Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Dodge City, KS

958 
WWUS53 KDDC 020308
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1008 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSC075-129-187-020345-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-160702T0345Z/
MORTON KS-HAMILTON KS-STANTON KS-
1008 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM
CDT/945 PM MDT/ FOR NORTHWESTERN MORTON...SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND
WESTERN STANTON COUNTIES...

AT 1007 PM CDT/907 PM MDT/...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF THE SAUNDERS ELEVATOR TO 14
MILES SOUTH OF STONINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANTER...RICHFIELD AND THE SAUNDERS ELEVATOR. 

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL...POTENTIALLY
FLOODING...RAINFALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3782 10204 3791 10181 3718 10178 3711 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 243DEG 14KT 3766 10212 3710 10212 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

TURNER

037 
WWUS53 KDDC 020328
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1028 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSC075-129-187-020345-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-160702T0345Z/
MORTON KS-HAMILTON KS-STANTON KS-
1028 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM
CDT/945 PM MDT/ FOR NORTHWESTERN MORTON...SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND
WESTERN STANTON COUNTIES...

AT 1027 PM CDT/927 PM MDT/...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHOF MANTER TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ELKHART...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANTER...RICHFIELD AND THE SAUNDERS ELEVATOR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3782 10204 3791 10181 3718 10178 3711 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 243DEG 14KT 3769 10204 3713 10204 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

TURNER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
926 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Given radar trends of a strengthening QLCS complex entering the
western zones, and an extremely moist airmass (dewpoints
approaching 70 and PW near 1.5 inch), decided to post a flash
flood watch for the NW zones through 7 AM Saturday. Latest HRRR
drives a large MCS across the CWA overnight, as such, some
flooding is possible south of this watch area. Storms are also
intensifying in SE Colorado, so some severe weather is possible
for the next several hours.

UPDATE Issued at 525 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Updated rainfall/thunderstorm coverage in the grids, along with
QPF/wx/sky grids, to align with radar/satellite trends, the
neighboring WFOs, and the HRRR forecasts through tonight. Radar
trends show strong to severe convection west of Lamar and
approaching Elkhart. In the short term, there will be a limited
threat of severe weather across far SW Kansas, where the
instability axis resides, with ML CAPE near 2000 J/kg. Later
tonight, agree with previous forecaster that another MCS will
track mainly across the northern zones. 18z GFS and HRRR strongly
suggest this evolution, as such increased pops into the
likely/definite category north of Dodge City. Primary threat
through tonight will be excessive rainfall and localized flooding,
with an exceptionally moist atmosphere with precipitable water
ranging from 1.6 inches NW to 1.8 inches SE as of 5 pm mesoanalysis.
Will need to consider a flash flood watch over the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A stronger upper level shortwave trough will move from Four Corners
region and into western Kansas tonight. Another MCS (Mesoscale
Convective Complex) will likely move out of Colorado and and across
much of western Kansas tonight with several upper level waves.
Current models however forecast the best QPF and best heavy rain
chances north of Dodge City with the area from around Syracuse to
near Garden City and LaCrosse and north. Will graduate rainfall
chances with that in mind. Severe chances look minimal tonight with
maybe some small hail and strong winds to 40 to 50 mph. Very heavy
rainfall is expected wherever the MCS tracks with precipitable water
values from 1.5 to near 2 inches. Lows tonight will range in the mid
to upper 60s.

For Saturday, the strong shortwave will continue to move across
western Kansas with an attendant cold front. The cold front is
forecast to be near Hays to Dodge City and Meade by mid afternoon
with the best chances for storms near and east of the front.
Strong to severe storms are possible mainly along and east of the
cold front with 2000 to 3000 J/kg CAPE and strong mid level
shear. Highs will be around 90 east of the front and low to mid
80s west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

For Saturday night, a cold front will continue to move east into
central Kansas with lingering strong to severe thunderstorms mainly
east of Dodge City into parts of south central Kansas.

Then for Sunday into next Friday, a mainly dry period is forecast
with a warming trend. Highs warm from the 80s Sunday and around 90
for Monday, the 4th of July, into the mid to upper 90s from
Tuesday into next Friday, as warmer upper level ridging builds
into the Central Plains. Overnight lows will gradually warm also
from 60s into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Scattered, mainly nocturnal, convection will continue to impact
aviation and be the main challenge in the 00z TAFs. Highest
confidence that convective TEMPO groups will be needed at GCK
later this evening and HYS overnight. Model consensus is for
another MCS complex to track across western Kansas tonight, with
TAF amendments likely. Severe risk will be limited to outflow wind
gusts to near 50 kts. Excessively heavy rain is likely from any
storm, with brief IFR likely. Consensus of short term models
places the lowest (MVFR/IFR) stratus cigs near HYS beginning
around 09z Sat. SE winds will persist outside of convection.
Another brief break of dry weather around 15-18z Sat, before
scattered TSRA redevelop by 21z Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  85  64  82 /  40  50  40  20
GCK  67  83  63  83 /  70  40  40  10
EHA  65  87  63  87 /  60  50  40  10
LBL  70  88  65  85 /  40  50  40  10
HYS  64  79  62  78 /  80  50  50  20
P28  70  91  69  84 /  20  60  70  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ043-
044-061>063-074-075.

&&

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-020900-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
348 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 /248 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN. IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. AS OF NOW,
NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
658 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSZ086-087-020045-
SEWARD KS-MEADE KS-
658 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 658 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES EAST OF HAYNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KISMET...MEADE STATE PARK...HAYNE AND PLAINS.

LAT...LON 3708 10082 3734 10058 3715 10029 3700 10069
      3700 10072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 229DEG 16KT 3708 10072

FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
704 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSZ061-074-075-084-020045-
GRANT KS-HAMILTON KS-MORTON KS-STANTON KS-
704 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MORTON...SOUTH
CENTRAL HAMILTON...CENTRAL STANTON AND NORTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM CDT/645 PM MDT/...

AT 704 PM CDT/604 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF MANTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOHNSON CITY AND MANTER.

LAT...LON 3736 10180 3746 10196 3780 10190 3772 10148
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 204DEG 25KT 3748 10188

FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
918 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSZ061-074-020315-
HAMILTON KS-STANTON KS-
918 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN STANTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT/915 PM MDT/...

AT 917 PM CDT/817 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF TWO BUTTES...OR 20 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF COOLIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
HAMILTON AND NORTHWESTERN STANTON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 10204 3803 10183 3764 10179 3766 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 263DEG 15KT 3778 10218

FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
943 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSZ045-064-020345-
NESS KS-HODGEMAN KS-
943 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NESS AND
NORTHWESTERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 943 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTHEAST OF KALVESTA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN NESS
AND NORTHWESTERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3848 9978 3812 9973 3813 10020 3829 10021
      3832 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 263DEG 14KT 3822 10016

FINCH