Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper level ridging will give way to an approaching upper
trough while a weak surface boundary pushes south and stalls over
the Midlands today. A warm and moist unstable airmass will
support continued afternoon and evening thunderstorms into next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early afternoon surface analysis depicts a weak surface boundary
situated across the CSRA/southern Midlands. Meanwhile aloft, a
more southwesterly flow has developed over the region in response
to an upper level trough which has become positively tilted across
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

The surface boundary is not expected to make much more southward
progress, and should actually return northward later in the day.
It is expected that areas along and south of this boundary will be
the focus for convection this afternoon and evening, aided by
forcing for ascent with the approach of a weak short wave
disturbance. Once convection is initiated it will become outflow
dominated with relatively weak shear as 850mb winds are less than
10 knots.

In line with the latest high resolution mesoscale models, will
continue to focus higher mid chance pops along and south of the
surface boundary across the central/southern Midlands and CSRA
while going with slight chance pops across the northern Midlands
on the northern side of the boundary where some drier air and less
instability will exist. One potential issue is with the ongoing
convection over the northeast Gulf coast, which may rob some
moisture within the southwest flow aloft and limit coverage of
convection more than the models are depicting.

Cannot rule out the possibility of a strong/severe storm with
inverted-V signature on forecast soundings but not expecting a
widespread event. Convection could linger into the evening hours
and overnight given the surface boundary so will hold on to slight
chance pops overnight.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal and very warm
although locations north of wherever the surface boundary
eventually becomes located should be a bit cooler than previous
days. It looks like temperatures at CAE may fall just shy of
reaching the record for consecutive 100 degree days, with most
areas likely to see highs in the mid and upper 90s. Overnight
lows tonight will be in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge will build over the southeastern states on Monday
as the surface boundary shifts back northward over the northern
Midlands. The upper trough remains nearly stationary over the
Tennessee valley although a piece of energy could move over the
region in southwesterly flow aloft helping to initiate convection.
Will focus higher pops across the northern half of the Forecast
Area in the vicinity of the boundary. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler with a few more clouds expected.

The surface boundary shifts further to the north into NC/VA on
Tuesday with upper ridging dominant over the southeastern states.
Will carry slight chance pops on Tuesday with little in the way
of forcing to initiate convection other than moderate instability
and heating. Max temperatures in the mid to upper 90s continue
and will continue to forecast slightly above the MOS guidance
which has continued to hold a cool bias for weeks now.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended forecast features continued above normal
temperatures while the upper level flow pattern becomes generally
zonal with mainly diurnal based convection through Friday. Chances
of rain will increase over the weekend as an upper trough moves
into the region as the upper ridge amplifies over the middle of
the country. Max temperatures will again be in the upper 90s to
around 100 to end the work week before cooling slightly over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak surface boundary across the CSRA will lift northward later
today into this evening, and will be a focus for scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Confidence in thunderstorms developing is high
enough to maintain a mention of vicinity thunderstorms at the
terminals late this afternoon and this evening, but still not
great enough to introduce any flight restrictions. Otherwise,
outside of any convection, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered diurnal thunderstorms
possible Monday, mainly north of the terminals. Minimal activity
expected Tuesday. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms possible again
Wed/Thu.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
450 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-110900-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
450 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COMBINING WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 104 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1156 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S COLUMBIA            33.99N 81.03W
07/07/2016                   RICHLAND           SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE 815 WHALEY STREET.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1201 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW COLUMBIA          34.01N 81.05W
07/07/2016                   RICHLAND           SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COLLAPSED STRUCTURE. TREE DOWN INSIDE HOUSE
            2200 LINCOLN ST.

&&

DA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

SCZ027-101815-
LEXINGTON-
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LEXINGTON
COUNTY...

AT 153 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GASTON...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF RED BANK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GASTON...SWANSEA AND PELION.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3366 8121 3368 8125 3374 8127 3388 8107
      3379 8105 3377 8106 3375 8106 3374 8103
      3372 8103 3366 8118
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 257DEG 11KT 3372 8120

JAQ