Tornado Warning 52, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
301 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...updated short and long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Focus in the short term is severe weather tonight. Satellite shows cumulus
across southwest Kansas. Sfc analysis shows an old outflow boundary
moving north across the forecast district and a dryline farther to the
southwest. We launched at 19Z special sounding. There is plenty of SBCAPE
with values over 4000 J/kg. The sounding did show a significant cap
in place, but this should erode over time with continued sfc heating.
Wind shear is supportive for supercells with 38 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear
and 21 kt of 0-1 km shear for tornadoes. The 12Z 4 km NAM showed intense
supercells across southwest Kansas with significant updraft helicity.
The HRRR is showing the same thing, although differs in location of
the storms. Convection should form along the boundary across southwest
Kansas (probably from Garden City down to Meade) and then move to the
east through this evening. Threats will include tornadoes (some of which
could be strong), giant hail of 3-4", and outflow winds as the system
could form into a line later on in the evening. The central zones are
most under the gun as far as severe weather is concerned.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The next chance for storms in on Thursday as a wave moves out. Severe
weather is possible once again during the afternoon and evening. The
best chance of storms will be across the eastern zones. Beyond this
we may see another chance of storms next weekend. Temperatures through
the extended period will be on the warm to near normal side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

KDDC is slowly improving out of LIFR conditions this morning and should
be MVFR by 19Z. KGCK/KHYS will remain VFR. Attention then turns to afternoon
convection. Latest guidance has the dryline east of KGCK, so don't have
TS/CB in the TAF. Do have CB/TS first for KDDC and then later for KHYS
this afternoon and evening. KDDC stands the best chance for seeing +TSRA.
Otherwise, winds will be ESE to SSE 12-25 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  89  57  87 /  70   0   0  20
GCK  58  90  52  87 /  40   0   0  20
EHA  53  90  52  86 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  56  91  54  89 /  20   0   0  10
HYS  62  87  57  85 /  70   0   0  50
P28  65  90  66  88 /  70   0   0  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
543 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251045-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
543 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 /443 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A FEW MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF A
LINE FROM MACKSVILLE TO WAKEENEY, BUT THESE ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
SEVERE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
DRYLINE FROM DIGHTON TO MEADE, AND SOME OF THESE MAY PRODUCE HAIL
LARGER THAN BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS, AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 10 PM.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  WEDNESDAY...
  ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM EAST OF A LINE FROM
DIGHTON TO MEADE.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
614 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     TORNADO          12 S BEELER             38.27N 100.15W
05/24/2016                   NESS               KS   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF TORNADO ON THE GROUND. LOCATION
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
619 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TORNADO          11 SSE BEELER           38.30N 100.10W
05/24/2016                   NESS               KS   STORM CHASER

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND. LOCATION ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
631 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TORNADO          7 SW DODGE CITY         37.69N 100.11W
05/24/2016                   FORD               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TWO TORNADOES 6 TO
            8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DODGE CITY.

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     TORNADO          6 ESE ENSIGN            37.63N 100.13W
05/24/2016                   FORD               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF 2 TORNADOES ON THE
            GROUND.

&&

AW

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