MONDAY BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF TO A LESSER EXTENT ADVERTISE A
BROAD SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING QPF GENERATION IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS GIVEN THE LACK OF ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT. DID NOT VENTURE BEYOND 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT.

BEYOND MONDAY...MORE PATTERN DISAGREEMENTS EXIST IN THE GFS AND
EURO WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WAVE MID WEEK AND HANDLING OF A
MUCH DEEPER PACIFIC LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE TO COME ON THESE
WITH MORE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  70  86  67  86 /  20  30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  69  85  66  85 /  20  30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  70  86  67  87 /  20  20  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  68  84  65  83 /  20  30  40  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  72  92  69  89 /  20  10  30  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  69  84  65  84 /  20  30  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  70  89  68  89 /  20  10  20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  70  85  67  86 /  20  20  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  71  86  69  86 /  20  20  30  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  86  69  87 /  20  10  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  71  88  70  88 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3

Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 2:52 PM CDT, 13 hours 37 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
252 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-112000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
252 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM
CDT...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY
INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METROPOLITAN AREA...

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR (INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METROPOLITAN AREA) THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING
RESULTING IN VERY LARGE HAIL FORMATION...UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
(2 2/3 INCHES) WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MILES PER HOUR AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND MOVE EASTWARD IMPACTING AREAS NEAR
THE RIVER INCLUDING DEL RIO AND EAGLE PASS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 11, 1:01 AM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
101 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ186-110630-
KERR TX-
101 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KERR COUNTY UNTIL
130 AM CDT...

AT 101 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF KERR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...OR 22 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF JUNCTION...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNTAIN HOME...I-10 NEAR THE KIMBLE-KERR COUNTY LINE AND THE
INTERSECTION OF I-10 AND US 290.

LAT...LON 3029 9932 3007 9934 3012 9966 3029 9965
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 272DEG 9KT 3021 9958

HAMPSHIRE

Special weather statement, May 11, 1:29 AM CDT, 3 hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
129 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ171-110700-
LLANO TX-
129 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LLANO COUNTY UNTIL 200 AM
CDT...

AT 129 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CASTELL...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LLANO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LLANO...PRAIRIE MOUNTAIN...OXFORD AND CASTELL.

LAT...LON 3057 9859 3052 9896 3072 9896 3083 9868
TIME...MOT...LOC 0629Z 253DEG 14KT 3063 9894

HAMPSHIRE

Local storm report, May 11, 2:17 AM CDT, 2 hours 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
217 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     HAIL             4 SSE INGRAM            30.02N  99.21W
05/11/2016  E1.00 INCH       KERR               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED BY A SPOTTER ON MACKAY
            DRIVE IN KERRVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600351

TB3

Special weather statement, May 11, 3:41 AM CDT, 48 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ204>207-110930-
GUADALUPE TX-COMAL TX-BEXAR TX-MEDINA TX-
341 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEXAR...SOUTHWESTERN COMAL...
SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE AND EAST CENTRAL MEDINA COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM
CDT...

AT 340 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FAIR OAKS RANCH TO NEAR SHAVANO PARK TO
LACKLAND AFB TO NEAR CASTROVILLE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SMALL HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...UNIVERSAL CITY...CASTROVILLE...SCHERTZ...
CIBOLO...LIVE OAK...LEON VALLEY...KIRBY...ALAMO HEIGHTS...FAIR OAKS RANCH...
SELMA...WINDCREST...CANYON LAKE...TERRELL HILLS...BULVERDE...GARDEN RIDGE...
HOLLYWOOD PARK...SHAVANO PARK AND LYTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO.

&&

LAT...LON 2925 9880 2922 9881 2930 9901 2941 9867
      2954 9861 2975 9864 2982 9856 2976 9815
      2944 9813 2923 9831 2915 9852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 287DEG 21KT 2974 9858 2953 9855 2940 9861 2931
9888

TB3

Special weather statement, May 11, 4:29 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
429 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ205-207-221-111015-
WILSON TX-GUADALUPE TX-BEXAR TX-
429 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BEXAR...SOUTHWESTERN
GUADALUPE AND NORTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 429 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KIRBY...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...SCHERTZ...KIRBY...ALAMO HEIGHTS...TERRELL HILLS...OLMOS
PARK...ST. HEDWIG...ELMENDORF...LA VERNIA...NEW BERLIN...CALAVERAS LAKE...
SUTHERLAND SPRINGS...ZUEHL...SAYERS...SOUTHTON...ADKINS...PARITA...
MARTINEZ...BUENA VISTA AND BRAUNIG LAKE.

LAT...LON 2924 9848 2947 9852 2950 9799 2936 9793
      2923 9799
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 271DEG 25KT 2938 9836

HAMPSHIRE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 7:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Maverick	52 min
May 10, 8:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Burnet	43 min
May 10, 9:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Williamson	52 min
May 11, 1:01 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Kerr	29 min
May 11, 1:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Gillespie, Kerr	64 min
May 11, 1:29 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Llano	31 min
May 11, 1:57 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bandera, Kerr, Medina	33 min
May 11, 3:41 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bexar	49 min
May 11, 4:23 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bexar	3 hr
May 11, 5:01 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bexar	44 min
May 11, 5:05 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bexar, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Wilson	55 min
May 11, 6:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bexar	46 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Texas, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.