Alert archive / Iowa / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

May 26, 2016Carroll County, Crawford County, Sac County, Iowa

NWS Des Moines, IA issued this special weather statement at May 26, 2016, 1:56 AM CDT for Carroll County, Crawford County, Sac County, Iowa. It was in force for 64 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 26, 2016, 1:56 AM CDT (06:56 UTC)
Expired: May 26, 2016, 3:00 AM CDT
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Des Moines, IA

Counties Carroll County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Sac County, IA

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1496 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -40 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1029 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 150 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 2.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 26, 12:28 AM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 26, 12:28 AM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1228 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Main concern overnight will be thunderstorm redevelopment. Leftover
convection has diminished to only a few showers over the southeast.
Elsewhere breaks in cloud cover have allowed recovery of airmass
over the region...mainly west of the state. Synoptic low and warm
front stretches from eastern South Dakota to near Rochester MN with
south southwest flow over much of the forecast area now. Old outflow
boundary situated in north central MO to northeast KS with some
convergence taking place along the boundary. Models having some
difficulty with area of re-initiation this evening...but some
consensus between synoptic models/Hires suggest that area of concern
will be over eastern NE/Southwest to west central IA and northeast
KS. Activity congeals into an MCS overnight and should track
east/southeast across the southern quarter of Iowa or northern MO.
Models also develop weaker area of convection along the more
northern synoptic boundary. As mentioned...differences remain. SPC
HRRR focusing development more north while ARW/NMM/GFS20/EURO more
focused on southern Iowa tagging the old outflow boundary. Moisture
transport remains stronger this evening into the southern portion of
the state. GFS is trending on developing any storms tonight along
the leading nose of weakening stability...which coincides with the
max qpf axis over central/southern sections of the forecast area.
Overnight PWATs continue in the 1 to 1.5 inch range...with warm
cloud depths ranging from 11-12kft. Mean storm motions of 10 to 15
kts suggest heavy downpours and potential for quick 1 to 2 inch
rainfalls if some stronger updrafts develop.  Given current
conditions...most likely will see initiation to the west/southwest
of the area then developing east northeast into the south half
through the night then shifting southeast as the better moisture
transport and better isentropic lift moves out of the area.
Bufr soundings maintain elevated convection overnight with any
threats for severe weather being hail and winds.  Lows will be
rather warm again with south southwest flow...in the lower to mid
60s.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Wednesday/
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Active pattern to continue through the forecast period, with
increased chances of thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend.
Upper level trough over the four corners region Thursday will
slowly meander eastward into the weekend. A series of impulses
will eject out of the southwest trough and push through the
region. This will bring intermittent thunderstorm chances to the
state into the holiday weekend. Some lingering activity may be
ongoing across the far south Thursday morning, which should
quickly clear off with subsidence between shortwaves across the
state. A sfc boundary will lift northward through the state with
an inverted sfc trough feature extending northeastward into the
state. Theta-e advection increases across the CWA by Thursday
afternoon into the evening, and could see some storms form in that
area by Thursday afternoon across western/central IA. Overall deep
layer shear stronger around 35-45kts, with decent low level shear
as well. CAPE values to increase to around 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg by
the late afternoon hours. Severe chances will be greater off to
the southwest closer to the sfc low center, however are still
possible across much of the CWA both with the possible
afternoon/evening activity and also with an overnight MCS that
could push through late Thursday night from development to the
west. PWAT values around 1.6 in therefore potential for locally
heavy rainfall still there as well.

Additional thunderstorm development possible Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning, with chances becoming more diffuse into the
latter portion of the holiday weekend as the sfc low lifts off to
the northeast and the main upper level trough pushes through the
region Saturday night. This leads to more subtle features in place
across the region with more of a zonal flow pattern setting up and
the main jet lifts across the northern US. This should allow for
continue chances for storms into next week with southerly flow
still off the gulf. However the threat of strong to severe storms
and organized systems is less given the lack of stronger weather
systems moving through the area.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night/
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A large area of scattered thunderstorms will move across the area
overnight, and have maintained several hours of VCTS at all
terminals. This activity will clear the area by 12Z, after which
Thursday morning will be quiet with prevailing VFR conditions.
Thunderstorms are then expected to redevelop later Thursday, but
timing and location are more uncertain, so have introduced more
VCTS groups in the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Lee

Hazardous weather outlook, May 25, 3:44 PM CDT, 10 hours 12 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
344 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-261000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
344 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

MJB

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 26, 1:11 AM CDT, 45 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
111 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

IAZ094>096-260715-
APPANOOSE IA-DECATUR IA-WAYNE IA-
111 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE DIME SIZE HAIL...

