Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Cheyenne, WY

742 
WWUS55 KCYS 270156
SVSCYS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
756 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

NEC013-045-270215-
/O.CON.KCYS.SV.W.0107.000000T0000Z-160727T0215Z/
DAWES NE-BOX BUTTE NE-
756 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAWES AND NORTHEASTERN BOX BUTTE COUNTIES...

AT 756 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND ANTELOPE ROAD...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF
HAY SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN DAWES AND NORTHEASTERN BOX BUTTE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4260 10311 4260 10292 4271 10291 4271 10277
      4245 10277 4244 10275 4228 10275 4252 10312
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 314DEG 21KT 4248 10270 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

HAMMER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
536 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 434 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Widely scattered showers and storms have developed across the
forecast area. A dry boundary layer out west, and sfc boundary
interactions across the Cheyenne Ridge and southern counties
within a marginally unstable environment have produced a couple
strong/severe storms. Main threats are strong winds (especially
out west), and large hail and heavy rain (out east). Expect this
trend to continue through the evening as shortwave energy moves
overhead and potential instability is realized.

Increasing northwest flow and shortwave energy will be overhead
tomorrow. The main cold front looks to move slowly south through
our counties later tonight, likely bringing stratus and perhaps
light rain or drizzle to the plans by early tomorrow morning. The
coverage of stratus will certainly depend on how fast the front
moves, and models don't have it clearing our counties until after
midnight likely due to current thunderstorm activity. Upslope flow
and deeper moisture will increase the possibility for a broader
coverage of storms than today, with higher shear equating to a
better chance for severe as well. However, much depends on how
fast the stratus breaks in the morning. Thursday looks very
similar except that the post frontal environment will have
modified some, with models painting higher instability across the
forecast area overall. Shear still looks very favorable for
severe potential, maybe even more so than Wednesday, so expected
another round of scattered thunderstorms with potential for severe
weather in the afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 434 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Upper high pressure area centered across the southwest CONUS early
in the period will slide east into the central plains by early
next week. This pattern shift will turn northwest flow late this
week, to southwesterly by early next week. Upslope flow along with
a weakly unstable environment will give eastern plains a slight
chance for thunderstorms on Friday. Coverage will be limited and
best organization will be confined to the western Nebraska
panhandle. Upper high pressure will shift east into the southern
Rockies on Saturday, turning flow anticyclonic. Saturday looks dry
with subsidence inhibiting convective development. Flow backs to
southwesterly Sunday-Tuesday bringing with it a return to typical
afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will warm
thru the period with highs in the 80s on Friday climbing back
into the 90s for elevations below 5000 feet Sunday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue for much of the
forecast area through the evening. Brief MVFR vsbys are possible
in a few heavier storms near KBFF and KCYS through 01Z. A cold
front dropping south across the plains tonight will bring
northeast winds, and the possibility of low stratus and perhaps
light rain to the plains. Expecting mainly IFR/MVFR conditions in
stratus, particularly along/east of I-25 north of the I-80
corridor. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected
tomorrow afternoon and evening, first starting over the mountains
then spreading east across the plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 434 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Breezy winds and dry humidities will continue this afternoon west
Laramie Range, although isolated showers and t-storms are
occurring over this area which should help to cool and moisten the
boundary layer somewhat. Gusty and erratic winds are possible with
this activity. Moist upslope flow across the plains will keep fire
weather issues minimal. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
producing wetting rains are developing across the Cheyenne Ridge
this afternoon, and should expand eastward as well through the
evening. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase over
the next few days through Friday, along with higher relative
humidities.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
424 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

WYZ101>119-271215-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
424 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-271215-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
424 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND CONTAIN
HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             1 E MORRILL             41.96N 103.90W
07/26/2016  E1.25 INCH       SCOTTS BLUFF       NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR IN SIZE.

&&

BCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
542 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             MORRILL                 41.96N 103.92W
07/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       SCOTTS BLUFF       NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
651 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NE CHADRON            42.92N 102.87W
07/26/2016  E60 MPH          DAWES              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATES 50-60 MPH

&&

BCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
657 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             4 W CHADRON             42.83N 103.08W
07/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       DAWES              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
723 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             5 E CHADRON             42.83N 102.90W
07/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       DAWES              NE   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY MARBLE SIZED WITH SOME GOLF BALLS. WINDS ESTIMATED
            AT 60+ MPH.

&&

BCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
728 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SE CHADRON           42.72N 102.86W
07/26/2016  E60 MPH          DAWES              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SAID THAT WINDS WERE 60+ MPH. HAD NOT SEEN ANY DAMAGE
            YET.

&&

BCHAPMAN