Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

Line of thunderstorms are approaching the NW portions of MO this
afternoon and will continue to progress across the forecast area
through this evening. Initial convection looks to be sub- to
marginally severe but there will be a few hours late this afternoon
into this evening where the diurnally-driven instability will
coincide with increasing shear values. While the better shear values
generally look to lag behind the front, SPC's mesoanalysis page has
been indicating an uptick in effective bulk shear ahead of the
approaching convection. Of note, lapse rates haven't been terribly
impressive. When putting it all together, what we're looking at
impacts wise is the potential for storms through sunset to become
strong to marginally severe, transitioning more into a hydro concern
across the southern half of the forecast area after sunset. Despite
the front remaining generally progressive, it looks to slow as it
drops southward, and combining the efficient rain that these storms
will produce with the possibility of training, could see an
additional inch plus falling in a short amount of time in places that
already picked up 1" to 3"+ early this morning. PWAT values are
currently running just shy of the 2 inch mark across the southern
forecast area, which is right in line with the max moving average for
the day, right around the daily max. In other words, a very juicy
atmosphere out there for early September.

MUCH drier air will be advecting in behind the front for this
weekend, keeping the skies rather clear. Temps will be running below
normal for this time of year, allowing for a beautiful weekend to
unfold. However, rain chances quickly return, particularly for the
western third of the forecast area by early next week. Ridging in the
southern U.S. plus shortwaves cruising through looks to keep the
pattern somewhat active through the middle of next week before
another cold front traverses through and another (at least) brief
period of cool, dry weather greets the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

VFR conditions currently prevail at the temrianls, but this wont
last long as a broken line of thunderstorms is sweeping southeast
with a cold front that will move through overnight. Expect storms to
be an issue at the terminals through 04Z at the latest with clearing
skies after that. North winds will prevail through Saturday.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ057-060.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ043>046-053-
     054.

&&

Discussion...lg
Aviation...Cutter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
503 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
503 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN THREATS ARE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL
UP TO QUARTER-SIZE. TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL.

WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING COULD
BE A CONCERN MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. STORM CHANCES RETURN
MONDAY EVENING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

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