Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Dodge City, KS

121 
WWUS53 KDDC 020409
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSC067-075-093-187-020430-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-160702T0430Z/
HAMILTON KS-STANTON KS-KEARNY KS-GRANT KS-
1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM
CDT/1030 PM MDT/ FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...NORTHEASTERN STANTON...
SOUTHWESTERN KEARNY AND NORTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTIES...

AT 1109 PM CDT/1009 PM MDT/...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF KENDALL TO 10 MILES NORTH OF
ULYSSES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KENDALL AND BIG BOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 10146 3765 10128 3754 10160 3788 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 231DEG 20KT 3798 10155 3773 10142 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

TURNER

287 
WWUS53 KDDC 020425
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1125 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSC067-075-093-187-020434-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-160702T0430Z/
HAMILTON KS-STANTON KS-KEARNY KS-GRANT KS-
1125 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...
NORTHEASTERN STANTON...SOUTHWESTERN KEARNY AND NORTHWESTERN GRANT
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1130 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3802 10146 3765 10128 3754 10160 3788 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 231DEG 20KT 3798 10155 3773 10142 

$$

TURNER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
926 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Given radar trends of a strengthening QLCS complex entering the
western zones, and an extremely moist airmass (dewpoints
approaching 70 and PW near 1.5 inch), decided to post a flash
flood watch for the NW zones through 7 AM Saturday. Latest HRRR
drives a large MCS across the CWA overnight, as such, some
flooding is possible south of this watch area. Storms are also
intensifying in SE Colorado, so some severe weather is possible
for the next several hours.

UPDATE Issued at 525 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Updated rainfall/thunderstorm coverage in the grids, along with
QPF/wx/sky grids, to align with radar/satellite trends, the
neighboring WFOs, and the HRRR forecasts through tonight. Radar
trends show strong to severe convection west of Lamar and
approaching Elkhart. In the short term, there will be a limited
threat of severe weather across far SW Kansas, where the
instability axis resides, with ML CAPE near 2000 J/kg. Later
tonight, agree with previous forecaster that another MCS will
track mainly across the northern zones. 18z GFS and HRRR strongly
suggest this evolution, as such increased pops into the
likely/definite category north of Dodge City. Primary threat
through tonight will be excessive rainfall and localized flooding,
with an exceptionally moist atmosphere with precipitable water
ranging from 1.6 inches NW to 1.8 inches SE as of 5 pm mesoanalysis.
Will need to consider a flash flood watch over the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A stronger upper level shortwave trough will move from Four Corners
region and into western Kansas tonight. Another MCS (Mesoscale
Convective Complex) will likely move out of Colorado and and across
much of western Kansas tonight with several upper level waves.
Current models however forecast the best QPF and best heavy rain
chances north of Dodge City with the area from around Syracuse to
near Garden City and LaCrosse and north. Will graduate rainfall
chances with that in mind. Severe chances look minimal tonight with
maybe some small hail and strong winds to 40 to 50 mph. Very heavy
rainfall is expected wherever the MCS tracks with precipitable water
values from 1.5 to near 2 inches. Lows tonight will range in the mid
to upper 60s.

For Saturday, the strong shortwave will continue to move across
western Kansas with an attendant cold front. The cold front is
forecast to be near Hays to Dodge City and Meade by mid afternoon
with the best chances for storms near and east of the front.
Strong to severe storms are possible mainly along and east of the
cold front with 2000 to 3000 J/kg CAPE and strong mid level
shear. Highs will be around 90 east of the front and low to mid
80s west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

For Saturday night, a cold front will continue to move east into
central Kansas with lingering strong to severe thunderstorms mainly
east of Dodge City into parts of south central Kansas.

Then for Sunday into next Friday, a mainly dry period is forecast
with a warming trend. Highs warm from the 80s Sunday and around 90
for Monday, the 4th of July, into the mid to upper 90s from
Tuesday into next Friday, as warmer upper level ridging builds
into the Central Plains. Overnight lows will gradually warm also
from 60s into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Scattered, mainly nocturnal, convection will continue to impact
aviation and be the main challenge in the 00z TAFs. Highest
confidence that convective TEMPO groups will be needed at GCK
later this evening and HYS overnight. Model consensus is for
another MCS complex to track across western Kansas tonight, with
TAF amendments likely. Severe risk will be limited to outflow wind
gusts to near 50 kts. Excessively heavy rain is likely from any
storm, with brief IFR likely. Consensus of short term models
places the lowest (MVFR/IFR) stratus cigs near HYS beginning
around 09z Sat. SE winds will persist outside of convection.
Another brief break of dry weather around 15-18z Sat, before
scattered TSRA redevelop by 21z Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  85  64  82 /  40  50  40  20
GCK  67  83  63  83 /  70  40  40  10
EHA  65  87  63  87 /  60  50  40  10
LBL  70  88  65  85 /  40  50  40  10
HYS  64  79  62  78 /  80  50  50  20
P28  70  91  69  84 /  20  60  70  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ043-
044-061>063-074-075.

&&

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-020900-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
348 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 /248 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN. IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. AS OF NOW,
NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
658 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSZ086-087-020045-
SEWARD KS-MEADE KS-
658 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 658 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES EAST OF HAYNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KISMET...MEADE STATE PARK...HAYNE AND PLAINS.

LAT...LON 3708 10082 3734 10058 3715 10029 3700 10069
      3700 10072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 229DEG 16KT 3708 10072

FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
704 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSZ061-074-075-084-020045-
GRANT KS-HAMILTON KS-MORTON KS-STANTON KS-
704 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MORTON...SOUTH
CENTRAL HAMILTON...CENTRAL STANTON AND NORTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM CDT/645 PM MDT/...

AT 704 PM CDT/604 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF MANTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOHNSON CITY AND MANTER.

LAT...LON 3736 10180 3746 10196 3780 10190 3772 10148
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 204DEG 25KT 3748 10188

FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
918 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSZ061-074-020315-
HAMILTON KS-STANTON KS-
918 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN STANTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT/915 PM MDT/...

AT 917 PM CDT/817 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF TWO BUTTES...OR 20 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF COOLIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
HAMILTON AND NORTHWESTERN STANTON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 10204 3803 10183 3764 10179 3766 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 263DEG 15KT 3778 10218

FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
943 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSZ045-064-020345-
NESS KS-HODGEMAN KS-
943 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NESS AND
NORTHWESTERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 943 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTHEAST OF KALVESTA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN NESS
AND NORTHWESTERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3848 9978 3812 9973 3813 10020 3829 10021
      3832 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 263DEG 14KT 3822 10016

FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1023 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSZ043-063-020415-
FINNEY KS-SCOTT KS-
1023 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FINNEY...
NORTHEASTERN KEARNY AND SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1022 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF SHALLOW WATER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCOTT CITY...MODOC...FRIEND...SHALLOW WATER...GRIGSTON AND MANNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3858 10070 3820 10069 3826 10110 3827 10111
      3827 10112 3850 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 267DEG 32KT 3835 10105

WHITE