Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
953 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...Conditions will be ripe through Monday morning for
heavy rain and flash flooding for portions of the CWA. A potent
shortwave trough axis moving through SW TX and the Coahuila MX rgn
is expected to affect the CWA from around midnight through late
morning on Monday. A nearly solid line of storms along with
impressive cloud tops has been observed over the past few hours
with this shortwave trough axis. Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary
frontal boundary remains across the CWA along and just south of a
line from VCT to COT. Little movement of this boundary is expected
tonight. A secondary boundary will likely develop along the coast
as continuous moisture convergence enhances frontogenesis in this
zone. Unfortunately, this is the same area that received 3 to 6
inches of rain today. So with nearly 2 inch PWATS remaining in place
along with these other favorable factors, the possibility of
several rounds of showers and storms will exist through Monday
morning. As a result, will issue a Flash Flood Watch for the
entire coastline including Victoria county. Expect an additional 2
to 3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts.

The progressive nature of the shortwave will greatly diminish rain
chances from west to east by late Monday morning. This has been
depicted quite well by the CAM and synoptic-scale guidance for
awhile now. As a result, will bump up pops through Monday morning
and diminish them greatly after 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...An increasing gradient due to the shortwave will result
in marginal SCA conditions for the nearshore and offshore waters
during the mid-morning to mid-afternoon timeframe on Monday.
Sufficient low level directional shear will maintain a threat for
waterspout development through Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  85  76  87  75  /  70  60  10  20  30
Victoria          69  82  73  86  71  /  70  70  20  30  40
Laredo            71  93  75  98  74  /  40  20  10  20  40
Alice             71  87  74  92  74  /  60  50  10  20  40
Rockport          72  81  76  84  75  /  70  70  20  20  30
Cotulla           69  89  72  93  71  /  70  30  10  30  50
Kingsville        72  87  75  91  75  /  60  60  10  20  30
Navy Corpus       73  82  77  83  76  /  70  70  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Monday through Monday morning
     For the following zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...
     Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CDT Monday For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

MB/80...SHORT TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
550 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

TXZ229>234-239>247-161100-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
550 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTH
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY AND A SLIGHT
RISK ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-161100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O\CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
550 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ONSHORE WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY...MOSTLY ACROSS OUR OUTER GULF WATERS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTH
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY AND A SLIGHT
RISK ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GH/TE