Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
253 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface boundary will lift north across the Midlands into
this evening, then stall north of the area into early next week.
A warm and moist unstable airmass will support continued afternoon
and evening thunderstorms into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-afternoon analysis depicts a weak surface boundary lifting
across the central Midlands. Meanwhile, in the mid and upper
levels of the atmosphere, a positively tilted trough over the
Tennessee Valley has resulted in a southwest flow aloft across the
region. Water vapor imagery also shows a weak short wave embedded
in the southwest flow aloft lifting toward the area.

The combination of low-level convergence along the surface
boundary, forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
short wave, and a moderately unstable and moist airmass along and
south of the boundary has resulted in the development of isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue well into the
evening as the surface boundary lifts northward through the
northern Midlands. The convection should become outflow dominated
with relatively weak shear as 850mb winds are less than 10 knots.
Then, expect most of the convection to taper off during the
overnight hours.

Cannot rule out the possibility of a few strong/severe storms with
an inverted-V signature on forecast soundings but not expecting a
widespread severe event.

Outside of rain cooled areas, temperatures will remain in the mid
and upper 90s for much of the afternoon. Low temperatures tonight
should be in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge will build over the southeastern states on Monday
as the surface boundary shifts back northward over the northern
Midlands. The upper trough remains nearly stationary over the
Tennessee valley although a piece of energy could move over the
region in southwesterly flow aloft helping to initiate convection.
Will focus higher pops across the northern half of the Forecast
Area in the vicinity of the boundary. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler with a few more clouds expected.

The surface boundary shifts further to the north into NC/VA on
Tuesday with upper ridging dominant over the southeastern states.
Will carry slight chance pops on Tuesday with little in the way
of forcing to initiate convection other than moderate instability
and heating. Max temperatures in the mid to upper 90s continue
and will continue to forecast slightly above the MOS guidance
which has continued to hold a cool bias for weeks now.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended forecast features continued above normal
temperatures while the upper level flow pattern becomes generally
zonal with mainly diurnal based convection through Friday. Chances
of rain will increase over the weekend as an upper trough moves
into the region as the upper ridge amplifies over the middle of
the country. Max temperatures will again be in the upper 90s to
around 100 to end the work week before cooling slightly over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak surface boundary across the CSRA will lift northward later
today into this evening, and will be a focus for scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Confidence in thunderstorms developing is high
enough to maintain a mention of vicinity thunderstorms at the
terminals late this afternoon and this evening, with a tempo group
at the Columbia area terminals for thunderstorms with some flight
restrictions. Additional adjustments may be necessary for other
terminals as radar trends become better established. Otherwise,
outside of any convection, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered diurnal thunderstorms
possible Monday, mainly north of the terminals. Minimal activity
expected Tuesday. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms possible again
Wed/Thu.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
450 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-110900-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
450 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COMBINING WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 104 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
447 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE LAKE MURRAY OF RIC 34.14N 81.23W
07/10/2016                   RICHLAND           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS TREES DOWN ALONG
            BICKLEY ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BROAD
            RIVER ROAD.

&&

CJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
459 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE IRMO              34.10N 81.18W
07/10/2016                   RICHLAND           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS TREES DOWN NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF I20 AND BROAD RIVER
            ROAD.

&&

CJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
501 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NNE IRMO              34.22N 81.14W
07/10/2016                   FAIRFIELD          SC   PUBLIC

            SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS A TREE DOWN ON
            HIGHWAY 269 NEAR THE RICHLAND COUNTY LINE.

&&

CJR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

SCZ021-022-028-102130-
RICHLAND-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-
503 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL KERSHAW...
NORTH CENTRAL RICHLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES...
...BOATERS ON LAKE WATEREE SHOULD SEEK SHELTER NOW...

AT 502 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF LUGOFF TO 8 MILES NORTH OF
IRMO...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLYTHEWOOD...RIDGEWAY AND WINNSBORO MILLS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR LAKE WATEREE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...
YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3435 8069 3418 8100 3428 8122 3447 8085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 250DEG 6KT 3437 8084 3421 8115

JAQ