Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
640 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Updated to add likely to categorical thunderstorms further south
along line from BRD to DLH with severe thunderstorms possible
north of the iron range this morning. Currently...there are 2
lines of strong to severe thunderstorms moving across northern
MN. This line will continue to move east this morning across the
north with damaging winds the main threat. This is similar to last
Sunday with morning convection with the main show in the afternoon
and evening. We will see if the same scenario develops today with
outflow boundaries laid down or the storms will cause some
disruption in the atmosphere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main concern for short term is severe weather today and this
evening.

Current surface analysis indicates an area of showers and thunderstorms
moving along the international border. This area will continue to
move along the border early this morning. Another area of strong
to severe thunderstorms extends from Warroad to Fosston. This
area of storms should clip the western portion of Koochiching
county in the next hour.

The main focus for the short term is another round of severe
weather this afternoon and this evening across the forecast area.
SPC basically has the entire forecast area in an enhanced area
for severe thunderstorms. The situation today is somewhat similar
to last Sunday's situation. Forecast CAPE values are a little
lower (3K <today> vs. 4K <Sunday>) and the best shear region is
behind the front while it was with the front last Sunday. As
indicated by the day shift...unlike last Sunday...there will not
be as strong as a cap so thunderstorms will develop earlier.
But...like last Sunday...a cold front will move through NE MN this
afternoon and NW WI this evening. Out ahead of of it...dewpoints
will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s. There will be a
possibility of supercells at the beginning of the evening with a
line developing in the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and
damaging winds along with possible tornadoes will be the main
threats with the storms

After the front passes...an area of high pressure will build into
the region late saturday night brining in cooler and drier air for
Sunday. A weak shortwave will move through Northern MN Sunday
afternoon brining a chance for showers.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A cut off upper lever low will translate across Ontario through
sunday night. The resulting cyclonic flow, along with much cooler
air, to dive over the western lake superior region Monday. The cold
air aloft will bring tight pressure gradient into the region,
producing gusty northwest winds sunday night through Monday.

Latest guidance suggests temps at 850hPa are on the order of just a
degree or two above zero C with the core of the coldest air that
tracks over the MN arrowhead zones Monday. High Temperatures on
Monday will be well below normal across the region with readings
topping out generally in the 60s. The steep lapse rates and
instability will also result in scattered rain showers during this
time.

Surface high pressure and mid level ridging will build into the
Northland through Mid week, bringing a return to seasonable
temperatures and winds of generally less than 10 kts.

Rain chances return to the forecast late Wednesday through Thursday
as a vort max, with transition to cold air advection, drops out of
canada and tracks over the forecast area. Latest GFS/ECM are in good
agreement that an upper level low deepens over hudson bay through
the end of the week, keeping the western great lakes region in a
cool unstable cyclonic flow as we go into the Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Area of Strong to severe thunderstorms affecting the INL TAF site
at issuance time with mvfr-ifr conditons expected through mid-
morning. For the rest of the TAF sites this morning...mainly vfr
conditionsd with mvfr cigs in showers. A cold front will move
through NE MN this afternoon and nw wi this evening and will cause
showers and strong to severe thunderstorms to develop with
damaging winds and large hail possible at all taf sites. High
pressure will build into the region overnight improving the
condition sto vfr with mvfr-ifr in fog possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  57  78  53 /  80  70  20  20
INL  81  58  69  51 /  80  30  50  40
BRD  85  59  79  55 /  80  20  10  10
HYR  86  59  80  55 /  80  90  10  10
ASX  86  60  80  55 /  70  80  10  20

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...Stewart
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...Stewart

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
329 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-261130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
329 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR A TORNADO. THERE IS AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER SUCH AS NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY PLAN TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD STORMS THREATEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 100 PM THIS AFTERNOON

LSZ121-140>148-261130-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
329 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AND
LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. IF VENTURING
OUT ON THE WATER TODAY...PLAN AHEAD TO LOCATE THE NEAREST SAFE
HARBOR AND ENSURE YOU CAN RECEIVE WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS OF 25 KNOTS OR MORE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY...PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
WAVES AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

STEWART

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
309 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MNZ010-250900-
KOOCHICHING-
309 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
KOOCHICHING COUNTY...

