Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
407 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough will drift slowly east across the state today,
supporting mainly scattered showers and thunderstorm into this
evening...mainly across the eastern half of Pennsylvania.

A ridge of high pressure at the sfc and aloft will build over the
commonwealth Tuesday through Thursday, accompanied by warm and
mainly dry weather. The surge of warm air will peak late in the
week ahead of a strong cold front. Ensemble model guidance shows
high confidence for cooler and drier air could moving in for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop the region into Early eyeing in ten warm and humid
airmass in place. Also helping to force convection is shortwave
trof moving east across into northern New England.

Stationary front along the PA/MD bordering helping to focus
strongest activity early should remain stalled in the region over
night.

Min temps Tuesday morning should be a bit cooler than this am, as
some drier/cooler air seeps in from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure building over the region at the surface and aloft
will bring partly cloudy but dry conditions for tonight and
Tuesday...with still moderately high dewpoints ranging from the
upper 50s NW to mid and upper 60s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest runs of the operational models and ensemble means show
similar ideas for the large scale pattern through the period.
Compact shortwave system tracking east along the Canadian border
will suppress near-to-above average heights and eventually carve
out an upper level trough over eastern Canada and the Northeast
U.S. by the weekend. This system will also send a cold front
through the area Fri-Sat which will ultimately be the main focus
for convective rainfall during the period.

High pressure departing the New England coastal region should keep
a mainly dry pattern in place through midweek with isolated Tstorm
chances /20-30 POPs/ confined primarily along and west of the
Alleghenies near intersection of return-flow moisture/warm front
and terrain-induced lift.

Thunderstorms along and ahead of cold front progressing into the
area later Friday into Saturday may be on the strong side. Will
need to monitor SPC convective outlooks in the coming days for
more details. Current fropa timing in GFS/EC/CMC suggests central
PA may be in a somewhat of a void in storm coverage Friday night
into early Saturday, with the main convective risks focused more
over far northwestern and southeastern PA. This may change so stay
tuned. Behind the front, confidence is growing in an unseasonably
dry airmass pouring into the area with PWs dropping below normal
by early next week. This should also translate into lower and more
comfortable humidity along with cooler nighttime lows.

With an overall pattern that is fairly typical for August,
temperatures will likely be within 10F of climate normals. The
warmest days of the period will be Friday and Saturday. Heat
indices do not appear to be an issue with max values peaking in
the lower to mid 90s Friday/Saturday afternoon across the lower
Susq. Valley. Storms and frontal timing may impact max HX values.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop the region into early eyeing in the warm and humid
airmass in place to the north of a stationary front along the
PA/MD border.

Most airfields will remain VFR through the evening unless
impacted by the storms. Exception will be over the lower
susq/KMDT and KLNS/ where lowered vsbys in haze will keep MVFR
conds in addition to the showers and thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...Am fog possible, mainly KBFD.

WED-THU...Patchy fog possible around dawn.

FRI...Isold pm tsra impacts possible western PA.

SAT...Psbl cold fropa with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
For Williamsport.

July 2016 had a mean temperature of 76.8 degrees. This is the
8th warmest on record. This average temperature was warmer than
the 76.6 degrees set in July 1993. July 2011 and 2012 were also
in the top 10th warmest. There was 9 days with thunder in July.
There was 14 days at 90 degrees or higher.

For Harrisburg.

July 2016 had a mean temperature of 79.4 degrees. This is the
5th warmest on record. This average temperature was warmer than
the 79.3 degrees set in July 2012. July 2010 and 2011 were also
in the top 10th warmest. There was 8 days with thunder in July.
There was 15 days at 90 degrees or higher.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gartner
NEAR TERM...Gartner
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Gartner
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Gartner/Martin
CLIMATE...Martin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
403 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-020815-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
403 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
332 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

PAZ019-027-028-050-012000-
MIFFLIN PA-JUNIATA PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SNYDER PA-
332 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SNYDER...CENTRE...
JUNIATA...AND MIFFLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 332 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
REEDS GAP STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEWISTOWN...BELLTOWN...MCCLURE...MILROY...REEDSVILLE...
POE VALLEY STATE PARK...YEAGERTOWN...JUNIATA TERRACE...ALFARATA...
REEDS GAP STATE PARK...BEAVER SPRINGS...HIGHLAND PARK...
SEVEN MOUNTAINS...BURNHAM...MAITLAND...WAGNER AND SIGLERVILLE.

LAT...LON 4071 7767 4085 7752 4075 7719 4054 7755
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 309DEG 13KT 4073 7752

RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
336 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

PAZ057-065-012000-
DAUPHIN PA-YORK PA-
336 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF YORK AND DAUPHIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 335 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PAXTANG...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. MINOR
FLOODING MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HERSHEY...STEELTON...COLONIAL PARK...MIDDLETOWN...HARRISBURG...
HUMMELSTOWN...PROGRESS...VALLEY GREEN...RUTHERFORD...ROYALTON...
BRESSLER-ENHAUT-OBERLIN...LAWNTON...PENBROOK...PAXTANG...HIGHSPIRE...
THREE MILE ISLAND...LEWISBERRY...CAPITAL CITY AIRPORT...
GOLDSBORO AND HERSHEY PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MINOR FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER COVERING THE
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4018 7692 4020 7692 4020 7693 4021 7690
      4022 7690 4021 7689 4022 7686 4028 7691
      4035 7663 4020 7657 4019 7660 4015 7668
      4015 7669 4016 7669 4015 7670 4013 7688
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 280DEG 9KT 4026 7682

RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

PAZ027-028-050-012030-
MIFFLIN PA-JUNIATA PA-SNYDER PA-
359 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SNYDER...JUNIATA...AND
MIFFLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 359 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BELLTOWN TO HIGHLAND PARK. MOVEMENT WAS EAST
AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEWISTOWN...WALNUT...MCALISTERVILLE...MCCLURE...SPRUCE HILL...
YEAGERTOWN...JUNIATA TERRACE...MEXICO...RICHFIELD...ALFARATA...
HIGHLAND PARK...BURNHAM...MAITLAND...WAGNER...EAST SALEM...
MIFFLINTOWN...THOMPSONTOWN...PORT ROYAL AND MIFFLIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MINOR FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER COVERING THE
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 7766 4074 7734 4069 7704 4065 7694
      4063 7695 4061 7700 4058 7718 4056 7717
      4051 7730 4045 7745
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 283DEG 22KT 4067 7740 4061 7758

JUNG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

PAZ065-012030-
YORK PA-
408 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF YORK COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM EDT...

AT 407 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DOVER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. MINOR
FLOODING MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEIGELSTOWN...YORK...WEST YORK...EAST YORK...DOVER...SHILOH...
SPRING GROVE...GRANTLEY...YORK AIRPORT...EMIGSVILLE...NORTH YORK...
NEW SALEM...YORK COLLEGE OF PENNSYLVANIA...PENN STATE YORK...
TYLER RUN-QUEENS GATE AND STONYBROOK-WILSHIRE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MINOR FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER COVERING THE
ROADWAY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 7695 4008 7684 3997 7664 3984 7685
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 310DEG 7KT 4000 7686

RXR