Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
751 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The deep moisture is now to our east and the slow drying out will
continue for the next few days as a week 500 mb trough works its
way over the western Atlantic ridge. Another ridge develops to
our west this week and warm weather will return around midweek.
The surge of warm air will peak late in the week ahead of a strong
cold front. The 52 member NAEFS implies much cooler and drier air
could move over our region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
Mostly garden variety showers and isolated storms to deal with
this evening...with the exception of one long lived cell which has
produced wind damage over Clinton County and continues to display
decent hail signature as it tracks into Union County at mid
evening.

HRRRV2 handling convection well...having indicated increased
chance of shower and thunderstorms along and north of a line from
Bradford to Williamsport this evening. Expect dissipation of all
activity after sunset with most areas rainfree after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Very low POPS overnight Monday into Monday morning. Some spotty
areas of patchy fog and hazy. Pesky high dew points in the
east/southeast persist still. Hard to get below 70 when dew points
are in the 70s in southeast.

Temperatures close to normal and overall moisture as PW values
continue to drop. The GFS/GEFS/SREF all show higher PW air to east
and some instability. Thus cannot rule out the chance of showers
and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tried to show highest probabilities mainly to east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main upper level trough axis slowly moves to the East Coast. Closer
to the backside of this trough with cyclonic flow an isolated
shower is possible over our eastern most counties with some
afternoon instability. A strong ridge over the Great Lakes with
dry northwest flow into PA and cooler air with building high
pressure at the surface will lead to mostly sunny skies across the
rest of PA. Temps will be seasonable in the 80s.

A Short-wave tries to move through the upper level ridge Wednesday
with just a isolated convection possible most likely over the
Laurel Mountains. Temps will be a tad warmer under mostly sunny
skies again. Still under the ridge for Thursday but increasing
instability and diffluent flow aloft may lead to isolated
afternoon or evening convection again favoring development over
the mountains but across a braoder region. In general the models
have been over-estimating POPs and precipitation in this typical
summer pattern.

With temps rising each day, Friday looks to be the warmest day of
the week reaching up into the low 90s in some areas through the
Susquehanna Valley. Heat and increasing humidity are expected to
fuel thunderstorms by late in the day in advance of a cold front
which will move southeast across the region Friday night. Models
try to push this front south into VA. With the front near the
Mason-Dixon line Saturday morning there will linger the chance for
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Northern and central PA will
certainly see noticeably drier cooler air Saturday and eventually
this should make it south into the lower Susquehanna Valley as
well. Saturday night will be markedly cooler across central PA.

GFS and ECMWF diverge on solutions for the second half of the
weekend. ECMWF has a dry sunny seasonable day on Sunday across PA.
The GFS on the other hand tries to bring precip back into
northern PA Saturday night but it looks suspecious at this point.
Will wait to see if this continues with later model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Regional radar at 21Z showing widely sct shra/tsra developing
across central Pa ahead of low pressure trough over the Grt Lks.
Although KBFD is the only airfield to have been affected so far, latest
model data supports the chance of a brief vis-reducing shra/tsra
thru this evening across most of central Pa. Based on output from
the latest SPC SSEO, the region least susceptible appears to be
around KMDT/KLNS.

Sct shra/tsra should diminish toward midnight, as blyr cools and
stabilizes. Focus then shifts toward potential of late night fog.
In general, the best chance of sig vis reductions, based on
SREF/downscaled NAM, will be across nw mtns in vicinity of KBFD.
However, any location that receives rainfall this evening will be
susceptible to sig vis reductions from fog late tonight.

Patchy am fog should burn off by 14-16Z Monday. Another trough of
low pressure will swing down from the Grt Lks Monday aftn,
producing another round of sct shra/tsra during the aftn/evening,
causing a brief vis reduction in spots.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...Am fog possible.

WED...No sig wx expected.

THU...Isold pm tsra impacts possible western Pa.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Grumm
NEAR TERM...Grumm/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...Grumm/Fitzgerald

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
452 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-010900-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
452 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
833 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HYNER                   41.30N  77.67W
07/31/2016                   CLINTON            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601777

KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
838 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

PAZ051-052-010115-
MONTOUR PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-
838 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHUMBERLAND AND
MONTOUR COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 838 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MONTANDON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUNBURY...NORTHUMBERLAND...MILTON...DANVILLE...STONINGTON...
RIVERSIDE...MONTANDON...TREVORTON...MOORESBURG...SNYDERTOWN...
SEVEN POINTS...LEWISBURG...NEW COLUMBIA AND MECHANICSVILLE.

LAT...LON 4076 7664 4082 7684 4085 7681 4088 7680
      4089 7683 4092 7686 4095 7688 4098 7688
      4099 7687 4105 7686 4102 7656 4100 7656
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 285DEG 13KT 4095 7685

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
847 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             CARROLL                 41.06N  77.23W
07/31/2016  M1.00 INCH       CLINTON            PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601778

KF

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