Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Des Moines, IA

949 
WWUS53 KDMX 100038
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
738 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

IAC009-077-100100-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160510T0100Z/
GUTHRIE IA-AUDUBON IA-
738 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GUTHRIE AND NORTHEASTERN AUDUBON COUNTIES...

AT 736 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
COON RAPIDS...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUTHRIE CENTER...MOVING NORTH
AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GUTHRIE CENTER...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAYARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4186 9453 4163 9458 4163 9477 4186 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 182DEG 20KT 4177 9469 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ZOGG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
631 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT OVER THE SW THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ANY EASTWARD EXPANSION OF STORMS THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING SVR CHANCES TO REMAIN OVER WEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD.
A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS WORKED NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA. CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED SFC BASED INSTABILITY OVER MUCH
OF IOWA TODAY. SOME LIMITED SUN HAS REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG THOUGH AS OF 3
PM...ANY 0-3 KM CAPES REMAINED WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SEVERAL
WAVES OF WEAK TO MODERATE THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA HAVE PROVIDED SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER IOWA. THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS REMAINED OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA THOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM TIME TO
TIME INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP THE ENTIRE SYSTEM BECOME A BIT
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT INTERACTS BY A DEEPER UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA
AND WYOMING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BETTER ENERGY INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL OR 60 MPH
WINDS REMAINS POSSIBLE THOUGH THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED VIGOROUS
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND THE LACK OF SHEAR WILL PREVENT THEM
FROM BECOMING SUSTAINED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE TOWARD 06Z. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AFT 06Z WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE LONGER TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY. MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. AFTERNOON HEATING OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FORECAST MODELS DEPICT MU CAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA ALONG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 30-45
KNOTS SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER. ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...FAR BELOW THE NORMAL
HIGHS OF 70S.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS PERIOD WITH IFR CIGS NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND MVFR ELSEWHERE...EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AREA OF LINGERING -TSRA/SHRA OVER NORTHEAST LIFTING NORTH
AND EXPANDING AREA OF -TSRA MAY CLIP KFOD PRIOR TO 04Z. ACROSS
CENTRAL SECTIONS...EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN -SHRA VCTS COVERAGE
THROUGH 06Z. OCCLUSION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AFT 12Z AND CIGS
INCREASE BY 18Z SW...EXPANDING NORTHEAST THROUGH 11/00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-102100-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-
MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
352 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-102100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
352 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMALL HAIL AND WIND UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
538 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 S DRAKESVILLE         40.76N 92.49W
05/09/2016                   DAVIS              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD - AND POSSIBLE BRIEF TOUCHDOWN
            REPORTED ALONG ICE AVENUE BETWEEN
            DRAKESVILLE AND HIGHWAY 2; ABOUT 3 MILES
            WEST OF BLOOMFIELD. MOVED NORTHWEST AND
            DISSIPATED. NO DAMAGE REPORTED. DURATION
            UNKNOWN.

&&

RV