Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Des Moines, IA

077 
WWUS53 KDMX 191736
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

IAC001-003-009-029-077-191800-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-160719T1800Z/
GUTHRIE IA-CASS IA-ADAIR IA-AUDUBON IA-ADAMS IA-
1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN GUTHRIE...EASTERN CASS...ADAIR...SOUTHEASTERN
AUDUBON AND NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTIES...

AT 1235 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF
STUART...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF GREENFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 1220 PM...A 63 MPH WIND GUST
         WAS RECORDED ABOUT 4 MILES WEST OF ADAIR.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENFIELD...STUART...LAKE ICARIA...ANITA...ADAIR...FONTANELLE...
CASEY...MASSENA...MENLO...CUMBERLAND...PRESCOTT...BRIDGEWATER...
WIOTA...GREENFIELD MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...LAKE ICARIA STATE PARK...
NODAWAY PARK...LAKE ANITA STATE PARK AND ANITA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 9478 4150 9425 4100 9460 4113 9490
      4115 9493 4116 9493 4116 9495 4119 9501
      4142 9490
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 269DEG 39KT 4147 9449 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MF

499 
WWUS53 KDMX 191748
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1248 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

IAC009-191758-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-160719T1800Z/
AUDUBON IA-
1248 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN AUDUBON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4150 9425 4100 9460 4113 9480 4120 9488
      4145 9462 4158 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 298DEG 32KT 4141 9435 

$$

IAC001-003-029-077-191800-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-160719T1800Z/
GUTHRIE IA-CASS IA-ADAIR IA-ADAMS IA-
1248 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GUTHRIE...SOUTHEASTERN CASS...ADAIR AND
NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES...

AT 1248 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STUART...OR 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF GREENFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENFIELD...STUART...LAKE ICARIA...FONTANELLE...CASEY...MASSENA...
MENLO...PRESCOTT...BRIDGEWATER...GREENFIELD MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...
NODAWAY PARK AND LAKE ICARIA STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 9425 4100 9460 4113 9480 4120 9488
      4145 9462 4158 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 298DEG 32KT 4141 9435 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MF

512 
WWUS53 KDMX 191759
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1259 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

IAC001-003-029-077-191809-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-160719T1800Z/
GUTHRIE IA-CASS IA-ADAIR IA-ADAMS IA-
1259 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GUTHRIE...
SOUTHEASTERN CASS...ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 100 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4150 9425 4100 9460 4113 9480 4120 9488
      4145 9462 4158 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 298DEG 32KT 4137 9425 

$$

MF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
644 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Main forecast concern was focused on timing and location of the
MCS, located over Nebraska, into the forecast area later this
morning. The overall model trends have been to slow the
progression and thus the arrival into the CWA until around 12-14z
this morning over the west to northwest. However, a couple
outliers in the hires models today as the operational HRRR and RAP
show a line of storms develop over western Iowa this morning ahead
of the main MCS. The ARW/NMM WRF, NSSL 4.0 WRF, and experimental
HRRR progress the current MCS across the northern portions of the
CWA today. This is more in line with the NAM12, GFS and ECMWF and
leaned toward the latter blend. As a result, cut back on pops for
much of the forecast area until after 12z and went completely dry
across the south today.

As far as severe weather potential today, it remains a low coverage
and low probability as the highest CAPE depicted by any model is
around 2500 J/kg via the NAM12. DCAPE is minimal and shear is weak
throughout the column today, so any severe weather (in the form of
large hail) looks to be short-lived and likely just elevated as LCL
heights range around 2000-2500 feet. Really the main focus is heavy
rain as warm layer cloud depths top 14,500 feet over northern Iowa,
PWATs as high as 2.0 inches, and decent moisture transport later
this morning into the afternoon. Certainly a potential for some
efficient rain producers, but with the low confidence in the
widespread coverage of the convection today, held off on any flash
flood headlines18 at this time.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Another shortwave to top the ridge tonight, with strong theta-e
advection across central/northern Iowa this evening into the
overnight hours. This present additional chances for convection
especially as the LLJ increases late tonight and becomes oriented
into NC/NE IA and MN. High freezing levels and PWATs around 2
inches with possibility of backbuilding area of convection with
the area of theta-e advection slowly moving off to the northeast,
suggests the potential for heavy rainfall. This combined with the
fact that northern Iowa has already had some heavier rainfall over
the past 72 hours, yields the potential for flash flooding and
thus have issued a watch for tonight across the far northeastern
counties.

