Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
451 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Blizzard conditions expected today southeast of Lake Ontario, for
Wayne, Northern Cayuga and Oswego Counties. Otherwise snow squalls
and lake effect snows will combine with strong winds to produce
blowing and drifting snow across the area. Bitter cold wind chills
are expected today through tonight. A warmup is expected for the
early weekend with a period of rain on Saturday, followed by
scattered snow showers on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...Blizzard conditions expected along the lake shore southeast of
Lake Ontario in Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties this
afternoon and evening...

Two frontal passages will result in two rounds of snow squalls
across the region today. The first shortwave and associated frontal
boundary can be seen on satellite and radar imagery across southern
Ontario province early this morning. This boundary will drop
southward across Lake Ontario this morning, pushing the steady state
intense lake effect band on to the south shore of Lake Ontario this
morning, meanwhile enhancing the snowfall rates with added synoptic
ascent. This will bring difficult driving conditions to the all the
lake shore counties from Niagara across to Oswego, including the
city of Rochester for the morning commute. Periods of snow squalls
this morning will produce very limited visibility with blowing and
drifting snow, even though total accumulations this morning should
only be an inch or two.

The second frontal passage will be the actual arctic front, set to
cross the region this afternoon. This feature is currently seen
satellite and radar imagery near the eastern end of Lake Superior.
MRMS radar imagery, including Canadian radars, shows heavy snowfall
occuring east of Lake Superior with this feature in Ontario
province. Surface analysis in that region suggests a developing
mesoscale low along the frontal boundary, which high resolution
guidance has picked up on very nicely. This feature will be key to
our weather evolution as it races across Lake Ontario this
afternoon, coming on shore near the eastern end of Lake Ontario by
around 2pm. Not only with this feature bring ample enhanced lift and
synoptic moisture to support strong snow squalls, the meso low will
also sharpen the surface pressure field helping accelerate the wind
field in its wake. On the current trajectory, this will bring strong
to potential damaging wind gusts ashore across Wayne, Northern
Cayuga and Oswego counties. The strongest wind gusts, to 60 mph,
will be within 5 to 10 miles of the lake shore, but will also
combine with the snow squall / lake effect snow to produce blizzard
conditions. Locations to the north, Jefferson and Lewis counties,
will see much lighter winds as the wave passes, and perhaps just a
quick burst of snow. The baroclinic zone along the arctic boundary
will elongate across western NY and the Genesee Valley into the
evening. The frontogensis and lift along the boundary will allow for
synoptic snowfall to develop southwestward into this evening. This
will bring a few inches of snow accumulation across the Niagara
Frontier to the Genesee Valley. Snowfall amounts will be locally
enhanced along the south shore of Lake Ontario counties where lake
effect enhancement will aid in bringing accumulations of 4 to 7
inches.

Meanwhile westerly to northwesterly flow will continue to support
multibanded lake effect snow showers east of Lake Erie, across the
western Southern tier, with an additional 2 to 4 inches today, and
another 2 to 4 inches tonight.

Other than the snow, temperatures and wind chills will be quite
bitter today. Temperatures will not rise much today before the
arctic front arrives. Highs will top out in the teens, and wind
chills will remain near zero to minus 10 through the afternoon
today. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low teens near
the lake shores, to singles digits in the southern tier, to 10 below
zero in the North County. A wind chill watch has also been issued
for the North County tonight as wind chills there may reach 20 below
zero or colder overnight into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
By Friday morning only minimal lake effect snow will be left as high
pressure builds into the Lower Great Lakes. This will effectively
lower the capping inversion, bring drier synoptic scale air, and
introduce lighter, more sheared low level flow. Off Lake Erie, a
weaker band of snow may still be ongoing at daybreak across
Chautauqua County, where another inch or so of accumulation is
possible. Winds quickly become southerly during the day, carrying
what remains of the lake effect snow out over Lake Erie and into
southern Ontario in the afternoon near Port Colborne. A few light
snow showers may clip the NY shoreline up to Buffalo with minimal
accumulation. Off Lake Ontario, a few flurries or light snow showers
will continue through early morning southeast of the lake from Wayne
to Oswego counties. This will then drift north into the lake and tea
kettle as flow becomes light and land breeze dominated. What remains
of the lake effect snow will then move north into Ontario near Prince
Edward Point and Kingston during the afternoon and evening. Any
additional accumulations will be minimal.

