Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
634 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level trough crossing the Great Lakes region continues
moving east and should reach the Atlantic coast on Tuesday.
A series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough
and a moist air mass will continue scattered to numerous
thunderstorms over the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Weak surface trough appears to be stretched from E NC WSW across
portions of N and CENT SC and into NE GA, with an upper level
impulse moving slowly SE into the region. Convection developing
and increasing in coverage across the northern CSRA, and shifting
to the ESE. Additional convection shifting NE from Cent/SE GA NE
towards the CSRA/S Midlands. Collision of outflow boundaries and
sea breeze boundary expected to lead to increased convective
coverage in the near term across the CSRA, and Central/Southern
Midlands. It appears good chance to likely POPs in order for that
area. Elsewhere, thunderstorm activty across the NE Midlands
dissipating and shifting to the north into NC. Latest convective
analysis indicates moderate to strong instabilities, with high
atmospheric moisture content with precipitable water values over 2
inches. Some of the storms could reach severe limits, with
possiblity of locally heavy rain with any slow moving or training
echoes. Will expect the activity to gradually dissipate tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level flow will become northwesterly Tuesday as the upper
trough moves off the East Coast. The associated frontal boundary
will push into the forecast area in the late afternoon/evening
accompanied by a 500 mb shortwave. Abundant moisture ahead of the
front and weak to moderate instability will support afternoon
airmass convection with the greatest coverage near and east of I-20
where PWAT values are above 2.0 inches. Later, as the surface
boundary and shortwave move into the FA, there may be additional
convection progressing eastward from the Upstate. There is a
possibility for a few storms to produce damaging winds and
localized flooding. The front will stall across the forecast area
overnight becoming diffuse. Highs will generally be in the low to
mid 90s with an overnight low in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper level pattern will transition from troughing to ridging
mid-week as high pressure extends westward from the central US. At
the surface, a weak boundary will linger throughout the midterm
keeping a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each
day. However minimal upper level support suggests mainly weak,
diurnal convection. Westerly flow and a building upper level ridge
supports warming temperatures into the weekend.

Early next week, models indicate the possibility of an upper level
trough and associated surface front digging into the mid-Atlantic
States.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main near term concern is any thunderstorm activity. Based on
latest radar trends, have increased confidence of TSRA affecting
CAE/CUB and AGS/DNL terminals in the near term. Added a tempo
group for such through 01Z.

After convection dissipates tonight, will examine whether
lingering convective debris cloud cover will preclude a fog
threat. For now, will include tempo group 09z-13z for the fog
prone sites AGS/OGB. If any terminals receive significant rainfall
later today/tonight, fog/stratus threat could increase. After any
early morning fog/stratus, expect a VFR conditions Tuesday with
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered diurnal thunderstorms. Some
possibilities of late night/early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
616 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-021030-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
616 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
821 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW LITTLE MOUNTAIN   34.14N 81.44W
08/01/2016                   NEWBERRY           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN WHEELAND AND BENS
            PENINSULA RDS.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
916 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARCADIA LAKES           34.06N 80.96W
08/01/2016                   RICHLAND           SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE, ARCADIA WOODS DRIVE.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
924 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 WNW WAGENER          33.68N 81.54W
08/01/2016                   AIKEN              SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY POPLAR SPRINGS RD AND BASS
            POND RD.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
952 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FOREST ACRES            34.03N 80.98W
08/01/2016  M5.26 INCH       RICHLAND           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE REPORTS 1.5 HOUR
            RAINFALL OF 4.64 INCHES, 2 HOUR RAINFALL
            5.26 INCHES. STATE CLIMATOLOGY RAIN GAUGE AT
            TRENHOLM PARK.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1003 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE COLUMBIA          33.99N 81.03W
08/01/2016                   RICHLAND           SC   MESONET

            FLOODING OBSERVED WITH FLOWING WATER
            COVERING INTERSECTION ON ROCKY BRANCH CREEK
            CAMERA AT MAIN AND WHALEY STREETS.

&&

DA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1003 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

SCZ029-031-038-020245-
LEE-CLARENDON-SUMTER-
1003 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LEE...CENTRAL
CLARENDON AND SUMTER COUNTIES...

AT 1003 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MULBERRY TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILLWOOD...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUMTER...MANNING...SOUTH SUMTER...MILLWOOD...MULBERRY...MAYESVILLE...
PINEWOOD...LYNCHBURG...PAXVILLE...OSWEGO...CANE SAVANNAH...
WEDGEWOOD...LAKEWOOD...EAST SUMTER...PRIVATEER...
CHERRYVALE AND DALZELL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3367 8018 3372 8059 3407 8043 3416 8015
      3413 8013 3409 8008 3408 8003 3406 8001
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 240DEG 19KT 3400 8033 3382 8047

JAQ