Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
418 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Tonight...Shortwave progged to move across our counties this evening
with scattered thunderstorms across southeast Wyoming progged to
move east southeast across the Nebraska panhandle this evening.
Based on the models and the instability axis, best chance of severe
storms will be south of a Douglas to Alliance line this evening and
along and east of I-25.

Thursday...Cooler and a more shower filled day with deep upslope to
700 mb, limiting instability. Expect scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon, and with CAPES only 500 to 1000
J/kg and shear around 40 knots, will have less chance for severe
storms and more producing locally heavy rain due to weaker winds
aloft.

Thursday night...Showers and thunderstorms will take longer to
dissipate with soupy airmass in place as a shortwave approaches from
southwest Wyoming.

Friday...Slow moving shortwave moves overhead, and with a moist
airmass in place from the low to mid levels, at least scattered, and
more likely numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected in
the afternoon east of Interstate 25. Main focus for storms will be
along and east of a Lusk to Kimball line, where low level
convergence will be maximized along a frontal boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Monsoonal fetch of subtropical moisture from the Four Corners
into the central Rockies and High Plains will keep conditions
unsettled Friday night through Sunday, with scattered mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable
water values will range from 0.75 inches west of Laramie Range
to 1.50 inches east Friday night and Saturday, so there is the
potential for locally heavy rainfall with some of the convection.
The severe threat will be low with MUCAPE values 500-1000 j/kg
and shear values less than 30 kt. A shortwave trough will push
across the central and southern Rockies Saturday, and into the
plains Sunday. Models indicate somewhat drier air will return
Sunday through early next week as zonal flow aloft diverts the
subtropical moisture to the south. There will be some instability
though, so cannot discount isolated diurnal convection mainly
over and near the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming. Slightly
below normal temperatures Saturday, moderate to normal Sunday, and
above normal Independence Day through Wednesday. Very warm
temperatures, breezy west to southwest winds and low humidities
will heighten the fire danger over east and south central WY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 414 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR prevails. Isolated thunderstorms early this
evening producing gusty and erratic winds. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms Thursday, especially in the afternoon,
producing localized MVFR.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR prevails. Localized IFR from 09Z to 15Z at
Sidney in fog and low clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
Thursday, especially in the afternoon, producing localized MVFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Minimal concerns based on projected humidities and winds, especially
through Friday with a moist air mass in place.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
929 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-118-119-
301530-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
929 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF PANHANDLE
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM CASPER TO LARAMIE,
INCLUDING DOUGLAS, WHEATLAND, CHEYENNE, LUSK, TORRINGTON,
CHADRON, ALLIANCE, SCOTTSBLUFF, KIMBALL AND SIDNEY.

MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
CARBON COUNTY AND ALBANY COUNTY, INCLUDING LARAMIE, WITH GENERAL
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY INCLUDING
RAWLINS.

AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING, PRODUCING A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ALONG INTERSTATE 25.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
ALONG INTERSTATE 25 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS
MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.

ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA, SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE, PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WIND GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR HIGHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM SOME
OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
MUCH LESS HOWEVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

WYZ103>106-109>117-301530-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
929 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN
WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RUBIN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>