Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
353 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 352 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Weak surface trough currently over northern Missouri drawing
southerly winds across the eastern half of the CWA, with northerly
winds nosing into northwestern Missouri along the leading edge of a
surface ridge. Expect cooler and drier air to move into the area
behind this cold front. Already there have been a few marginally
strong storms forming within a fairly juicy atmosphere characterized
by temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s. The resultant instability appears to be in the 1500 to 2500
J/kg MLCAPE range. Within the ambient northwest flow aloft there
will be a shortwave trough digging into the area through the
evening. This will help to supply some mid level support for ascent
over this aforementioned charged up atmosphere. Effective bulk shear
values of around 30 to 40 kts, especially in northern and central
Missouri could help aid in updraft maintenance, bringing a chance
for organized and possibly severe thunderstorms. Hail and wind are
the primary concerns considering the lack of low level flow at the
surface. By later tonight the frontal boundary should be south and
west of the forecast area, lending to mostly dry conditions through
the day on Friday. The best and likely only chance for rain will be
across southeastern/east central Kansas and southwestern/west
central Missouri, but overall it appears rain will be mostly located
across southern Kansas for Friday.

That frontal boundary will then lift northward on Friday night and
Saturday morning in response to a shortwave trough working its way
into the flow from the Pacific southwest. As the trough works
through the 4-corners region it will help lift that boundary north.
Supplemented with moisture on the order of 2+ inches of precipitable
water ingredients will be in place for a fairly prolonged moderate
to heavy rain event across the area. The boundary itself will likely
wobble a bit to the north and south through the weekend, but will
likely remain between HWY 36 and Interstate 44. As the trough slowly
meanders out of the mountainous southwest and into the high/central
plains it will generally trek along the boundary, which will cause
widespread moderate to heavy rain. With mid level flow favoring a
direction generally along and/or parallel to the boundary storms
will continue to form and train over the same area through Saturday
and most of Sunday. The result of the high moisture as well as the
mesoscale factors of the low level focus for storms will likely be a
widespread area of 3 to 6 inch rain amounts with perhaps some
localized areas of larger amounts. Confidence is growing to a medium
to high level that this prolonged moderate to heavy rain will occur
generally along the I-70/Missouri River corridor plus or minus 50
miles either side (north or south) of that corridor. With a decent
amount of confidence in river and stream flooding as well as some
flash flooding from rain rates approaching 2+ inches per hour for
periods of time have continue the Flash Flood Watch through Sunday
night, and have added 3 counties to the watch, namely Linn (KS),
Bates, and Henry. By Sunday night the trough should be off to the
east and out of the area, thus gradually ending chances for rain
from west to east.

For the 4th of July holiday the boundary should be south of the
area, and some shortwave ridging will take place over the forecast
area, which should minimize chance for rain for Independence day.
The next system could bring some rain back to the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Next few hours should see increasing chances for thunderstorm
activity, but chances will likely dwindle toward sunset as the front
approaches. The front could linger until 00z, but likely will be
through the terminal before that. Otherwise VFR anticipated through
the rest of the forecast.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Sunday night
     for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Sunday night
     for MOZ011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
517 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
517 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW STORMS
 COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FLASH
 FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
352 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

MOZ043-302115-
CASS MO-
352 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CASS COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...

AT 352 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PLEASANT HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARRISONVILLE...PLEASANT HILL...EAST LYNNE...
BALDWIN PARK AND GUNN CITY.

LAT...LON 3850 9434 3876 9444 3883 9427 3868 9413
      3866 9413 3865 9412 3861 9412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 323DEG 18KT 3875 9432

WELSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
355 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

MOZ005-006-015-302145-
HARRISON MO-GRUNDY MO-MERCER MO-
355 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MERCER...EAST CENTRAL
HARRISON AND NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 355 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CAINSVILLE...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF LEON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRINCETON...CAINSVILLE...SPICKARD...MOUNT MORIAH...TINDALL...
MODENA AND MILL GROVE.

LAT...LON 4028 9336 4024 9336 4013 9368 4044 9387
      4046 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 327DEG 26KT 4050 9373

WELSH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
451 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

MOZ043-053-054-302215-
HENRY MO-BATES MO-CASS MO-
451 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CASS...EASTERN BATES
AND SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 451 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CREIGHTON...OR 10 MILES EAST OF ADRIAN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ADRIAN...URICH...DEEPWATER...MONTROSE...CREIGHTON...HARTWELL...
BALLARD AND LA DUE.

LAT...LON 3844 9438 3852 9401 3826 9374 3821 9390
      3821 9405 3815 9405 3811 9418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 320DEG 38KT 3839 9417

WELSH