Alert archive / Iowa / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

May 9, 2016Audubon County, Iowa

NWS Des Moines, IA issued this special weather statement at May 9, 2016, 11:41 PM CDT for Audubon County, Iowa. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 9, 2016, 11:41 PM CDT (04:41 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2016, 12:30 AM CDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Des Moines, IA

County Audubon County, IA

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 37 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -85 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2626 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 202 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 9, 6:31 PM CDT, 5 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 9, 6:31 PM CDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
631 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT OVER THE SW THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ANY EASTWARD EXPANSION OF STORMS THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING SVR CHANCES TO REMAIN OVER WEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD.
A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS WORKED NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA. CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED SFC BASED INSTABILITY OVER MUCH
OF IOWA TODAY. SOME LIMITED SUN HAS REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG THOUGH AS OF 3
PM...ANY 0-3 KM CAPES REMAINED WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SEVERAL
WAVES OF WEAK TO MODERATE THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA HAVE PROVIDED SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER IOWA. THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS REMAINED OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA THOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM TIME TO
TIME INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP THE ENTIRE SYSTEM BECOME A BIT
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT INTERACTS BY A DEEPER UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA
AND WYOMING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BETTER ENERGY INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL OR 60 MPH
WINDS REMAINS POSSIBLE THOUGH THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED VIGOROUS
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND THE LACK OF SHEAR WILL PREVENT THEM
FROM BECOMING SUSTAINED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE TOWARD 06Z. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AFT 06Z WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE LONGER TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY. MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. AFTERNOON HEATING OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FORECAST MODELS DEPICT MU CAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA ALONG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 30-45
KNOTS SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER. ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...FAR BELOW THE NORMAL
HIGHS OF 70S.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS PERIOD WITH IFR CIGS NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND MVFR ELSEWHERE...EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AREA OF LINGERING -TSRA/SHRA OVER NORTHEAST LIFTING NORTH
AND EXPANDING AREA OF -TSRA MAY CLIP KFOD PRIOR TO 04Z. ACROSS
CENTRAL SECTIONS...EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN -SHRA VCTS COVERAGE
THROUGH 06Z. OCCLUSION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AFT 12Z AND CIGS
INCREASE BY 18Z SW...EXPANDING NORTHEAST THROUGH 11/00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...REV

Hazardous weather outlook, May 9, 9:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, May 9, 8:26 PM CDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 9, 8:27 PM CDT, 3 hours 14 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 9, 8:29 PM CDT, 3 hours 12 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 9, 8:50 PM CDT, 2 hours 51 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
850 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

IAZ081-092-100230-
TAYLOR IA-ADAMS IA-
850 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN TAYLOR AND ADAMS COUNTIES...

AT 849 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF VILLISCA...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CORNING...MOVING
NORTH AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORNING...BEDFORD...LAKE ICARIA...NEW MARKET...GRAVITY...NODAWAY...CARBON...
LAKE ICARIA STATE PARK...CORNING MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND LAKE OF THREE
FIRES STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4068 9491 4073 9491 4073 9493 4116 9493
      4116 9462 4067 9469
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 177DEG 31KT 4088 9485

ZOGG

Local storm report, May 9, 11:25 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 9, 11:41 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Des Moines, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 7:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Audubon, Guthrie	45 min
May 9, 8:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Audubon, Carroll, Greene, Guthrie	45 min
May 9, 8:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DMX	Guthrie	25 min
May 9, 8:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Audubon, Carroll, Crawford	37 min
May 9, 8:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DMX	Adams, Taylor	40 min
May 9, 10:26 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DMX	Audubon, Carroll, Guthrie	6 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Iowa, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.