Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
223 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the
Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A weak pressure trough will
linger in the forecast area. The pattern supports mainly scattered
diurnal thunderstorms with temperatures a little above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing across the
Midlands as the frontal boundary remains just west of the forecast
area. Expect convection coverage to continuing increasing over the
next several hours with the most all of the area still under the
marginal risk area from SPC. PWAT values will be near 2 inches
through this evening and with moderate to strong instability the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms exists. Main
thunderstorm concern is the potential for damaging winds as some
dry air aloft remains. Hail is a lower concern as freezing level
remains around 14 kft. Convection will begin diminishing with
sunset...however with the boundary still across the area and
remaining outflow boundaries intersecting some activity could
linger through midnight or so. Overnight lows will generally be in
the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models display lee-side troughing in the forecast area with
surface ridging to the south. A flat upper pattern is shown.
Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and
convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front
that may move well inland. The MAV and MET MOS have pops 10 to 30
percent. The NAM and GSP indicate h5 temperatures near -6 C.
Instability will likely remain weak and the NAM has surface-based
LI's about -4 indicating a diminished risk of severe thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display surface ridging extending from the
Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range
period. The models keep a frontal zone mainly just north of the
forecast area with lee-side troughing in the area. There may be
upper support at times with a series of mid-level shortwave
troughs brushing the area. The GFS ensemble mean has pops 20 to 30
percent during the period. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS have pops
10 to 40 percent with no particular day more favored for
precipitation. The MOS supports above normal temperatures during
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period.

Convection has begun developing across the area with thunderstorms
in the vicinity of CAE/CUB. Expect thunderstorm coverage to
increase over the next couple of hours with thunderstorms at or
near every taf site by this evening. Have included tempo group for
all taf sites for thunderstorms with the main concerns begin
strong and gusty winds and potential for small hail. Thunderstorm
coverage will diminish late this into tonight with the next
concern being potential for fog/stratus. Have remained with MVFR
conditions at all taf sites during the early morning and sunrise
hours as moisture from rainfall will become trapped under the
inversion.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnal
convection each afternoon through the period along with late
night/early morning patchy fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
359 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

SCZ026-027-030-302030-
LEXINGTON-SALUDA-AIKEN-
359 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 357 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS JUST SOUTH OF GILBERT
IN WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY. MOVEMENT WAS EASTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PONDING OF WATER WILL OCCUR IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THE GILBERT AREA.

LAT...LON 3386 8157 3396 8154 3398 8130 3375 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 266DEG 8KT 3389 8142

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
449 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

SCZ030-302115-
AIKEN-
449 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AIKEN COUNTY...

AT 445 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN NORTHERN AIKEN
COUNTY IN THE HIGHWAY ONE AREA BETWEEN INTERSTATE 26 AND MONETTA.
MOVEMENT WAS EASTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
PONDING OF WATER WILL OCCUR IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3368 8179 3378 8167 3386 8158 3374 8144
      3357 8145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 266DEG 7KT 3376 8162

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
457 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

SCZ030-302130-
AIKEN-
457 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN AIKEN COUNTY...

AT 455 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE EUREKA AREA
OF NORTHERN AIKEN COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM. THE STORM WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LAT...LON 3362 8188 3374 8174 3374 8163 3355 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 266DEG 7KT 3369 8172

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