Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

374 
WWUS54 KCRP 312213
SVSCRP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
513 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXC283-312221-
/O.CAN.KCRP.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-160531T2230Z/
LA SALLE TX-
513 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN LA SALLE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 2838 9933 2854 9929 2863 9892 2826 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 261DEG 13KT 2848 9910 

$$

TE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
420 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...Convective chances
continue to be primary forecast challenge. Combination of an
extremely moist/unstable and a H5 s/w trough advecting across the
N CWA and EWX CWA has led to scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon across the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country
/core of storms is along deep layer moisture axis/. These storms
should continue for a few more hours before loss of diurnal
warming kicks in...though an increase in H25 difluence this
evening/overnight may result in continued thunderstorm
development. Am not overly confident on timing/placement of
greatest POPs tonight. Aforementioned difluence is prog to be
greatest overnight across the Brush Country...and as such I have
the highest POPs there. Farther east closer to the
coast...marginal thermal inversion may limit convective
development...but will still carry low chance POPs. Forecast for
Wednesday is also tricky. Convection across Coahuila MX this
afternoon may shift east across the Brush Country overnight before
weakening late night into Wed morning. If this occurs...then much
of the atmosphere may be worked over and much of Wed may remain
dry. Guidance also brings some drier air in the H9 to H7 layer on
Wed...which may also temper convective potential.
Regardless...given upper level dynamics and climatology...will
still carry chance POPs areawide on Wed. More significant precip
event is expected to develop from W to E Wed night into Thursday
as parent Mid/Upper level low starts to kick east out of SW CONUS.
Heavy rainfall will be possible with convection through the short
term period...with more significant flooding possible heading into
Wed night and Thursday. After collaboration with surrounding
WFOs/WPC/SRH...have decided to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch
issuance until midnight shift tonight. However...will monitor
afternoon convective trends for possible earlier issuance.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...The mid to upper level low
will be over southwest Texas Thursday morning and move slowly
eastward into central Texas by Friday afternoon. Better low level
inflow of moisture will be available on Thursday with deep
atmospheric moisture in place over south Texas with precipitable
water values near or slightly above 2 inches. Favorable upper level
difluence will be over much of south Texas on Thursday for a strong
potential for locally heavy rainfall and higher threat for flash
flooding. Low level convergence in advance of a frontal boundary
over the coastal plains will keep threat of heavy rain over this
area Friday night into Saturday. The boundary should move into the
coastal waters by Saturday night with better rain chances moving to
the east. The upper low will drift to the south into the region for
Saturday but slowly weaken over the weekend. Low may become a mid
level shear axis by Monday but GFS and ECMWF are different with the
placement of the axis with ECMWF more inland. Will hold on to chance
POPs over the coastal plains and coastal waters for Monday then
reduce them to just slight chance POPs over the coastal plains for
diurnal convection Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  89  76  84  72  /  20  30  50  70  60
Victoria          74  88  72  84  70  /  20  40  50  70  70
Laredo            77  93  73  86  71  /  50  30  70  60  50
Alice             74  90  74  85  71  /  30  30  60  70  60
Rockport          79  88  78  83  74  /  10  30  40  70  60
Cotulla           75  90  72  84  68  /  60  40  70  70  50
Kingsville        76  91  75  85  71  /  20  30  50  70  60
Navy Corpus       79  88  78  83  75  /  20  30  40  60  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
548 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-011100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O\CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
548 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING WILL OCCUR. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT. THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
303 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ230-312030-
MCMULLEN-
303 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MCMULLEN COUNTY...

AT 302 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF
LOMA ALTA...OR 21 MILES NORTH OF FREER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MCMULLEN COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2824 9846 2810 9870 2819 9880 2828 9880
      2841 9861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 231DEG 14KT 2818 9871

HART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
329 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ230-312115-
MCMULLEN-
329 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MCMULLEN COUNTY...

AT 328 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LOMA ALTA...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TILDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL MCMULLEN
COUNTY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2813 9863 2828 9877 2849 9851 2827 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 234DEG 18KT 2825 9865

HEAVENER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
415 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             12 S TILDEN             28.29N 98.58W
05/31/2016  E1.00 INCH       MCMULLEN           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED WEST OF HWY 16 NEAR THE NUECES
            RIVER

&&

HART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
419 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ241>243-312200-
NUECES-KLEBERG-JIM WELLS-
419 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NUECES...CENTRAL
JIM WELLS AND NORTHWESTERN KLEBERG COUNTIES...

AT 418 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF BEN
BOLT...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALICE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALICE...DRISCOLL...BANQUETE AND AGUA DULCE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2755 9799 2770 9810 2790 9784 2767 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 227DEG 18KT 2766 9796

HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
433 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ229-312230-
LA SALLE-
433 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LA SALLE
COUNTY...

AT 432 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED OVER COTULLA...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COTULLA...GARDENDALE...LOS ANGELES...MILLETT...MILLET...FOWLERTON AND
WOODWARD.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2839 9937 2861 9937 2864 9880 2813 9882
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 288DEG 49KT 2846 9920

TE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
442 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ241-243-312245-
NUECES-JIM WELLS-
442 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NUECES AND NORTHERN
JIM WELLS COUNTIES...

AT 442 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ALFRED...OR 9
MILES NORTH OF ALICE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORANGE GROVE...BLUNTZER...ALFRED...SANDIA...WESTDALE...TECALOTE...LAKE
ALICE AND PERNITAS POINT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2789 9819 2806 9801 2806 9790 2796 9781
      2794 9781 2794 9779 2790 9775 2776 9802
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 229DEG 12KT 2788 9802

TE