Focus then shifts from precip chances to the heat into Wednesday
through the end of the week. Thermal ridge to build in aloft
Wednesday into Friday as upper ridging amplifies some. H85
temperatures climb into the mid 20s C Wednesday, and upper 20s to
around 30C by Thursday. This should yield temperatures into 90s
Wednesday and mid to upper 90s into Thursday. Dewpoints also
remain in the 70s across the CWA and given the heavier rains of
the past few days, will allow them to possibly climb higher. This
will push heat index values to well above 100 Wednesday and around
110 across much of the state into Thursday. Slightly cooler
conditions for Friday, but the heat index values will still remain
around 105 to 110. Therefore with the heat being prolonged and
combine the daytime temps with the overnight temps in the mid to
upper 70s, will continue the excessive heat watch.

Cooler airmass to move into the state this weekend as the upper
ridge breaks down and an upper level trough pushes through the
northern US/SRN prairie provinces of Canada. This sends a cold
front southward through the state Saturday into Saturday night
with chances of storms and a return to more seasonal temperatures
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning/
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Expecting VFR conditions for DSM and OTM, and likely at FOD for
much of the of the forecast period. Heavy rain may impact MCW to
ALO overnight tonight and cause MVFR to even IFR conditions at
times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Heavy rainfall over the past few days across NC IA and the chance
for heavy rainfall again tonight will lead to the potential for
flash flooding across portions of north central Iowa, therefore
have issued a flash flood watch for tonight through early
Wednesday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher
amounts will be possible in the watch area.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday
evening for Adair-Adams-Appanoose-Audubon-Black Hawk-Boone-
Bremer-Butler-Calhoun-Carroll-Cass-Cerro Gordo-Clarke-Crawford-
Dallas-Davis-Decatur-Emmet-Franklin-Greene-Grundy-Guthrie-
Hamilton-Hancock-Hardin-Humboldt-Jasper-Kossuth-Lucas-Madison-
Mahaska-Marion-Marshall-Monroe-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Polk-
Poweshiek-Ringgold-Sac-Story-Tama-Taylor-Union-Wapello-Warren-
Wayne-Webster-Winnebago-Worth-Wright.

Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning
for Cerro Gordo-Hancock-Winnebago-Worth.

&&

SHORT TERM...Podrazik
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Podrazik
HYDROLOGY...Beerends

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
405 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

IAZ004-005-015-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-201000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-
BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-
BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
405 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME HOWEVER
RAINFALL REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGED.

IAZ006-007-016-017-201000-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
405 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A LINGERING THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE AREA.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME HOWEVER
RAINFALL REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGED.

MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1134 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNW FORT DODGE        42.55N 94.19W
07/19/2016  M3.06 INCH       WEBSTER            IA   AWOS

            RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1136 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW CLIVE             41.58N 93.79W
07/19/2016  M2.34 INCH       DALLAS             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1137 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW SAYLORVILLE       41.66N 93.63W
07/19/2016                   POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS STANDING WATER IN IOWA CUBS
            STADIUM PARKING LOT AND WATER SHOOTING OUT
            OF STORM DRAINS 2 TO 3 FEET HIGH IN THE
            AREA.

&&

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED LOCATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1137 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DES MOINES               41.58N 93.62W
07/19/2016                   POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS STANDING WATER IN IOWA CUBS
            STADIUM PARKING LOT AND WATER SHOOTING OUT
            OF STORM DRAINS 2 TO 3 FEET HIGH IN THE
            AREA.

&&

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1138 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MANSON                  42.53N 94.54W
07/19/2016  M2.70 INCH       CALHOUN            IA   MESONET

            RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1143 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

IAZ059-060-191845-
DALLAS-POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PERRY...WAUKEE...ADEL...DES MOINES
1143 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO DES MOINES METRO
AREA...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE DES MOINES METRO
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BE PREPARED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL AS MINOR STREET FLOODING.

ZOGG