Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
328 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure
will follow with a drier and cooler air mass Tuesday. The next
cold front will cross northern New England Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The severe weather threat continues into this evening with very
strong shear ahead of a vigorous upper level trough. The entire
forecast area remains in a severe thunderstorm watch into this
evening. Supercells have formed and are currently moving towards
southern Penobscot to include Bangor. Damaging winds, large hail
and even a tornado are possible in this very favorable convective
environment. While Bangor is under gun in the near term, the
entire forecast area is vulnerable into this evening. The
severity of the storms will likely weaken right along the coast
as they hit the marine environment.

For this evening...the severe weather threat will wind down with
clearing skies and cooler temperatures. Lows will drop to the
upper 40s to lower 50s in northern Aroostook, but will only drop
to the lower 60s for Bangor and Down East. Fog will reform this
evening near the coast ahead of the front but will dissipate later
in the night. High pressure builds Tuesday with very gusty west to
northwest winds. These winds will gust up to 30 mph, especially in
northern zones. Downsloping for Bangor and Down East will yield
mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s. Towards northern
Aroostook, more widespread cumulus is expected with highs in the
mid to upper 60s.  Humidity will be quite low on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Hipres wl be building south of New England Tue night with WNW flow
contg to pump cool and dry air into CWA. Mins by Wed morning wl lkly
dip into the 40s acrs the north. Cld cvr wl gradually diminish
ovrngt and with dry dwpts do not expect fog to be a concern.

Wed wl feature a warmer day with highs in Downeast zones arnd 80F
and acrs the north in the m70s. Expect skies to cld up drg the day
in cyclonic flow aloft as wk s/wv slides thru. Thur wl feature warm
advection on swrly flow as wm frnt lifts into ern Canada. Expect
isold showers acrs the north in the mrng with showers/tstms in the
aftn in destabilizing airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper trough over the region with several shortwaves moving
across the CWA will allow for some occasional showers and storms
over the CWA Thu night through the weekend. The most likely time
for showers and storms is to be ahead of and with the front
expected to pass over the weekend, but at this point, timing of
the front appears a bit uncertain, varying between Fri night and
Sat night. Temps look to be above normal early in the period, with
a gradual downward trend over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Strong thunderstorms with hail, wind gusts to 60-70 mph
and the threat of tornadoes will cross the area this afternoon and
evening. Tops to nearly FL400 are possible. Outside of these
thunderstorms, it will be VFR except a brief period of MVFR cigs
early Tuesday morning. West to northwest wind gusts may reach up
to 30 mph Tuesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: VFR expected Tue afternoon into Thur afternoon.
MVFR Restrictions expected in showers and storms through the end
of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: South swell around two feet is expected through the
period. Winds will increase this afternoon ahead of a cold front
to as much as 20 knots, but little gustiness is expected. Fog will
finally move out later tonight into Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through
the end of the week with seas increasing in srly swell Friday
afternoon ahead of next system.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...MCW/Farrar
Marine...MCW/Farrar

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1113 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-191515-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
1113 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE...EAST
CENTRAL MAINE...EASTERN MAINE...FAR NORTHERN MAINE...INTERIOR
DOWNEAST MAINE...NORTH CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE AND WEST
CENTRAL MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ050>052-191515-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT, ME TO SCHOODIC POINT, ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT, ME TO STONINGTON, ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRA COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT, ME TO STONINGTON, ME-
1113 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
354 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SANGERVILLE             45.16N 69.36W
07/18/2016                   PISCATAQUIS        ME   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN SANGERVILLE.

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GUILFORD                45.17N 69.39W
07/18/2016                   PISCATAQUIS        ME   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN GUILFORD.

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ABBOT                   45.19N 69.45W
07/18/2016                   PISCATAQUIS        ME   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE IN ABBOT.

&&

NWS CARIBOU ME
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EXETER                  44.97N 69.14W
07/18/2016                   PENOBSCOT          ME   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO TREES DOWN, INCL A 60-FOOT MAPLE.

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DOVER-FOXCROFT          45.19N 69.23W
07/18/2016                   PISCATAQUIS        ME   AMATEUR RADIO

            A DOZEN TREES REPORTED DOWN IN
            DOVER-FOXCROFT.

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW DOVER-FOXCROFT    45.17N 69.26W
07/18/2016                   PISCATAQUIS        ME   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EMA REPORTS DOZENS OF TREES DOWN IN
            DOVER-FOXCROFT AND EAST SANGERVILLE.

&&

NWS CARIBOU ME
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
405 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             OLD TOWN                44.93N 68.65W
07/18/2016  U0.25 INCH       PENOBSCOT          ME   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

FMK