Otherwise the rest of the area outside of lake effect should see
some breaks in the clouds in the morning, before mid level clouds
thicken in advance of the next system. It will be another cold day
with highs in the lower 20s on the lake plains and the mid to upper
teens across higher terrain, but those highs will not be reached
until the end of the day when warm advection increases. Winds will
be lighter however, so wind chill will not be as much of a factor.

Friday night and Saturday our attention turns quickly away from the
mesoscale and back to the synoptic scale. A mid level trough will
dig into the Northern Plains, with a broad wing of warm advection
increasing from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. Increasing
isentropic upglide will overspread the area Friday Night in advance
of a warm front over the Ohio Valley. Isentropic upglide and
moisture transport will be enhanced by a 40+ knot low level jet. The
increasing ascent and moisture will allow snow to overspread the
region from southwest to northeast Friday evening. Most of the snow
will be light, with a few embedded brief areas of moderate snow
possible. The snow will continue into Saturday morning.

During the day Saturday, a surface low will take shape and deepen
across Indiana and southern Lower Michigan. Strong low level warm
advection will spread northeast across the area, allowing
temperatures at the surface and aloft to surge above freezing. Expect
temperatures to rise into the 40s by the end of the day from the
Finger Lakes westward. This will allow the snow to quickly change to
rain from west to east. Expect the changeover by late morning across
far Western NY, and early to mid afternoon across the Finger Lakes
and Central NY, and by early evening across the North Country.
Spotty light rain will then continue through Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Prior to the change to rain, light to moderate snow accumulations
will be realized across the area. Latest model guidance continues to
suggest an average of 2-3 inches across the lake plains and 3-5
inches across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Lewis
County. Rainfall amounts may reach a half inch or better Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night. Given the fresh snowpack on the ground
now, and relatively brief warm-up, much of the rain will likely be
absorbed by the snowpack in areas with a good amount of snow on the
ground, and will not raise much concern for hydro issues.

The surface low will move through the central Great Lakes Saturday
night, with a strong cold front surging east across our area. This
cold front will bring another period of steady moderate rain to the
area. The rain may end as some wet snow late Saturday night and
Sunday morning as temperatures rapidly fall back below freezing.
Accumulations with this second round of snow will be on the light
side, with an inch or two across higher terrain and less than an
inch across lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Sunday morning the main surface low will be making its way
down the Saint Lawrence Valley to the Canadian Maritimes...with
its trailing cold front situated well to our east over New England.
In the wake of this system...any leftover snow showers (possibly
mixed with rain across the Finger Lakes early in the day) will
quickly wind down from northwest to southeast during the morning...
while a westerly to northwesterly flow of much colder air helps to
generate some lake effect snow showers east and southeast of the
lakes...which will then continue right through Sunday night. At
this point we are still expecting the lake effect to be fairly
limited and scattered in nature thanks to the rather dry nature of
the incoming colder airmass...as well as a low cap that will be
situated around 5k feet. The bigger story Sunday and Sunday night
will be the return to much colder temperatures...with strong cold
air advection resulting in early morning readings in the upper 20s
to mid 30s dropping off into the lower to mid 20s by late Sunday
afternoon...before falling into the single digits Sunday night.

Whatever lake effect snow showers that form will then lift
northward and tend to fall apart altogether Monday and Monday
evening as high pressure builds across the region...the low level
flow backs around to southwesterly and becomes rather sheared...
and warm air advection develops aloft.

Dry and quiet weather along with a notable warming trend will then
follow for both Tuesday and Wednesday...as the surface ridge and
plentiful dry air and large-scale subsidence remains draped across
our region...while our airmass continues to steadily warm. After well
below average highs in the upper teens to mid 20s on Monday...temps
should recover into the upper 20s to lower 30s Tuesday...then into
the mid and upper 30s by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario will move south, coming
on shore south of Lake Ontario this morning. This will produce snow
squalls south of Lake Ontario from near IAG to ROC to FZY. Temporary
IFR or lower conditions are possible there, mainly between 11Z and
14Z.

Lake effect snow showers will also persist east of Lake Erie today
and tonight, brining continued IFR conditions to JHW.

