Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
624 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Main concern overnight will be thunderstorm redevelopment. Leftover
convection has diminished to only a few showers over the southeast.
Elsewhere breaks in cloud cover have allowed recovery of airmass
over the region...mainly west of the state. Synoptic low and warm
front stretches from eastern South Dakota to near Rochester MN with
south southwest flow over much of the forecast area now. Old outflow
boundary situated in north central MO to northeast KS with some
convergence taking place along the boundary. Models having some
difficulty with area of re-initiation this evening...but some
consensus between synoptic models/Hires suggest that area of concern
will be over eastern NE/Southwest to west central IA and northeast
KS. Activity congeals into an MCS overnight and should track
east/southeast across the southern quarter of Iowa or northern MO.
Models also develop weaker area of convection along the more
northern synoptic boundary. As mentioned...differences remain. SPC
HRRR focusing development more north while ARW/NMM/GFS20/EURO more
focused on southern Iowa tagging the old outflow boundary. Moisture
transport remains stronger this evening into the southern portion of
the state. GFS is trending on developing any storms tonight along
the leading nose of weakening stability...which coincides with the
max qpf axis over central/southern sections of the forecast area.
Overnight PWATs continue in the 1 to 1.5 inch range...with warm
cloud depths ranging from 11-12kft. Mean storm motions of 10 to 15
kts suggest heavy downpours and potential for quick 1 to 2 inch
rainfalls if some stronger updrafts develop.  Given current
conditions...most likely will see initiation to the west/southwest
of the area then developing east northeast into the south half
through the night then shifting southeast as the better moisture
transport and better isentropic lift moves out of the area.
Bufr soundings maintain elevated convection overnight with any
threats for severe weather being hail and winds.  Lows will be
rather warm again with south southwest flow...in the lower to mid
60s.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Wednesday/
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Active pattern to continue through the forecast period, with
increased chances of thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend.
Upper level trough over the four corners region Thursday will
slowly meander eastward into the weekend. A series of impulses
will eject out of the southwest trough and push through the
region. This will bring intermittent thunderstorm chances to the
state into the holiday weekend. Some lingering activity may be
ongoing across the far south Thursday morning, which should
quickly clear off with subsidence between shortwaves across the
state. A sfc boundary will lift northward through the state with
an inverted sfc trough feature extending northeastward into the
state. Theta-e advection increases across the CWA by Thursday
afternoon into the evening, and could see some storms form in that
area by Thursday afternoon across western/central IA. Overall deep
layer shear stronger around 35-45kts, with decent low level shear
as well. CAPE values to increase to around 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg by
the late afternoon hours. Severe chances will be greater off to
the southwest closer to the sfc low center, however are still
possible across much of the CWA both with the possible
afternoon/evening activity and also with an overnight MCS that
could push through late Thursday night from development to the
west. PWAT values around 1.6 in therefore potential for locally
heavy rainfall still there as well.

Additional thunderstorm development possible Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning, with chances becoming more diffuse into the
latter portion of the holiday weekend as the sfc low lifts off to
the northeast and the main upper level trough pushes through the
region Saturday night. This leads to more subtle features in place
across the region with more of a zonal flow pattern setting up and
the main jet lifts across the northern US. This should allow for
continue chances for storms into next week with southerly flow
still off the gulf. However the threat of strong to severe storms
and organized systems is less given the lack of stronger weather
systems moving through the area.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening/
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for most of the TAF period with a
couple of exceptions. An expansive low cloud field that developed
over southeastern nebraska is slowly moving across central Iowa
this evening. Most of the ceilings being observed within this
cloud field are FL035-045, but a brief MVFR ceiling cannot be
ruled out. More MVFR ceilings may be possible toward sunrise
Thursday, mainly at OTM, but confidence is lower. Otherwise, any
reduced flight conditions will largely be tied to showers and
thunderstorms. A round of these is expected after midnight
tonight, with additional storms possible on Thursday afternoon but
at a lower probability.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Lee

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
344 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-261000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
344 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1013 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

IAZ004-260415-
EMMET IA-
1013 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM MAY DROP PENNY TO DIME SIZE HAIL...

AT 1012 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR ESTHERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ESTHERVILLE...INGHAM LAKE...IOWA LAKE...OKAMANPEDAN LAKE...
SWAN LAKE...HIGH LAKE...ARMSTRONG...RINGSTED...WALLINGFORD...
GRUVER...DOLLIVER...FORT DEFIANCE STATE PARK...WOLDEN COUNTY PARK...
ESTHERVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND OKAMANPEDAN STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES .

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9445 4326 9444 4326 9491 4350 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 233DEG 16KT 4337 9479

KOTENBERG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1045 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 PM     HAIL             2 W DOLLIVER            43.47N 94.66W
05/25/2016  M0.88 INCH       EMMET              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMMET COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER RELAYED
            REPORT OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL WEST OF DOLLIVER

&&

KK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1050 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     HAIL             4 W DOLLIVER            43.46N 94.69W
05/25/2016  E0.88 INCH       EMMET              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1052 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     HAIL             5 NW GRUVER             43.45N 94.76W
05/25/2016  E0.88 INCH       EMMET              IA   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

CC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1113 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

IAZ004-005-260445-
EMMET IA-KOSSUTH IA-
1113 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE...

AT 1112 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR IOWA LAKE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF FAIRMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IOWA LAKE AND ARMSTRONG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES .

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9418 4346 9422 4338 9454 4350 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 246DEG 22KT 4350 9441

KOTENBERG