Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
223 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the
Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A weak pressure trough will
linger in the forecast area. The pattern supports mainly scattered
diurnal thunderstorms with temperatures a little above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing across the
Midlands as the frontal boundary remains just west of the forecast
area. Expect convection coverage to continuing increasing over the
next several hours with the most all of the area still under the
marginal risk area from SPC. PWAT values will be near 2 inches
through this evening and with moderate to strong instability the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms exists. Main
thunderstorm concern is the potential for damaging winds as some
dry air aloft remains. Hail is a lower concern as freezing level
remains around 14 kft. Convection will begin diminishing with
sunset...however with the boundary still across the area and
remaining outflow boundaries intersecting some activity could
linger through midnight or so. Overnight lows will generally be in
the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models display lee-side troughing in the forecast area with
surface ridging to the south. A flat upper pattern is shown.
Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and
convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front
that may move well inland. The MAV and MET MOS have pops 10 to 30
percent. The NAM and GSP indicate h5 temperatures near -6 C.
Instability will likely remain weak and the NAM has surface-based
LI's about -4 indicating a diminished risk of severe thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display surface ridging extending from the
Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range
period. The models keep a frontal zone mainly just north of the
forecast area with lee-side troughing in the area. There may be
upper support at times with a series of mid-level shortwave
troughs brushing the area. The GFS ensemble mean has pops 20 to 30
percent during the period. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS have pops
10 to 40 percent with no particular day more favored for
precipitation. The MOS supports above normal temperatures during
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period.

Convection has begun developing across the area with thunderstorms
in the vicinity of CAE/CUB. Expect thunderstorm coverage to
increase over the next couple of hours with thunderstorms at or
near every taf site by this evening. Have included tempo group for
all taf sites for thunderstorms with the main concerns begin
strong and gusty winds and potential for small hail. Thunderstorm
coverage will diminish late this into tonight with the next
concern being potential for fog/stratus. Have remained with MVFR
conditions at all taf sites during the early morning and sunrise
hours as moisture from rainfall will become trapped under the
inversion.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnal
convection each afternoon through the period along with late
night/early morning patchy fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
401 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-010815-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
401 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID-
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
321 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

SCZ026-027-030-302015-
LEXINGTON-SALUDA-AIKEN-
321 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SALUDA
AND WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 319 PM EDT...RADAR SHOWED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN THE
BATESBURG-LEESVILLE AREA NEAR THE SALUDA AND LEXINGTON
COUNTY LINE. MOVEMENT WAS EASTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PONDING OF WATER WILL OCCUR IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATESBURG-LEESVILLE.

LAT...LON 3389 8160 3398 8161 3404 8132 3377 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 273DEG 4KT 3392 8155