Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1238 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Updated for the new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Lowered max temps several degrees in northeast Minnesota, but just
a few degrees in northwest Wisconsin due to cloud cover. Overall
decreasing trend seen on radar, but will see a rebound later due
to slow moving short wave trof. Minor adjustments to other
elements as well.

UPDATE Issued at 936 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

The thunderstorms have diminished across northwest Wisconsin and
adjusted pops accordingly. The same is true for north central
Minnesota, roughly north of Cutfoot to Ely. Some showers and
storms were departing the Arrowhead, while a more general area of
showers were moving in behind it. The Brainerd Lakes area to Lake
Winnibigoshish through Grand Rapids and Aitkin were still seeing
some storms with moderate rainfall. Made some adjustments based on
these trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Large line of storms will be entering our western zones around 3
am. This line of storms has a history of producing damaging winds
greater than 70 mph. The best chance of severe of damaging winds
will be south of U. S. Highway 2 in area of extreme instability and
moisture gradient aided by inflow winds of 45 to 50 knots.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

A return to seasonable conditions mid to late week, then a warming
trend into the weekend. A few chances for rain showers in the
northwest flow pattern that develops, with a low chance for
thunderstorms over the weekend.

On the synoptic scale the mature low over southern Manitoba Tuesday
night will lift northeast towards Hudson Bay and weaken, partially
due to a mid-level ridge over the lower Great Lakes into New
England. To the west zonal flow will give way to weak ridge
developing over the Rockies late-week, gradually sliding eastward
into the northern Plains over the weekend as a weak shortwave
trough moves in across southern British Columbia. This will result
in a northwest flow pattern aloft through the rest of the work week.
In this northwest flow pattern a few weak clipper-like disturbances
are expected to result in a chance of showers across northern
Minnesota Wednesday, expanding into northwest Wisconsin Thursday. On
Friday an area of high pressure builds across the upper Mississippi
river valley, moving east towards the lower Great Lakes on Saturday.
As that high moves to the east and a weak mid-level ridge builds in
temperatures will warm to above normal, with a chance for showers
and few thunderstorms through the week associated with both a weak
warm front lifting northeast into the region as a series of weak mid-
level shortwave troughs behind the ridge axis.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

There is low confidence in the forecast. Showers and thunderstorms
this morning have complicated the forecast for additional showers
and storms this afternoon and evening. Conditions will probably
return to VFR this afternoon, and there will be an increasing
chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, with the peak of activity
likely late this afternoon and this evening when a cold front
approaches the region from the west. Some of the storms could be
severe. There are increasing indications that low (LIFR or IFR)
conditions could develop late this evening and overnight in the
wake of the front when fog and low stratus develop across the
Northland.

The VFR conditions should return Tuesday morning, as well as gusty
southwest winds by the late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  66  82  62 /  90  80  10  10
INL  77  64  80  61 /  70  70  30  40
BRD  76  65  84  63 / 100  70  10   0
HYR  85  71  85  63 /  70  70  20  10
ASX  85  70  85  64 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145.

&&

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...clc
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...Grochocinski

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
410 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-120945-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
410 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE
NORTHLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS...MAINLY IN THE DULUTH ENTRY AFFECTING THE PARK POINT
BEACH IN DULUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

LSZ121-140>148-120945-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
410 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL RESULT IN
BUILDING WAVES...MAINLY AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. SEE THE LATEST
MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

JJM

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
153 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ037-038-WIZ001-006-007-111930-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-WASHBURN-BURNETT-
153 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CARLTON...
NORTHEASTERN PINE...NORTHEASTERN BURNETT...SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND
NORTHWESTERN WASHBURN COUNTIES...

AT 152 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MAHTOWA...TO NEAR TRADE LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEBSTER...WEBB LAKE WISCONSIN...DAIRYLAND...HOLYOKE...SOUTH RANGE...
FOXBORO...DANBURY...CLOVERTON...DUXBURY...OAKLAND...NICKERSON...
KERRICK... PATTISON STATE PARK...RIVERSIDE...PATZAU...COZY
CORNER...AMNICON LAKE...
HARLIS...LYMAN LAKE AND BIRCH ISLAND LAKE.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROAD.

LAT...LON 4582 9255 4646 9265 4662 9196 4594 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 260DEG 26KT 4659 9268 4575 9253

STEWART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
216 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ034>036-111945-
SOUTH AITKIN-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
216 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AITKIN AND NORTHERN
CROW WING COUNTIES...

AT 216 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER IRONTON...OR 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BRAINERD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DEERWOOD AND CUYUNA AROUND 220 PM CDT.
  AITKIN AROUND 235 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE CUYUNA COUNTRY STATE
PARK...UPPER MISSION LAKE...BAIN...WOODROW...HASSMAN...EDWARD LAKE...
ROSSBURG...GUN LAKE...MISSION AND FARM ISLAND LAKE.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 4683 9349 4647 9326 4634 9409 4656 9427
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 254DEG 42KT 4648 9400

G2

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
226 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ037-038-WIZ001-006-112000-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BURNETT-
226 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CARLTON...
NORTHEASTERN PINE...NORTHEASTERN BURNETT AND SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...

AT 225 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
6 MILES SOUTH OF NEMADJI...TO NEAR DANBURY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEBSTER...WEBB LAKE
WISCONSIN...DAIRYLAND...HOLYOKE...FOXBORO...DANBURY...
CLOVERTON...DUXBURY...OAKLAND...NICKERSON...KERRICK...RIVERSIDE...
MARKVILLE...KINGSDALE...DUQUETTE...YELLOW LAKE...MOOSE
JUNCTION...COZY CORNER AND HARLIS.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR ONE OF THE MANY AREA LAKES...GET OFF OF THE
WATER IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4642 9267 4655 9225 4612 9205 4605 9205
      4586 9242
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 235DEG 36KT 4639 9256 4594 9239

STEWART