Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
702 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

An upper level low was located in northeast MT at 19Z. Meanwhile, a
surface low was meandering around eastern SD. A warm front extended
eastward from the low across southern MN. A ridge of high pressure
was draped along the Canadian border at 19Z and has kept much of
this area of the region rain free this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms have been percolating mainly over the southern tier of
the MN portion of the forecast area today. So far, rainfall amounts
from live gages has been generally less than 2 inches. However, Crow
Wing and Itasca counties have a few reports between 2 and 2.25 inches
of rain. Much of northwest WI has been rain free, with the exception
of the storms that have developed this afternoon from Burnett to
Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland counties. The current batch of storms
is underneath a good sized area of 700-400mb differential vorticity
advection.

Expecting some training of thunderstorms late this afternoon from
the Brainerd Lakes region east to Aitkin, but expect this activity
to diminish as the aforementioned area of vorticity advection lifts
northward into a more stable atmosphere. Will however, see more
storms tonight across the area as the surface low lifts
northeastward into west central MN before being absorbed into the
stronger surface low in Saskatchewan.

A few storms may linger over the Arrowhead and the Chequamegon
National Forest area of northwest Wisconsin Tuesday morning as an
upper level impulse moves through. Drier air arrives elsewhere
Tuesday allowing for a rain free day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

A stacked low will move east across southern Canada during the
middle of the week. The Northland will initially be in warm and
humid south-southwest flow, but the low's cold front will move
through the Northland Wednesday, bringing cloud cover and low
chances of showers. Cannot rule out thunder if there is enough
heating, but the cloud cover will limit the threat. The Northland
will then be in cool northwest flow Thursday, which will promote
widespread broken/overcast cumulus and some showers. The threat of
thunder is low, but not impossible.

The models are trending drier for late this week, with potentially
surface high pressure over the region Friday and Saturday. The
forecast kept some low chances of showers until there is greater
confidence in the trend.

Return flow will probably bring more heat and humidity to the
Northland later in the weekend and early next week, and bring back
the chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will affect the terminals
periodically through the evening. A mix of VFR, high end MVFR
ceilings will occur with some LIFR in the vicinity of the
strongest storms. Gusty winds are likely near the stronger storms
too. These storms will diminish from west to east late tonight.
VFR on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  80  61  79 /  90  10   0  20
INL  65  77  61  68 /  80  10  30  50
BRD  65  81  63  79 /  70   0   0  20
HYR  68  82  64  83 /  80  10   0  10
ASX  68  82  64  83 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145.

&&

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
410 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-120945-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
410 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE
NORTHLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS...MAINLY IN THE DULUTH ENTRY AFFECTING THE PARK POINT
BEACH IN DULUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

LSZ121-140>148-120945-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
410 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL RESULT IN
BUILDING WAVES...MAINLY AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. SEE THE LATEST
MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

JJM

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
615 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

WIZ001-006-007-112345-
DOUGLAS-WASHBURN-BURNETT-
615 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BURNETT...SOUTH CENTRAL
DOUGLAS AND NORTHERN WASHBURN COUNTIES...

AT 615 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WEBSTER...OR 18 MILES
WEST OF SPOONER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...PENNY SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WEBB LAKE WISCONSIN AROUND 630 PM CDT.
  MINONG AROUND 645 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE MINONG FLOWAGE...BIG
SAND LAKE...SPRINGBROOK...LAMPSON...YELLOW LAKE...BIRCH ISLAND
LAKE... RIVERSIDE...OAKLAND...MCKENZIE LAKE AND EARL.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 4577 9249 4595 9256 4598 9250 4597 9247
      4601 9245 4603 9241 4601 9237 4602 9235
      4607 9233 4607 9230 4608 9230 4625 9196
      4595 9164 4573 9226
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 235DEG 35KT 4591 9225

G2

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
617 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

WIZ003-007-008-112345-
WASHBURN-SAWYER-ASHLAND-
617 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SAWYER...
SOUTHWESTERN ASHLAND AND CENTRAL WASHBURN COUNTIES...

AT 616 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
6 MILES WEST OF SEELEY...TO NEAR SPOONER...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...DIME SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HAYWARD AROUND 620 PM CDT.
  SEELEY AROUND 625 PM CDT.
  ROUND LAKE AROUND 630 PM CDT.
  NEW POST AROUND 640 PM CDT.
  STONE LAKE AND CLAM LAKE AROUND 645 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE RESERVE...SISSABAGAMA
LAKE...NORTHWOODS BEACH...MOOSE LAKE SAWYER COUNTY...SPRINGBROOK...
LAMPSON...TEAL LAKE...TOTAGATIC FLOWAGE...EARL AND STANBERRY.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 4583 9203 4587 9203 4616 9155 4616 9079
      4577 9142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 276DEG 41KT 4615 9149 4584 9201

DAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
703 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S CROSBY              46.48N 93.95W
07/11/2016                   CROW WING          MN   PUBLIC

            FLOODING IS REPORTED IN CROSBY.

&&

G2

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