AT 111 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CORYDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTERVILLE...CORYDON...LAKE SUNDOWN...RATHBUN LAKE...SEYMOUR...
ALLERTON...HUMESTON...MYSTIC...CINCINNATI...EXLINE...PROMISE CITY...
NUMA...RATHBUN...CLIO...PLANO...UDELL...MILLERTON...
CENTERVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...
SHARON BLUFFS STATE PARK AND HONEY CREEK STATE PARK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4067 9371 4088 9355 4085 9273 4059 9277
      4058 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 239DEG 36KT 4070 9345

KOTENBERG

Local storm report, May 26, 1:13 AM CDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
113 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW GRUVER            43.41N 94.75W
05/26/2016  M77 MPH          EMMET              IA   ASOS

            PEAK WIND REPORTED AT THE ESTHERVILLE
            MUNICIPAL AIRPORT /EST/

&&

FOWLE

Local storm report, May 26, 1:17 AM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
117 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ESTHERVILLE             43.41N 94.83W
05/26/2016                   EMMET              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL 3-5 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN THROUGHOUT
            THE TOWN OF ESTHERVILLE. SOME TREE LIMBS
            BLOCKING ROADS. REPORTED ALSO BY EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, May 26, 1:19 AM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
119 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 AM     HAIL             EMMETSBURG              43.11N 94.68W
05/26/2016  M0.88 INCH       PALO ALTO          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL HAIL

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, May 26, 1:23 AM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
123 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 E ESTHERVILLE         43.40N 94.80W
05/26/2016  M62 MPH          EMMET              IA   MESONET

            PEAK WIND GUST MEASURED FROM THE IA DOT RWIS
            MESONET STATION 1 E ESTHERVILLE /IA064/

&&

FOWLE

Special weather statement, May 26, 1:56 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
156 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

IAZ033-044-045-057-260800-
AUDUBON IA-CARROLL IA-CRAWFORD IA-SAC IA-
156 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...A LINE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

AT 155 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF SMITHLAND
TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARLAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARROLL...DENISON...SAC CITY...AUDUBON...MANNING...COON RAPIDS...
GLIDDEN...LAKE VIEW...DUNLAP...ODEBOLT...BLACK HAWK LAKE...
SCHLESWIG...WALL LAKE...MANILLA...SCHALLER...EARLY...DOW CITY...
CHARTER OAK...ARCADIA AND BREDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES .

&&

LAT...LON 4221 9567 4221 9532 4247 9532 4248 9539
      4250 9539 4256 9524 4256 9509 4225 9486
      4221 9486 4221 9483 4194 9463 4187 9463
      4186 9474 4181 9475 4164 9509 4186 9510
      4186 9565 4189 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 230DEG 42KT 4224 9585 4161 9536

KOTENBERG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Des Moines, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 25, 10:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DMX	Emmet	62 min
May 25, 10:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Emmet	44 min
May 25, 11:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DMX	Emmet	32 min
May 26, 12:17 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DMX	Adams, Decatur, Ringgold, Taylor, Union	58 min
May 26, 12:45 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DMX	Emmet, Kossuth, Palo Alto	60 min
May 26, 1:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Emmet, Kossuth, Palo Alto	45 min
May 26, 1:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DMX	Appanoose, Wayne	64 min
May 26, 1:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Hancock, Kossuth, Winnebago	34 min
May 26, 2:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Adair, Audubon, Carroll, Cass, Crawford, Greene and 1 more	50 min
May 26, 2:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Boone, Dallas, Polk	45 min
May 26, 2:42 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Cerro Gordo, Worth	28 min
May 26, 2:54 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Boone, Calhoun, Carroll, Dallas, Greene, Guthrie and 4 more	51 min
May 26, 3:21 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Jasper, Marshall, Polk, Story	39 min
May 26, 3:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Grundy, Hardin, Marshall, Story	39 min
May 26, 4:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Black Hawk, Grundy, Marshall, Tama	29 min
May 26, 4:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Black Hawk, Bremer, Tama	26 min
May 26, 6:03 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DMX	Cass	6 hr
May 26, 6:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DMX	Boone, Dallas	37 min
May 26, 6:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DMX	Warren	53 min
May 26, 6:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DMX	Polk	26 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Iowa, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.