Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
301 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...updated short and long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Focus in the short term is severe weather tonight. Satellite shows cumulus
across southwest Kansas. Sfc analysis shows an old outflow boundary
moving north across the forecast district and a dryline farther to the
southwest. We launched at 19Z special sounding. There is plenty of SBCAPE
with values over 4000 J/kg. The sounding did show a significant cap
in place, but this should erode over time with continued sfc heating.
Wind shear is supportive for supercells with 38 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear
and 21 kt of 0-1 km shear for tornadoes. The 12Z 4 km NAM showed intense
supercells across southwest Kansas with significant updraft helicity.
The HRRR is showing the same thing, although differs in location of
the storms. Convection should form along the boundary across southwest
Kansas (probably from Garden City down to Meade) and then move to the
east through this evening. Threats will include tornadoes (some of which
could be strong), giant hail of 3-4", and outflow winds as the system
could form into a line later on in the evening. The central zones are
most under the gun as far as severe weather is concerned.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The next chance for storms in on Thursday as a wave moves out. Severe
weather is possible once again during the afternoon and evening. The
best chance of storms will be across the eastern zones. Beyond this
we may see another chance of storms next weekend. Temperatures through
the extended period will be on the warm to near normal side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

KDDC is slowly improving out of LIFR conditions this morning and should
be MVFR by 19Z. KGCK/KHYS will remain VFR. Attention then turns to afternoon
convection. Latest guidance has the dryline east of KGCK, so don't have
TS/CB in the TAF. Do have CB/TS first for KDDC and then later for KHYS
this afternoon and evening. KDDC stands the best chance for seeing +TSRA.
Otherwise, winds will be ESE to SSE 12-25 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  89  57  87 /  70   0   0  20
GCK  58  90  52  87 /  40   0   0  20
EHA  53  90  52  86 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  56  91  54  89 /  20   0   0  10
HYS  62  87  57  85 /  70   0   0  50
P28  65  90  66  88 /  70   0   0  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
543 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251045-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
543 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 /443 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A FEW MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF A
LINE FROM MACKSVILLE TO WAKEENEY, BUT THESE ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
SEVERE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
DRYLINE FROM DIGHTON TO MEADE, AND SOME OF THESE MAY PRODUCE HAIL
LARGER THAN BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS, AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 10 PM.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  WEDNESDAY...
  ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM EAST OF A LINE FROM
DIGHTON TO MEADE.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1102 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

KSZ064-065-079-250445-
EDWARDS KS-PAWNEE KS-HODGEMAN KS-
1102 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1102 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KINSLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINSLEY...LEWIS...GARFIELD...BELPRE AND SANFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 9943 3798 9964 3821 9931 3794 9902
      3790 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 245DEG 33KT 3796 9939

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1123 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

KSZ066-250515-
STAFFORD KS-
1123 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1123 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
STAFFORD COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 9859 3809 9868 3819 9847 3801 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 236DEG 33KT 3806 9857

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

KSZ046-065-250545-
RUSH KS-PAWNEE KS-
1202 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN RUSH AND NORTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM
CDT...

AT 1201 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES WEST OF PAWNEE ROCK...OR 6 MILES EAST OF ASH VALLEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES WAS REPORTED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LARNED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LARNED AND ASH VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 9912 3830 9925 3849 9904 3847 9903
      3826 9903 3826 9891 3824 9891
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 238DEG 21KT 3829 9910

TURNER

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