River Flood Warning 3, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
836 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

major rain event ongoing across a large portion of the forecast
area and may continue most of the night. We are concerned this
may evolve into a high-end life-threatening situation. A
stationary front lies across central MN into northcentral WI with
the storms with the heaviest rainfall along it. The front has been
wobbling north/south for the past 8 hours focusing the heavy rain
across the Cass-Crow Wing-Aitkin Pine counties/Burnett/southern
Douglas to Ashland county and the Hayward Lakes in NW WI. Rainfall
amounts of 3 to 5 inches in 6 hours are common across that area.
Unfortunely, it looks like it may continue into the early morning
hours. PWATs are very high with values at 1.8 to 2.2 over the
affected region. A low level jet of 35-45 knots is developing and
interact with the boundary. Radar shows development on the
southern end of the line. These conditions will cause widespread
flooding across the affected areas and the event could approach
the June 2012 heavy rainfall event. The Twin Ports will not be
affected by the heaviest rainfall storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

An upper level low was located in northeast MT at 19Z. Meanwhile, a
surface low was meandering around eastern SD. A warm front extended
eastward from the low across southern MN. A ridge of high pressure
was draped along the Canadian border at 19Z and has kept much of
this area of the region rain free this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms have been percolating mainly over the southern tier of
the MN portion of the forecast area today. So far, rainfall amounts
from live gages has been generally less than 2 inches. However, Crow
Wing and Itasca counties have a few reports between 2 and 2.25 inches
of rain. Much of northwest WI has been rain free, with the exception
of the storms that have developed this afternoon from Burnett to
Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland counties. The current batch of storms
is underneath a good sized area of 700-400mb differential vorticity
advection.

Expecting some training of thunderstorms late this afternoon from
the Brainerd Lakes region east to Aitkin, but expect this activity
to diminish as the aforementioned area of vorticity advection lifts
northward into a more stable atmosphere. Will however, see more
storms tonight across the area as the surface low lifts
northeastward into west central MN before being absorbed into the
stronger surface low in Saskatchewan.

A few storms may linger over the Arrowhead and the Chequamegon
National Forest area of northwest Wisconsin Tuesday morning as an
upper level impulse moves through. Drier air arrives elsewhere
Tuesday allowing for a rain free day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

A stacked low will move east across southern Canada during the
middle of the week. The Northland will initially be in warm and
humid south-southwest flow, but the low's cold front will move
through the Northland Wednesday, bringing cloud cover and low
chances of showers. Cannot rule out thunder if there is enough
heating, but the cloud cover will limit the threat. The Northland
will then be in cool northwest flow Thursday, which will promote
widespread broken/overcast cumulus and some showers. The threat of
thunder is low, but not impossible.

The models are trending drier for late this week, with potentially
surface high pressure over the region Friday and Saturday. The
forecast kept some low chances of showers until there is greater
confidence in the trend.

Return flow will probably bring more heat and humidity to the
Northland later in the weekend and early next week, and bring back
the chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will affect the terminals
periodically through the evening. A mix of VFR, high end MVFR
ceilings will occur with some LIFR in the vicinity of the
strongest storms. Gusty winds are likely near the stronger storms
too. These storms will diminish from west to east late tonight.
VFR on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  80  61  79 /  90  10   0  20
INL  65  77  61  68 /  80  10  30  50
BRD  65  81  63  79 /  70   0   0  20
HYR  68  82  64  83 /  80  10   0  10
ASX  68  82  64  83 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145.

&&

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
410 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-120945-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
410 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE
NORTHLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS...MAINLY IN THE DULUTH ENTRY AFFECTING THE PARK POINT
BEACH IN DULUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

LSZ121-140>148-120945-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
410 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL RESULT IN
BUILDING WAVES...MAINLY AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. SEE THE LATEST
MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

JJM

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
926 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

WIZ001-002-007-008-120300-
DOUGLAS-WASHBURN-SAWYER-BAYFIELD-
926 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SAWYER...
SOUTHWESTERN BAYFIELD...SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS AND CENTRAL WASHBURN
COUNTIES...

AT 926 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BARNES...TO NEAR TREGO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BARNES AROUND 935 PM CDT.
  IRON RIVER AROUND 945 PM CDT.
  HAYWARD AROUND 950 PM CDT.
  LITTLE ROUND LAKE AROUND 955 PM CDT.
  ROUND LAKE...CABLE...INO AND SEELEY AROUND 1000 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE SPOONER LAKE...
TOTAGATIC LAKE...MIDDLE EAU CLAIRE LAKE...UPPER EAU CLAIRE LAKE...
SPRINGBROOK...LAMPSON...NELSON LAKE...GRINDSTONE LAKE...TOTAGATIC FLOWAGE
AND EARL.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4572 9201 4639 9181 4677 9104 4598 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 232DEG 39KT 4635 9161 4585 9176

DAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
950 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE PLEASANT VALLEY   46.55N 92.38W
07/11/2016                   CARLTON            MN   PUBLIC

            SHEETZ ROADWAY WASHED OUT IN TWO PLACES. WATER COMING
            INTO THE BASEMENT WINDOWS AND GARAGE AT A RESIDENCE ON
            THE ROADWAY.

&&

WL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1011 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW MOOSE LAKE STATE  46.46N 92.75W
07/11/2016                   CARLTON            MN   911 CALL CENTER

            ROAD WASHED OUT ALONG COUNTY ROAD 61 AND MILLS ROAD.
            REPORT OF ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OF STANDING WATER.

&&

WL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1020 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HINCKLEY                46.01N 92.94W
07/11/2016                   PINE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON DUNN AVENUE THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES OF WATER
            STANDING ON THE ROADWAY. ALSO REPORTED 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
            WATER STANDING ON THE ROADWAY ON 3RD STREET AND LAWLER
            AVENUE.

&&

WL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1022 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

WIZ002>004-008-120400-
IRON-SAWYER-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-
1022 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL SAWYER...
ASHLAND...NORTHWESTERN IRON AND SOUTHEASTERN BAYFIELD COUNTIES...

AT 1021 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM NEAR ASHLAND...TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHIPPEWA FLOWAGE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHIPPEWA FLOWAGE...ASHLAND...SANBORN...MELLEN...BARKSDALE...MARENGO...
SAXON...GURNEY...UPSON...NAMEKAGON LAKE...NAMEKAGON...ODANAH...CLAM LAKE...
NEW POST...MONTREAL...KIMBALL...MORSE...PENCE...MOOSE LAKE SAWYER COUNTY
AND TEAL LAKE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROAD.

LAT...LON 4627 9030 4590 9126 4661 9098 4692 9039
      4689 9039 4686 9043 4680 9060 4676 9063
      4675 9069 4673 9072 4662 9053 4661 9044
      4657 9044 4654 9040 4655 9033 4652 9031
      4652 9027 4650 9026 4650 9022 4649 9021
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 233DEG 47KT 4660 9083 4599 9108

DAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1023 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WOLFORD                 46.55N 93.98W
07/11/2016  E5.25 INCH       CROW WING          MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY. STILL RAINING AT THE TIME OF THE
            REPORT.

&&

WL