Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
459 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...Significant heavy rainfall
continues early this morning along portions of the Coastal Bend.
Abundant tropical moisture along with a slow moving upper lvl
shortwave trough and surface coastal trough have converged to
produce multiple rounds of showers and storms training across this
region. PWAT values remain near 2 standard deviations above
normal. The tremendous amount of heavy rainfall that occurred
yesterday and overnight has produced flash flooding across many
locations, and the threat for additional flooding continues
through this morning. Main focus of heaviest rainfall is very
slowly shifting east and offshore this morning as upper shortwave
gradually moves further east. As upper trough moves further east
PoPs will decrease west to east today. Dry conditions will develop
overnight tonight with lower PWAT values. However, upper lvl low
will dig into the southwest CONUS on Tuesday. PWAT values will
increase during the day Tuesday and disturbances coming off upper
low will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the day on Tuesday.

Onshore flow across the Gulf waters will increase late this
morning and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the late
morning and early afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer today and
Tuesday, though timing of rain ending today could throw max
values off. Lower temperatures will remain over the coast and
Victoria Crossroads where rain will persist the longest.

&&

.Long Term (Tuesday night through Monday)...
We weighed the long term period heavily on our SuperBlend of
guidance. That being said, increasing upper forcing associated
with an upper disturbance moving slowly across the SW CONUS
Wednesday/Thursday should combine with copious moisture and a
frontal boundary approaching the CWA/MSA from the north (in
response to an upper disturbance to move acrs the Northern
Plains/Midwest) to generate at least scattered convection
Wednesday/Thursday. SPC has our area in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms on Wednesday. Afterward, the ECMWF predicts the
foregoing upper system to move east while another upper
disturbance digs into the WRN CONUS resulting in an upper ridge
over the CWA/MSA Saturday/Sunday. Thus, only anticipate isolated
convection as a compromise between lingering moisture and upper
ridging.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  90  75  87  74  /  20  20  40  40  50
Victoria          72  87  71  86  71  /  20  30  40  50  50
Laredo            74  96  73  91  72  /  10  20  50  50  60
Alice             73  92  74  88  72  /  10  20  40  40  50
Rockport          77  87  76  84  75  /  20  20  30  40  50
Cotulla           72  93  71  86  70  /  10  30  60  50  60
Kingsville        74  92  75  88  73  /  10  20  40  40  50
Navy Corpus       77  86  77  83  75  /  20  20  30  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM CDT this morning For the following
     zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces...Refugio...San
     Patricio...Victoria.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this
     afternoon For the following zones: Coastal waters from
     Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters
     from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
     from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
     NM.

&&

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GH/77/WC/87...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
554 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

TXZ229>234-239>247-171100-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
554 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CDT ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...DECREASING IN
COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTH TEXAS IN A SLIGHT AND
ENHANCED RISK ON TUESDAY AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-171100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O\CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
554 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 4 PM
CDT THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
146 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

TXZ243-160745-
NUECES-
146 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NUECES COUNTY...

AT 146 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WALDRON FIELD...
OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORPUS CHRISTI...MUSTANG ISLAND STATE PARK...PADRE ISLES COUNTRY CLUB...
FLOUR BLUFF...PADRE BALLI PARK...WALDRON FIELD AND CC NAS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2764 9737 2779 9716 2766 9707 2760 9712
      2755 9723 2756 9723 2758 9725 2757 9726
      2756 9725 2755 9727 2754 9727 2753 9729
TIME...MOT...LOC 0646Z 237DEG 10KT 2761 9728

HEAVENER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
245 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE CORPUS CHRISTI    27.74N 97.41W
05/16/2016                   NUECES             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER OVER THE ROOFS OF CARS ON KOSTROYZ.

0227 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CORPUS CHRISTI          27.75N 97.42W
05/16/2016                   NUECES             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES ACTIVELY TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
            CITY. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

HEAVENER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
306 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ARANSAS PASS            27.90N 97.15W
05/16/2016                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PARTS OF FM 1069 NEAR ARANSAS PASS ARE UNDER WATER.

&&

HEAVENER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCKPORT                28.04N 97.05W
05/16/2016                   ARANSAS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS IN SOUTH ROCKPORT ARE UNDER WATER.

0327 AM     FLASH FLOOD      INGLESIDE               27.88N 97.21W
05/16/2016                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            INGLESIDE FIRE DEPT IS RESCUING RESIDENTS FROM THEIR
            HOMES ON 4TH STREET. WATER IS INTO THEIR HOMES.

&&

HEAVENER