Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1239 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Short Term...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Low level ridging has built into AR and ERN TX creating a weak low
level jet at 925hPa, which extends from NRN TX up into WRN MO. This
is producing isentropic accent in the lower levels, 900-800hPa, in
two distinct areas of the CWA, the W and NE portions. These
boundaries are visible on the 305K surface and slowly progress to
the east weakening with daytime heating. This accent coupled with
some weak CAPE have produced scattered thunderstorms over the region,
but low CAPE values have kept everything sub-severe. The PoPs have
been adjusted to account for this non-severe nocturnal convection.

A cold front extending through central MN will advect southward to
lie just north of the CWA Thursday afternoon into the evening. This
will produce added forcing for afternoon convection over most of the
CWA. A MCV associated with the MCS over Nebraska currently, also
moves over the CWA with similar timing to the cold front providing
even more dynamics to develop scattered thunderstorms through through
Thursday night. With surface based CAPE near 1500 J/kg and 0-6km
shear of 30kts there is a chance for these storms to become severe
with the main impacts being large hail and strong winds.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Confidence continues to increase on a potentially serious heavy
rain/flash flood threat Saturday and Sunday with the possibility
that several areas could see 3 to 5 inches of rain, possibly even
more. This is particularly concerning given the holiday weekend
and the numerous outdoor activities that will be going on.

Meteorologically speaking, all models continue to point to nearly
perfect conditions coming together for a widespread heavy rain/flood
event: A strong low-level jet feeding abnormally high moisture into
a quasi-stationary boundary, a plume of deep tropical moisture off
the Pacific, persistent synoptic-scale ascent within the right-
entrance region of an upper jet, boundary-parallel storm motion
giving the potential for training storms, and tropical-like
precipitation efficiency with very high precipitable water,
tall/thin CAPE profiles and deep warm cloud layer depth. Given these
factors it is not surprising that models have been consistently
producing an east-west oriented swath of 4 to 7 inch rainfall across
parts of Kansas and Missouri which would lead to numerous flooding
problems. The only factor acting against flooding is the recent dry
spell, but Saturday's rains alone could easily saturate soils
leading to excessive runoff conditions by Sunday. The main question
now is exactly where this heavy rain axis sets up, with models
continuing to fluctuate between the I-70 corridor and the
Missouri/Iowa border, and some indications that it could even go
back further south.

Despite the lingering uncertainty as to where the highest amounts
will fall, the potential severity of this rainfall event over a
holiday weekend when many people will be outside (camping trips etc)
warrants an extra heads up for planning purposes. Therefore we will
go ahead with an early flash flood watch beginning Friday night and
continuing through early Monday. For now the watch excludes far
northern and southern portions of the forecast area since these
areas are more questionable to see the heaviest rains given the
model fluctuations. Future trends will be assessed to see if any of
these counties need to be added.

By Monday a deepening low riding along the boundary should be
passing east of the area, with lingering rain chances Monday morning
over central MO and drying conditions further west. This will leave
Monday as the only potentially salvageable day for any outdoor
activities over the holiday weekend. However, with quazi-zonal upper
flow continuing into the middle of next week, precipitation chances
could return to the area as early as Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Height rises next week will also bring a return to heat with highs
in the 90s by Wednesday, likely accompanied by high humidity after
this weekend's rain.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Next few hours should see increasing chances for thunderstorm
activity, but chances will likely dwindle toward sunset as the front
approaches. The front could linger until 00z, but likely will be
through the terminal before that. Otherwise VFR anticipated through
the rest of the forecast.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Sunday night
     for KSZ025-057-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Sunday night
     for MOZ011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046.

&&

Short Term...Barham
Long Term...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Leighton

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
517 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
517 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW STORMS
 COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FLASH
 FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1249 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

KSZ025-102-MOZ011-012-020-301830-
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN KS-BUCHANAN MO-ANDREW MO-HOLT MO-
1249 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DONIPHAN...NORTHEASTERN
ATCHISON...SOUTHWESTERN ANDREW...CENTRAL BUCHANAN AND SOUTHEASTERN
HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1248 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR TROY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. JOSEPH...ATCHISON...WATHENA...ELWOOD...TROY...
COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...COUNTRY CLUB...AMAZONIA...RUSHVILLE...
LEWIS AND CLARK VILLAGE...DONIPHAN...DE KALB...BENDENA...FANNING...
LEWIS AND CLARK VI AND ST. JOSEPH AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 40 AND 52...AND BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 66 AND 69.
 INTERSTATE 229 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 13.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9503 3976 9470 3953 9489 3953 9515
      3990 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 333DEG 26KT 3987 9511

LEIGHTON