Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1207 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

A strong low level jet will develop tonight over Plains. Strong
moisture transport coupled with strong and focused isentropic ascent
should help thunderstorms develop over Kansas and Nebraska. This
area of storms will track to the east and should be moving into
northwestern Missouri around sunrise, give or take an hour or two.
It's likely this area of storms will be weakening as it is moving
into the forecast area and continue to weaken through the late
morning hours. But there may be enough lift and elevated instability
to produce a few marginally severe storms as they are moving into
the area. However, the better chance for anything severe will be
during the afternoon and evening hours. Activity for this time will
be largely dependent on where the morning activity tracks and how
strong it remains later in the day. But for now, it looks like the
morning activity will weaken across northern Missouri and allow for
moderate to strong instability to develop by the afternoon. Forecast
soundings throughout the forecast area show potential for 3000 to
4000 J/kg of CAPE over mainly the eastern portions of the forecast
area. Shear looks marginal, at least earlier in the afternoon, but
should increase into the evening hours as stronger winds aloft,
associated with the upper shortwave, begin to impinge on the area.
Also, winds at the surface and low levels will be veering with time
through the afternoon as the cold front approaches. However, over
the northeastern portion of the forecast area, surface winds may be
backed to the southeast as they will be to the east/northeast of the
surface low. So overall, the best chances for severe storms, and
potentially a few supercells, will be over the northeastern sections
of the forecast area. Further southwest, where winds are more veered
and shear is generally weaker, more multicellular storms are likely.
The biggest hazards from these storms will be from large hail and
damaging winds. The system looks progressive enough that widespread
flood is unlikely, but with anomalously high precipitable water
values locally high amounts and/or rates are likely which would lead
to more of an isolated flash flood threat.

Moisture will be scoured out well to our south in the wake of this
front and as result, we should see some drying out on Thursday.
Another upper shortwave trough and associated front will move
through the area Friday. This should spread another chance for
showers and a few storms to the area. But overall, moisture looks
much more limited than Wednesday, limiting coverage and especially
amounts.

More showers and storms are expected next week with what looks like
a stalled frontal boundary in the region. A broad trough will slowly
move across the region in the first part of next week and provide
enough forcing to give us a good chance for showers and storms.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

Complicated TAF period period as warm front currently draped along
the OK/KS and MO/AR border begins to lift north. Thunderstorms have
already begun to ignite along this boundary and are expected to move
northward into the area between 9-12Z. In addition, thunderstorms
across Nebraska and portions of Kansas will move eastward and
eventually merge with the warm front activity. This initial wave of
convection will quickly move through the region with some scattered
light showers behind it. Another round of thunderstorms is expected
to develop along the cold front that will approach the region in the
afternoon. Once the cold front moves through, winds will veer from
southeasterly to northwesterly.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...PMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
202 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111915-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
202 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING
 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING BY THE LATE MORNING. STORMS WILL THEN
 REDEVELOP IN THE MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS
 WITHIN THIS SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SEVERE, WITH
 LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN IMPACTS. ISOLATED
 TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
 NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND
 10PM FOR MOST AREAS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

KSZ060-110845-
LINN KS-
321 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LINN COUNTY UNTIL 345 AM
CDT...

AT 320 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MOUND CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLEASANTON...MOUND CITY AND PRESCOTT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3804 9498 3833 9495 3830 9461 3804 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 0820Z 205DEG 16KT 3814 9481

32