Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
553 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop depicted the shortwave moving ESE
across eastern MT/northeast MT. This wave and upper level jetlet
was providing sufficient lift for scattered active convection
across central/eastern WY and western SD. Areas west of the Front
Range, convection was high based with threat for dry microbursts.
East of the Front Range into the plains, the environment was more
moist and unstable with dew points in the 50s and temperatures in
the 80s and low 90s generating SBCAPES of 1500-2500 j/kg. 0-6km
shear profiles were not as impressive, so main threats for plains
storms will be potential for very large hail and damaging
downburst winds. Convective mode per HRRR has been consistently
discrete cells/small clusters through early evening, then
transitioning to linear/MCS mode mid to late evening over western
NE. Regardless, it'll be a busy afternoon/evening shift.

Convection will develop once again Wednesday afternoon and evening
with the stalled boundary along the Front Range. Not as impressive
environmental parameters as today, but still SBCAPEs ~1000-2000
j/kg and 0-6km shear ~30-40 kt suggest isolated severe threat
east of the I-25 corridor. It will be seasonably warm Wednesday
with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

The upper ridge over the Four Corners will gradually weaken with
swath of monsoonal moisture overspreading the CWA. A potent
shortwave will track southeast into the Upper Midwest, with a
cold front pushing south and west into the CWA Wednesday night.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values are progged to increase to 0.75
to 1.25 inches Thursday with a moist post-frontal east to
southeast flow. Overall severe potential Thursday will be low with
less shear and lower CAPE values, however a few strong storms with
small hail and gusty winds will be possible. The main concern will
be locally heavy rainfall with higher PWATs and slower storm motions.
High temperatures Thursday will fall below seasonal normals with
upper 60s and 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Thursday night/Friday...Isolated to scattered evening showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night will gradually decrease in areal
coverage with the loss of daytime heating. A bit less areal coverage
of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with less
low and mid level moisture and low level winds from the south rather
than from the more upslope easterly direction.

Saturday...Shortwave progged to be east of our counties in the
afternoon with shortwave ridging overhead. With some drying noted in
the low and mid levels and warmer temperatures aloft, only isolated
thunderstorms anticipated.

Sunday...Flow aloft becomes northwest. With relatively warm mid
level temperatures near 16 Celsius acting to limit convective
development, and limited low and mid level moisture, only isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected.

Fourth of July...Heights aloft progged to increase with even more
drying in the low and mid levels, thus thunderstorm chances look
quite meager, so this should be a nice day for outdoor activities
all day long, even in the evening hours.

Tuesday...Heights aloft decrease slightly, though with limited low
and mid level moisture, only isolated thunderstorms at best, are
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 549 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Strong to severe TSRA currently impacting CDR, and BFF and AIA
within the hour. expect mvfr-ifr vis in +RA/SQ with gusts up to 50
KT. TSRA threat for SNY, CYS LAR and RWL more isolated until 03Z.
A repeat of MVFR to local IFR in low cigs and fog will be possible
east of the Laramie Range later tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A potent upper level disturbance interacting with a moist and
unstable environment will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Some of the storms east of the laramie range may
be severe with damaging winds and large hail. isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop
wednesday through saturday...with dry and warm conditions sunday
and independence day.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
152 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-117>119-
292000-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
152 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

WYZ104-105-109>116-292000-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
152 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
616 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     17 WNW HEMINGFORD       42.41N 103.38W
06/28/2016  E60 MPH          BOX BUTTE          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJAMSKI

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
632 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE ALLIANCE           42.06N 102.82W
06/28/2016  M58.00 MPH       BOX BUTTE          NE   ASOS

&&

RUBIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
633 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

NEZ020-021-290115-
MORRILL NE-BANNER NE-
633 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BANNER AND MORRILL
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

AT 633 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ANGORA TO 9 MILES WEST
OF DALTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRIDGEPORT...BAYARD...REDINGTON...THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 385 AND
92...BRIDGEPORT STATE RECREATION AREA...MOOMAWS CORNER...ANGORA...SOUTH
BAYARD JUNCTION...CHIMNEY ROCK STATE PARK...COURT HOUSE AND JAIL ROCKS...
NORTHPORT...THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 385 AND L62 AND BROADWATER.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4145 10337 4193 10335 4190 10268 4176 10267
      4174 10264 4145 10264
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 277DEG 36KT 4193 10317 4138 10316

FINCH