Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
634 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level trough crossing the Great Lakes region continues
moving east and should reach the Atlantic coast on Tuesday.
A series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough
and a moist air mass will continue scattered to numerous
thunderstorms over the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Weak surface trough appears to be stretched from E NC WSW across
portions of N and CENT SC and into NE GA, with an upper level
impulse moving slowly SE into the region. Convection developing
and increasing in coverage across the northern CSRA, and shifting
to the ESE. Additional convection shifting NE from Cent/SE GA NE
towards the CSRA/S Midlands. Collision of outflow boundaries and
sea breeze boundary expected to lead to increased convective
coverage in the near term across the CSRA, and Central/Southern
Midlands. It appears good chance to likely POPs in order for that
area. Elsewhere, thunderstorm activty across the NE Midlands
dissipating and shifting to the north into NC. Latest convective
analysis indicates moderate to strong instabilities, with high
atmospheric moisture content with precipitable water values over 2
inches. Some of the storms could reach severe limits, with
possiblity of locally heavy rain with any slow moving or training
echoes. Will expect the activity to gradually dissipate tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level flow will become northwesterly Tuesday as the upper
trough moves off the East Coast. The associated frontal boundary
will push into the forecast area in the late afternoon/evening
accompanied by a 500 mb shortwave. Abundant moisture ahead of the
front and weak to moderate instability will support afternoon
airmass convection with the greatest coverage near and east of I-20
where PWAT values are above 2.0 inches. Later, as the surface
boundary and shortwave move into the FA, there may be additional
convection progressing eastward from the Upstate. There is a
possibility for a few storms to produce damaging winds and
localized flooding. The front will stall across the forecast area
overnight becoming diffuse. Highs will generally be in the low to
mid 90s with an overnight low in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper level pattern will transition from troughing to ridging
mid-week as high pressure extends westward from the central US. At
the surface, a weak boundary will linger throughout the midterm
keeping a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each
day. However minimal upper level support suggests mainly weak,
diurnal convection. Westerly flow and a building upper level ridge
supports warming temperatures into the weekend.

Early next week, models indicate the possibility of an upper level
trough and associated surface front digging into the mid-Atlantic
States.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main near term concern is any thunderstorm activity. Based on
latest radar trends, have increased confidence of TSRA affecting
CAE/CUB and AGS/DNL terminals in the near term. Added a tempo
group for such through 01Z.

After convection dissipates tonight, will examine whether
lingering convective debris cloud cover will preclude a fog
threat. For now, will include tempo group 09z-13z for the fog
prone sites AGS/OGB. If any terminals receive significant rainfall
later today/tonight, fog/stratus threat could increase. After any
early morning fog/stratus, expect a VFR conditions Tuesday with
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered diurnal thunderstorms. Some
possibilities of late night/early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
616 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-021030-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
616 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1028 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE COLUMBIA           33.99N 81.02W
08/01/2016  M2.91 INCH       RICHLAND           SC   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            NWS RAIN GAGE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF SC NEAR
            BULL AND WHALEY ST MEASURED 2.91 INCHES OF
            RAIN, MOST OF WHICH FELL IN ABOUT ONE HOUR
            FROM ABOUT 8PM-9PM.

&&

DCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1030 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WNW ARCADIA LAKES     34.06N 81.00W
08/01/2016                   RICHLAND           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED IN NORTH COLUMBIA AT
            FONTAINE AT FARROW RD BY SCHP.

&&

DCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N COLUMBIA            34.03N 81.04W
08/01/2016                   RICHLAND           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED IN NORTH COLUMBIA AT I-277
            AND SUNSET BY SCHP.

&&

DCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1035 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HAIL             1 SE FOREST ACRES       34.02N 80.97W
08/01/2016  E0.75 INCH       RICHLAND           SC   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT TRENHOLM PLAZA.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE FOREST ACRES      33.96N 80.94W
08/01/2016                   RICHLAND           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ON GARNERS FERRY RD, COLONIAL VILLA
            DRIVE AND FOUNTAIN LAKE RD.

&&

DA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

SCZ016-020330-
CHESTERFIELD-
1042 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHESTERFIELD COUNTY...

AT 1041 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PAGELAND...OR 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARTSVILLE. THE STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAGELAND...JEFFERSON...RUBY...PATRICK AND MOUNT CROGHAN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3458 8000 3449 8030 3469 8046 3481 8036
      3481 8025
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 229DEG 1KT 3465 8031

JAQ