Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Des Moines, IA

886 
WWUS53 KDMX 191659
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1159 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

IAC009-029-191730-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-160719T1730Z/
CASS IA-AUDUBON IA-
1159 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CASS AND AUDUBON COUNTIES...

AT 1159 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTH OF
ATLANTIC...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATLANTIC...AUDUBON...ANITA...EXIRA...ELK HORN...KIMBALLTON...
BRAYTON...MARNE...WIOTA...LAKE ANITA STATE PARK...ANITA MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...AUDUBON COUNTY AIRPORT AND ATLANTIC MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 9515 4151 9504 4160 9504 4160 9509
      4185 9509 4173 9474 4160 9474 4160 9470
      4130 9470 4141 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 286DEG 24KT 4155 9495 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MF

889 
WWUS53 KDMX 191709
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

IAC009-029-191730-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-160719T1730Z/
CASS IA-AUDUBON IA-
1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CASS AND SOUTHERN AUDUBON COUNTIES...

AT 1208 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ATLANTIC...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATLANTIC...ANITA...EXIRA...BRAYTON...WIOTA...ANITA MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...LAKE ANITA STATE PARK AND ATLANTIC MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 9505 4151 9504 4161 9501 4162 9500
      4176 9484 4173 9474 4160 9474 4160 9470
      4130 9470 4140 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 305DEG 32KT 4149 9482 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MF

578 
WWUS53 KDMX 191724
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

IAC009-029-191733-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-160719T1730Z/
CASS IA-AUDUBON IA-
1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CASS AND SOUTHERN
AUDUBON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

REMEMBER...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN CASS AND FAR SOUTHERN AUDOBON COUNTIES.


LAT...LON 4148 9505 4151 9504 4161 9501 4162 9500
      4176 9484 4173 9474 4160 9474 4160 9470
      4130 9470 4140 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 286DEG 27KT 4146 9469 

$$

MF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
644 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Main forecast concern was focused on timing and location of the
MCS, located over Nebraska, into the forecast area later this
morning. The overall model trends have been to slow the
progression and thus the arrival into the CWA until around 12-14z
this morning over the west to northwest. However, a couple
outliers in the hires models today as the operational HRRR and RAP
show a line of storms develop over western Iowa this morning ahead
of the main MCS. The ARW/NMM WRF, NSSL 4.0 WRF, and experimental
HRRR progress the current MCS across the northern portions of the
CWA today. This is more in line with the NAM12, GFS and ECMWF and
leaned toward the latter blend. As a result, cut back on pops for
much of the forecast area until after 12z and went completely dry
across the south today.

As far as severe weather potential today, it remains a low coverage
and low probability as the highest CAPE depicted by any model is
around 2500 J/kg via the NAM12. DCAPE is minimal and shear is weak
throughout the column today, so any severe weather (in the form of
large hail) looks to be short-lived and likely just elevated as LCL
heights range around 2000-2500 feet. Really the main focus is heavy
rain as warm layer cloud depths top 14,500 feet over northern Iowa,
PWATs as high as 2.0 inches, and decent moisture transport later
this morning into the afternoon. Certainly a potential for some
efficient rain producers, but with the low confidence in the
widespread coverage of the convection today, held off on any flash
flood headlines18 at this time.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Another shortwave to top the ridge tonight, with strong theta-e
advection across central/northern Iowa this evening into the
overnight hours. This present additional chances for convection
especially as the LLJ increases late tonight and becomes oriented
into NC/NE IA and MN. High freezing levels and PWATs around 2
inches with possibility of backbuilding area of convection with
the area of theta-e advection slowly moving off to the northeast,
suggests the potential for heavy rainfall. This combined with the
fact that northern Iowa has already had some heavier rainfall over
the past 72 hours, yields the potential for flash flooding and
thus have issued a watch for tonight across the far northeastern
counties.

Focus then shifts from precip chances to the heat into Wednesday
through the end of the week. Thermal ridge to build in aloft
Wednesday into Friday as upper ridging amplifies some. H85
temperatures climb into the mid 20s C Wednesday, and upper 20s to
around 30C by Thursday. This should yield temperatures into 90s
Wednesday and mid to upper 90s into Thursday. Dewpoints also
remain in the 70s across the CWA and given the heavier rains of
the past few days, will allow them to possibly climb higher. This
will push heat index values to well above 100 Wednesday and around
110 across much of the state into Thursday. Slightly cooler
conditions for Friday, but the heat index values will still remain
around 105 to 110. Therefore with the heat being prolonged and
combine the daytime temps with the overnight temps in the mid to
upper 70s, will continue the excessive heat watch.

Cooler airmass to move into the state this weekend as the upper
ridge breaks down and an upper level trough pushes through the
northern US/SRN prairie provinces of Canada. This sends a cold
front southward through the state Saturday into Saturday night
with chances of storms and a return to more seasonal temperatures
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning/
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Expecting VFR conditions for DSM and OTM, and likely at FOD for
much of the of the forecast period. Heavy rain may impact MCW to
ALO overnight tonight and cause MVFR to even IFR conditions at
times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Heavy rainfall over the past few days across NC IA and the chance
for heavy rainfall again tonight will lead to the potential for
flash flooding across portions of north central Iowa, therefore
have issued a flash flood watch for tonight through early
Wednesday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher
amounts will be possible in the watch area.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday
evening for Adair-Adams-Appanoose-Audubon-Black Hawk-Boone-
Bremer-Butler-Calhoun-Carroll-Cass-Cerro Gordo-Clarke-Crawford-
Dallas-Davis-Decatur-Emmet-Franklin-Greene-Grundy-Guthrie-
Hamilton-Hancock-Hardin-Humboldt-Jasper-Kossuth-Lucas-Madison-
Mahaska-Marion-Marshall-Monroe-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Polk-
Poweshiek-Ringgold-Sac-Story-Tama-Taylor-Union-Wapello-Warren-
Wayne-Webster-Winnebago-Worth-Wright.

Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning
for Cerro Gordo-Hancock-Winnebago-Worth.

&&

SHORT TERM...Podrazik
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Podrazik
HYDROLOGY...Beerends

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
405 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

IAZ004-005-015-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-201000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-
BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-
BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
405 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME HOWEVER
RAINFALL REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGED.

IAZ006-007-016-017-201000-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
405 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A LINGERING THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE AREA.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME HOWEVER
RAINFALL REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGED.

MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE LOHRVILLE         42.28N 94.49W
07/19/2016  M2.01 INCH       CALHOUN            IA   MESONET

            PUBLIC WEATHER STATION RAINFALL TOTAL FOR
            THIS MORNING.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1134 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNW FORT DODGE        42.55N 94.19W
07/19/2016  M3.06 INCH       WEBSTER            IA   AWOS

            RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1136 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW CLIVE             41.58N 93.79W
07/19/2016  M2.34 INCH       DALLAS             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1137 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW SAYLORVILLE       41.66N 93.63W
07/19/2016                   POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS STANDING WATER IN IOWA CUBS
            STADIUM PARKING LOT AND WATER SHOOTING OUT
            OF STORM DRAINS 2 TO 3 FEET HIGH IN THE
            AREA.

&&

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED LOCATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1137 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DES MOINES               41.58N 93.62W
07/19/2016                   POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS STANDING WATER IN IOWA CUBS
            STADIUM PARKING LOT AND WATER SHOOTING OUT
            OF STORM DRAINS 2 TO 3 FEET HIGH IN THE
            AREA.

&&

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1138 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MANSON                  42.53N 94.54W
07/19/2016  M2.70 INCH       CALHOUN            IA   MESONET

            RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM