Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
533 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

OVERALL THE WEATHER AND FORECAST ARE PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT BUT THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS SLIDING
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LARGE LOW CLOUD SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF IOWA...POSSIBLY AIDED BY LOCAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...OVERNIGHT. IN LIGHT OF THIS HAVE BUMPED UP LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A
FAIRLY DEEP NEAR SURFACE SATURATED LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA AND SOME SIGNAL FOR DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES...HOWEVER THE
FORCING WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER APPEARS TOO MODEST TO INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME AND ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. OF POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS THE SPECTRE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE IN AFTER ABOUT 09Z AND
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED
IN FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...A DISTURBING OMEN AT 3 PM...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT ADVERTISED DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE ADDED AREAS OF
FOG WORDING AND THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR EXTEND...WITH MAIN
CONCERN FOR BEGINNING OF EXTENDED A WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYSTEM...THOUGH HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER. HAVE THEREFORE ALSO TRENDED POPS SLOWER...WITH
BEST POPS CONFINED TO TUESDAY MORNING. MAIN CONCERN WITH SYSTEM
WILL BE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN US...CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE MOISTURE
FLOW INTO IOWA. TIMING OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SOUTHERN LOW...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE TROUBLESOME. GENERALLY EXPECT WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
RAIN...THOUGH FURTHER NORTH COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXING
PRECIPITATION WITHOUT ICE INTRODUCTION EARLY...BEFORE ENOUGH
SATURATION ARRIVES FOR ICE TO BE INTRODUCED AND PRECIPITATION TO
BE SNOW. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE BACK
OVER TO RAIN...THOUGH RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.
OVERALL...GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN US WILL THEN LIFT INTO NORTHEAST
US AND DEEPEN. THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA FOR END OF PERIOD. EXPECT A FEW
WAVES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY
THROUGH EXTENDED. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE COOLER THAN BEGINNING OF PERIOD AND FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING TEMPERATURES A BIT. HAVE STARTED TO TREND TEMPERATURES
IN EXTENDED DOWN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

CIGS GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW SITES AT IFR AND ALSO
A FEW POCKETS OF VFR. STRATUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD ALSO
DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KFOD AND KDSM. WINDS TO SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED AT 318 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

ICE JAM FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ON SEVERAL STREAMS AND
RIVERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...INCLUDING THE DES MOINES
RIVER BETWEEN FORT DODGE AND STRATFORD AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
BOONE RIVER. MEANWHILE AN INCREASE IN FLOW ON THE NORTH RACCOON
RIVER WILL MOVE STEADILY DOWNSTREAM AND MAY APPROACH OR ECLIPSE
FLOOD STAGE IN A FEW LOCATIONS LIKE PERRY...WHERE A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...BEERENDS
HYDROLOGY...LEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
440 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-045>050-221045-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-
STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
440 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ICE JAMS ALONG STREAMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING TODAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BOONE AND DES MOINES RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

IAZ044-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-221045-
CRAWFORD-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-
MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-
WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
440 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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