Tornado Warning 10, NWS Duluth, MN

657 
WWUS53 KDLH 200059
SVSDLH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
759 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

MNC001-017-115-200130-
/O.CON.KDLH.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160620T0130Z/
CARLTON MN-AITKIN MN-PINE MN-
759 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CARLTON...EAST CENTRAL AITKIN AND NORTH CENTRAL PINE
COUNTIES...
        
AT 758 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF TAMARACK...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIG
SANDY LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KETTLE RIVER AROUND 815 PM CDT. 
  MOOSE LAKE AROUND 820 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
RONALD...LAWLER...AUTOMBA...DENHAM...STURGEON LAKE AND KETTLE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4635 9331 4662 9332 4667 9279 4637 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 265DEG 42KT 4650 9313 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

DAP

315 
WWUS53 KDLH 200111
SVSDLH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
811 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

MNC001-017-115-200130-
/O.CON.KDLH.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160620T0130Z/
CARLTON MN-AITKIN MN-PINE MN-
811 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CARLTON...SOUTHEASTERN AITKIN AND NORTH CENTRAL PINE
COUNTIES...
        
AT 810 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER KETTLE RIVER...OR 24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLOQUET...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD EARLIER WITH THIS
         STORM. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN CARLTON...SOUTHEASTERN AITKIN AND NORTH CENTRAL PINE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: RONALD...AUTOMBA...
STURGEON LAKE...DENHAM AND KETTLE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4636 9311 4659 9314 4667 9279 4637 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 265DEG 45KT 4651 9290 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

DAP

351 
WWUS53 KDLH 200128
SVSDLH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
828 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

MNC001-017-115-200137-
/O.EXP.KDLH.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160620T0130Z/
CARLTON MN-AITKIN MN-PINE MN-
828 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CARLTON...SOUTHEASTERN AITKIN
AND NORTH CENTRAL PINE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4636 9311 4659 9314 4667 9279 4637 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 265DEG 45KT 4651 9290 

$$

DAP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

There is very little change in the forecast reasoning regarding
the convective episode that will begin to unfold over the next
couple of hours. Most short range guidance continues to be quite
consistent with sustained initiation along or just west of an axis
from Lake Vermilion/Grand Rapids/Brainerd between 4-5 pm. The
large scale environment characterized by ~3000+ j/kg CAPE and 40+
knots of deep layer bulk shear. CAM/HiRes guidance continues to
suggest that the mode for the first few hours should trend toward
discrete storms/supercells, capable of very large hail (up to
baseballs), and damaging wind gusts. 0-1 km agl hodographs also
suggest an attendant tornado threat with the most intense
storms/supercells with 0-1 km shear increasing to around 20 knots
by 00z and rich boundary layer mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg supporting
juxtaposition of sufficiently low LCL/LFC heights. This would
also include the MN Arrowhead where a robust surface-based warm
sector has been able to materialize, which is somewhat uncommon
for June with prevailing south flow across Lk Superior.
Eventually, activity should grow up scale into a squall line, with
the potential for a more widespread wind threat east of I35 into
the evening.

Storms should move east of our CWA by around midnight as the
surface cold front continues to make steady progress to the
southeast, but at least some severe/heavy rain threat is expected
to persist well into the evening across northwest Wisconsin.

Gusty west/northwest winds are expected area-wide on Monday as
much drier and cooler air is advected into the region as the main
upper level trof continues to deepen to our east. There is a small
chance of a stray shower or TStorm across the Arrowhead in the
afternoon or evening, but did not feel this threat was high enough
to explicitly mention in the forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

Cooler northwest flow will result in some lingering clouds on
Monday night, but clouds should gradually clear from the southwest
as the night wears on. There could be a few lingering rain showers
in the Minnesota Arrowhead, but will continue to leave the
forecast dry for now. Upper level ridging will push back into the
region very quickly Tuesday Night, and early Wednesday, but will
flatten out as it gets to the western Great Lakes region. Will
continue to mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms midweek,
but coverage from mid to the end of the work week should generally
remain scattered. The best opportunity for widespread
precipitation looks to be Friday Night and Saturday, as a major
shortwave moves across the Northland. An upper level closed low
will develop in south central Canada by Saturday. Storms are
expected to fire up along a cold front on Saturday, and push
eastward Saturday and Saturday night. Could be some strong storms
during that time frame. A dry slot will then move in behind the
front Saturday Night, with the upper level low sagging into the
Lake Superior region by Sunday. This will bring showers and a few
thunderstorms to much of the CWA during that time frame. High
temperatures throughout the period are expected to range from the
70s to around 80. Lows will generally be in the 50s, but there
could be some 40s at times near Lake Superior.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

The big story for today and this evening will be the rapid
development of strong to locally severe thunderstorms along a cold
front. CAM's models indicate a potential initiation time of
between 20Z and 22Z across an area from KBRD to KHIB, with storms
strengthening rapidly, and then moving eastward through the late
afternoon and evening. We can expect the potential for very large
hail, damaging winds, and perhaps even tornadoes. The threat will
persist into the evening, before drier air moves in behind the
cold front. Gusty southwest winds are expected ahead of the front,
with gusty west to northwest winds behind the front later tonight
and on Monday. There could be a few showers lingering on Monday
due to colder air aloft, and some wrap around moisture, but any
coverage will be minimal. VFR conditions will be the rule, but
rapid deterioration to MVFR or even IFR will be possible with the
storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  75  50  74 /  80  10  10   0
INL  56  71  49  72 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  57  77  53  77 /  80   0   0   0
HYR  60  79  51  76 /  60  10   0   0
ASX  62  76  50  74 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Monday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-201130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
327 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM LAKE
VERMILION...TO GRAND RAPIDS...TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. THE
STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THERE
IS ALSO THE THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION...EASTWARD TO INTERSTATE 35...AND NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE IRON RANGE AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS AS
THEY MOVE INTO WISCONSIN...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY CURRENT WITH THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE A PLAN TO STAY
SAFE WITH THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SET UP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN THE HOURS OF ROUGHLY 3 PM
AND 9 PM FOR THE CONSIDERABLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT.

LSZ121-140>148-201130-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
327 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF
GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS...LOCALLY DANGEROUS WAVES... AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. ANYONE WITH PLANS FOR BEING ON LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION... AND HAVE A PLAN TO GET YOURSELF TO SHORE
AND SAFETY FROM THE STORMS.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR DETAILS ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...FOR STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. SEE THE LATEST
MARINE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

DAP

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
718 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             AITKIN                  46.53N 93.71W
06/19/2016  M1.00 INCH       AITKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
725 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     CROSBY                  46.49N 93.96W
06/19/2016                   CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
726 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             NISSWA                  46.50N 94.30W
06/19/2016  M3.00 INCH       CROW WING          MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

WL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
728 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             4 NE NISSWA             46.54N 94.24W
06/19/2016  M4.00 INCH       CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER ESTIMATED 70MPH WINDS.

&&

SGOHDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
735 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E WOODROW             46.38N 93.97W
06/19/2016                   CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWN

&&

SGOHDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
739 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             2 W BREEZY POINT        46.60N 94.26W
06/19/2016  M2.50 INCH       CROW WING          MN   PUBLIC

&&

SGOHDE