AT 305 AM CDT...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR WILLIAMS TO 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAUDETTE TO
LOWER RED LAKE... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS STORM HOLDS
TOGETHER.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BIRCHDALE AND FRANZ JEVNE STATE PARK.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 4870 9435 4871 9430 4870 9426 4865 9425
      4865 9419 4864 9404 4831 9421 4821 9442
      4842 9443 4870 9443 4871 9442 4871 9438
TIME...MOT...LOC 0805Z 231DEG 39KT 4874 9493 4847 9480 4798 9506

WL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
354 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MNZ011-250930-
NORTH ST. LOUIS-
354 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY...

AT 353 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ASH LAKE...OR 18 MILES
SOUTH OF VOYAGEURS NATIONAL PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VOYAGEURS NATIONAL PARK...ASH LAKE...CUSSON...KABETOGAMA LAKE...SAND
POINT LAKE AND BLACK DUCK LAKE.

SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 4852 9263 4850 9263 4850 9269 4846 9271
      4844 9269 4844 9266 4845 9251 4841 9245
      4837 9248 4831 9244 4808 9281 4819 9302
      4855 9265 4854 9264
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 220DEG 32KT 4820 9284

WL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
603 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MNZ010-018-251130-
NORTH ITASCA-KOOCHICHING-
603 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ITASCA AND
SOUTHWESTERN KOOCHICHING COUNTIES...

AT 602 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
15 MILES NORTHEAST OF WASKISH TO 9 MILES NORTH OF SHEVLIN...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...PENNY SIZE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREAS OF
MARGIE...GEMMELL...NORTHOME...ORTH AND FUNKLEY THROUGH 700 AM.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 4828 9442 4838 9379 4781 9403 4766 9441
TIME...MOT...LOC 1102Z 244DEG 41KT 4830 9425 4766 9521

GRANING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
620 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MNZ011-012-251145-
NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
620 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...LINE OF SEVERE STORMS APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA
WILDERNESS...

AT 610 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN NORTHWEST SAINT LOUIS
COUNTY...NEAR VOYAGEURS NATIONAL PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...BRIEF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING.

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS
THROUGH THE MORNING.

ON A CURRENT TRACK...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS
WILL REACH THE ELY AREA AROUND 800 AM...MOVING INTO THE SNOW BANK
LAKE AND FOREST CENTER AREA AROUND 900 AM.

SEVERE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

LAT...LON 4836 9206 4832 9200 4827 9201 4823 9196
      4820 9172 4812 9171 4811 9156 4804 9157
      4808 9127 4822 9095 4780 9091 4794 9295
      4828 9241 4822 9237 4825 9228 4832 9231
      4835 9228 4836 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1110Z 280DEG 22KT 4854 9255 4809 9311 4798 9359

GRANING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
747 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MNZ011-019-251315-
CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-NORTH ST. LOUIS-
747 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ST. LOUIS
COUNTY...

AT 747 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CRANE LAKE TO NEAR MEADOW BROOK...AND MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  NORTHWESTERN BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS AROUND 805 AM
  CDT.
  GHEEN AROUND 810 AM CDT.
  COOK AROUND 815 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE LOON LAKE...ECHO
LAKE...CELINA...LAKE AGNES...TROUT LAKE...LINDEN GROVE...LAC LA CROIX AND
CROOKED LAKE.

LAT...LON 4836 9206 4833 9205 4832 9200 4827 9201
      4824 9197 4825 9195 4823 9196 4824 9189
      4822 9188 4780 9240 4782 9308 4790 9308
      4832 9245 4822 9236 4825 9227 4827 9229
      4832 9231 4836 9226 4834 9221 4836 9216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1247Z 276DEG 24KT 4838 9230 4787 9306

GRANING