Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
419 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 413 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

Increased thunderstorm coverage through the evening. Scattered
supercells with very large hail and tornadoes are expected.
Tornado watch outlines areas where the instability/shear
combination most favors tornadic supercells. Threat will continue
through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

An active afternoon and evening on tap, with scattered severe
thunderstorms expected. Primary shortwave of interest was
approaching from NE New Mexico at midday, with surface pressures
just beginning to fall as surface cyclone develops near Clayton.
Still waiting for surface wind/pressure patterns to organize,
which will happen quickly early this afternoon. 12z NAM run seems
to have a good handle on the situation, with forcing for ascent
arriving 4-7 pm. NAM suggests a bimodal distribution of severe
impacts, with supercells developing across the SE counties 4-7 pm,
and also near the triple point across the northern zones. Mprning
WAA convection is clearing the CWA as of midday, but residual
outflow boundaries are present SE of Dodge City that will likely
augment tornadic potential with the expected supercells after 4pm.
Very large to giant hail is likely from the strongest supercells,
with tornadoes possible both across the SE zones, and near the
triple point. All convection should be winding down around 06z, as
shortwave departs and boundary layer stabilizes behind the
dryline. A large range in low temperatures Monday morning, from
near 40 in NW Hamilton county, to lower 60s at Kiowa in Barber
county.

Monday...Parent upper low drifts aimlessly across South Dakota and
Nebraska, with cyclonic flow persisting across Kansas. NAM
forecasts decent instability remaining in this regime on Monday,
with negative LIs and CAPE to 1000 J/kg. As such, after a dry
period Monday morning, some instability showers and storms are
expected to redevelop Monday afternoon, with an emphasis on the
northern zones. Severe threat on Monday will be well removed from
SW KS, across SE KS and E Oklahoma. Afternoon max temps on Monday
will range from lower 70s far NW to lower 80s far SE.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

Tuesday...Noticeably warmer. Flat ridge axis passes SW KS Tuesday
morning, followed by SW prefrontal warming ahead of incoming
trough and associated cold front. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to favor the NW zones
Tuesday afternoon with modest instability ahead of the approaching
cold front.

Cold front has been consistently progged by all guidance to pass
SW KS Tuesday night with northerly winds. Any showers and
thunderstorms during this time period will favor the northern
zones closer to the greater lift.

Wednesday...Noticeably cooler. But with plenty of mid May sun, it
will be pleasant. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Thursday and Friday...Warming trend under NW flow aloft. Included
a mention of showers and thunderstorms across the SE zones Friday
afternoon as both 12z GFS/ECMWF suggest.

Another cold front passage Friday night will usher in cooler
temperatures for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 8 2016

Scattered TSRA will develop across SW KS this afternoon and
evening, as a strong shortwave arrives during peak heating.
As usual, convection will remain scattered in coverage, so
confidence on any direct impacts on any terminal is low.
Atmosphere will be most conducive to severe convection near P28
this afternoon, and near HYS this evening. Isolated storms may
also form near/east of DDC this afternoon/evening. The lowest
chance of convective aviation impacts is at GCK. Strongest storms
through this evening are expected to have a large hail/tornado
potential. All convection is expected to end by/after 06z Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  80  51  83 /  20  10  10  20
GCK  46  76  49  82 /  20  20  10  30
EHA  47  76  50  83 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  46  80  49  86 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  54  77  54  79 /  50  20  20  40
P28  59  83  54  87 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
439 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-091015-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
439 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 /339 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
OR LARGER, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES, WILL BE
FROM JUST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY AND INTO MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. MOST OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ENDING BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY, THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM DIGHTON TO NEAR DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

06

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