Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
337 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Short Term (Today through Sunday):

The main concern in the short term is for the potential for
additional heavy rainfall leading to or exacerbating ongoing
flooding. There is also a lesser concern for the potential for a
few strong storms tonight.

This afternoon, a shortwave which is rounding the base of an upper
level trough, centered over eastern Colorado, is lifting northward
across sern KS/swrn MO. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have
begin to develop across the area. Storms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity as we continue into the evening hours. Shear
across the area is weak however there is a moderate amount of
instability across the area. Consequently, a few storms could become
strong but no more than perhaps an isolated severe storm is
expected. What is of a bigger concern is the continued high PWAT
values of 1.25"-1.6" that exist across the area. This will lead to
storms which will be very efficient rainfall producers. Consequently
have continued the areal flood watch through 12Z tomorrow morning,
especially considering antecedent rainfall and ongoing flooding.

This afternoon and area of severe storms is developing to the west
of the area. These storms are expected to progress eastward later
tonight and move into the in a weakened state but will provide
another shot at mod-hvy rainfall. A third round of storms will be
possible overnight as the upper level trough moves into northern
Kansas and an associated surface low lifts into the region.

The upper level trough moves into the Upper Midwest tomorrow
forcing a cold front into the area. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop with higher chances near the IA/MO border with
lower chances further south. The upper trough will finally lift
northeastward into the western Great Lakes and conditions dry out
for Saturday and Sunday. Expect highs on Sunday in the low to mid
80s.

Extended Term: (Sunday night through Friday):

The extended period continues to look unsettled. The upper level
pattern will look like a carbon copy of the set up and the beginning
of this week with a upper level trough over the southwestern CONUS
and southwesterly flow across the area. A series of shortwaves are
expected to eject out from the southwestern CONUS trough and move
towards the area from Sunday night through the middle of next week
continuing scattered thunderstorm chances. The upper level trough
finally moves out into the central Plains by Thursday and slowly
moves into the area by the end of the week continuing thunderstorm
chances. Temperatures should range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s
through the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Altho cig
restrictions are not expected with these storms...vis may
occasionally be reduced to 4-5SM in heavier showers. Otrw...expect
cigs btn 3-4kft thru tonight before giving way to mid-lvl clouds
tonight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ001>004-
     011>013-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
136 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281845-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
136 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
434 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NE WEATHERBY LAKE     39.29N 94.65W
05/27/2016  M1.93 INCH       PLATTE             MO   MESONET

            ONE HOUR MEASUREMENT BY THE STORMWATCH NETWORK GAGE. 1.14
            INCHES FELL IN THIRTY MINUTES.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
444 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE PARKVILLE         39.24N 94.66W
05/27/2016  M1.34 INCH       PLATTE             MO   MESONET

            ONE HOUR MEASUREMENT BY THE STORMWATCH NETWORK GAGE. 0.84
            INCHES FELL IN 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 345 PM AND 400 PM.

&&

PMURRAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
444 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

MOZ030-038-272215-
RAY MO-LAFAYETTE MO-
444 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE AND
SOUTHEASTERN RAY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 444 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WELLINGTON...OR NEAR ODESSA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RICHMOND...LEXINGTON...WELLINGTON AND HENRIETTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 9395 3906 9404 3928 9396 3918 9374
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 210DEG 19KT 3909 9395

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
449 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLOOD            5 WNW GLADSTONE         39.25N 94.65W
05/27/2016                   PLATTE             MO   PUBLIC

            GROCERY STORE PARKING LOT FLOODED WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
            WATER NEAR INTERSTATE 29 AND BARRY ROAD.

&&

PMURRAY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
510 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             LATHROP                 39.55N 94.33W
05/27/2016  E1.00 INCH       CLINTON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER FLOWING
            OVER ROADS.

&&

PMURRAY