Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
655 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Short Term (Today through Saturday night):

Severe weather will be likely this evening into tonight with all
modes of severe weather possible. Storms that have fired this morning
in a uncapped environment of strong instability between 2000-4000
J/Kg of MUCAPE have continued to fire along subsequent outflow
boundaries and consequently severe storms have persist into the
afternoon. 0-1km shear has been weak however, 0-6km remains strong
between 40-50kts. This strong 0-6km shear is expected to continue
into this evening/tonight as is the aforementioned strong
instability. A warm front analyzed extending from a surface low out
across swrn Kansas extends to near the KS/NE border and into the KC
Metro. This is allowing winds to be backed at the surface and despite
weak low- level shear may still be sufficient to allow tornadoes to
develop. As the event unfolds, supercellular storms from this
afternoon are expected to congeal into a linear mode with winds being
the main threat however with surface winds remaining backed,
tornadoes along the line may still be possible. Also, of concern is
the potential for flash flooding as PWAT values of of 1.75"-2.25"
exist across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models hint that
storms may become anchored on the surface warming front with training
of storms possible. Couple the high PWATs, with previous rainfall
over the past few days and the potential for training...flash
flooding is a threat. Consequently a flash flood watch has been
issued through 18Z tomorrow. Storms are expected to weaken after
midnight be still persist into tomorrow morning. Storms and cloud
cover that persist into the morning hours tomorrow should help to
limit instability tomorrow. Although scattered thunderstorms are
possible throughout the day tomorrow stronger storm are not likely
until later in the evening. This will occur as the upper level trough
moves into western Plains and fires storms along a cold front/dryline
across western Kansas. These storms will progress eastward and move
into the western CWA in a weakened form tomorrow night. On Saturday,
the upper level trough moves into the eastern Plains and weakens but
forces a cold front through the CWA. A few storms could be strong if
conditions could destabilize in the afternoon/evening otherwise
storms will remain sub-severe.

Extended Term: (Sunday through Thursday):

Sunday the upper level trough will swing through the Midwest
however, the cold front will have pushes east of the area and most
of the day should remain dry. However, dry conditions will be short-
lived. As we get into Sunday, the synoptic set-up become very
similar to the one we experienced early this week with a upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS and the local area under
southwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave is expected to eject out from
the southwestern trough and move into the region late Sunday/Sunday
night sparking another round of convection. Conditions will remain
unsettled as we move into next week as several shortwaves eject out
from the slow moving southwestern trough, continuing thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Convection continues to impact the region and is anticipated to
persist into the overnight hours as multiple rounds come through.
Therefore, have -TSRA mention for the terminals through about 08Z,
then VCTS mention into the early morning hours. Look for ceilings to
lower in the pre-dawn hours for a few hours. Showers and
thunderstorms could be possible again tomorrow but will forgo mention
for this issuance as will need to grasp a better picture of specific
impacts to terminals as that time approaches.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MOZ001>004-
     011>013-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...lg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
144 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271845-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
144 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A TORNADIC
THREAT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. FLOODING WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONCERNING AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAY CONTINUE
 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
 EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI..BUT THE
 SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY MORNING STORMS...AND THE LESS
 CLEARING THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY...THE LESSER THE POTENTIAL FOR
 SEVERE WEATHER THAT EVENING WILL BE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

MOZ030-031-038-039-270015-
RAY MO-LAFAYETTE MO-CARROLL MO-SALINE MO-
640 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL...
NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN SALINE AND SOUTHEASTERN RAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 640 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARDIN...OR 7 MILES EAST OF LEXINGTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HIGGINSVILLE...LEXINGTON...CARROLLTON...WAVERLY...NORBORNE...
HARDIN...CORDER...WAKENDA...DOVER AND GRAND PASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3903 9366 3917 9393 3947 9369 3930 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 220DEG 43KT 3920 9374

MURRAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
646 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

MOZ053-270015-
BATES MO-
646 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BATES COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

AT 646 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF BUTLER...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUTLER...ADRIAN...AMSTERDAM...AMORET AND PASSAIC.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3822 9462 3847 9457 3847 9430 3846 9430
      3847 9429 3845 9427 3846 9423 3844 9420
      3845 9414 3820 9438
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 200DEG 24KT 3831 9447

32

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
719 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

MOZ043-053-054-270045-
HENRY MO-BATES MO-CASS MO-
719 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CASS...NORTHEASTERN
BATES AND SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 718 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF DREXEL TO
NEAR SCHELL CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARRISONVILLE...CLINTON...BUTLER...ADRIAN...GARDEN CITY...ARCHIE...
URICH...DEEPWATER...MONTROSE...CREIGHTON...EAST LYNNE...ROCKVILLE...
BROWNINGTON...PASSAIC...HARTWELL...BALLARD AND LA DUE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3846 9461 3875 9434 3861 9412 3857 9411
      3856 9405 3823 9352 3821 9352 3821 9354
      3822 9356 3820 9356 3820 9360 3821 9405
      3803 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 218DEG 24KT 3839 9456 3805 9407

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
817 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S HOLDEN              38.70N 93.99W
05/26/2016                   JOHNSON            MO   PUBLIC

            2 TO 3 INCH LIMBS SNAPPED 1 MILE SOUTH OF HOLDEN.

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
853 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GARDNER                 38.81N 94.93W
05/26/2016                   JOHNSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER COVERING ROAD 175TH AND WAVERLY IN SOUTH GARDNER.

&&

CUTTER

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>