An arctic front will cross the region this afternoon, bringing
continued gusty winds along with another round of snow squalls,
which will again be heaviest along the south shore of Lake Ontario.
Severe winds to 50 knots may accompany these squalls near FZY this
afternoon and early evening, producing blizzard conditions, with
VLIFR likely. Impacts at KART should be limited, with the main
activity remaining south, and potentially remaining MVFR or better.
KROC/KIAG/KBUF will see snow develop and produce IFR or lower
conditons along with blowing and drifting snow late this afternoon
and evening. Wind gusts 30 to 35 knots are expected at these sites.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Saturday...MVFR/IFR. Snow likely. LLWS possible Saturday night.
Sunday...MVFR early...then VFR.
Monday...Areas of lake effect snow...otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong westerly gales for the lakes through tonight as extremely
cold air sweeps across the lakes. Wind gusts may peak over 50 knots
on Lake Ontario this afternoon and early evening as an arctic front
crosses the lake. Winds will subside on Friday morning as high
pressure builds over the lakes, but another large storm system will
arrive over the eastern lakes in time for next weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ012-021-085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ012-085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ007-008.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday
     for NYZ007-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ004>006.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for NYZ001>003.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ010-011-013-014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045-
         063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
410 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

NYZ007-008-160915-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
410 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.
   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND IN THEIR SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ021-160915-
ALLEGANY-
410 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND IN THEIR SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-160915-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-
410 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND IN THEIR SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004>006-160915-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
410 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BLIZZARD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND IN THEIR SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-160915-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
410 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND IN THEIR SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-011-013-014-160915-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
410 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND IN THEIR SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-085-160915-
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
410 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND IN THEIR SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-160915-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
410 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ042-062-160915-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
410 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-160915-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
410 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
421 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     SNOW             SANDY CREEK             43.64N  76.09W
12/15/2016  M13.0 INCH       OSWEGO             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1601409

HITCHCOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
434 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     SNOW             1 SW AMHERST            42.97N  78.80W
12/15/2016  M10.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1601410

HITCHCOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
511 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 AM     SNOW             EAST AURORA             42.77N  78.62W
12/15/2016  M7.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1601411

HITCHCOCK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
516 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

NYZ006>008-151115-
Lewis-Jefferson-Oswego-
516 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT LEWIS...FAR SOUTHERN
CENTRAL JEFFERSON...AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...

At 514 AM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rate
of 4 inches per hour was located from Mannsville and Pulaski inland
across central and southern Lewis county. This band of heavy lake
effect snow will begin to drift south over the next 1 to 2 hours.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are expected with this band of lake effect
snow, producing significant blowing and drifting snow and whiteouts.

Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Lowville, Pulaski, Adams,
Redfield, Selkirk Shores State Park, Highmarket, Barnes Corners and
Southwick Beach State Park.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 34 and 41.

Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this dangerous
snow squall. The combination of very heavy snow and blowing snow
will create very dangerous travel conditions with near zero
visibility and deep snow cover on roads. Some roads are likely to
become impassable. Consider delaying travel until the squall passes
your location.

LAT...LON 4351 7534 4341 7664 4350 7656 4356 7645
      4357 7628 4369 7626 4377 7629 4397 7515
      4361 7511

Hitchcock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
620 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

NYZ004>008-151215-
Lewis-Jefferson-Wayne-Oswego-Northern Cayuga-
620 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT LEWIS...SOUTH CENTRAL
JEFFERSON...OSWEGO...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES...

At 618 AM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 TO 3 inches per hour was located from near Oswego extending
east across central Oswego County to southern Lewis County. This
band of lake effect snow will move south through 715 AM, and move
onshore along the Wayne County shore with rapidly deteriorating
conditions.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are expected with this band of lake effect
snow, creating significant blowing and drifting snow and whiteout
conditions.

Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Fulton, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fair Haven Beach State
Park, Ontario, Williamson, Lowville, Pulaski, Central Square and
Sodus.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 39.

Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this dangerous
snow squall. The combination of very heavy snow and blowing snow
will create very dangerous travel conditions with near zero
visibility and deep snow cover on roads. Some roads are likely to
become impassable early this morning. Consider delaying travel until
the squall passes your location.

LAT...LON 4342 7553 4348 7581 4333 7589 4321 7588
      4321 7608 4322 7609 4327 7620 4322 7619
      4324 7627 4323 7626 4320 7736 4332 7735
      4331 7697 4339 7673 4356 7645 4356 7628
      4369 7626 4393 7515 4361 7511

Hitchcock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
624 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

NYZ002-003-151215-
Orleans-Monroe-
624 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO...
MONROE AND NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS COUNTIES...

At 621 AM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 1 TO 2 inches per hour was intensifying over Lake Ontario. This
band of heavy snow will move onshore from Carlton to Hilton, and
also extend into the Greater Rochester Area. This will bring
deteriorating travel conditions early this morning.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are expected with this band of lake effect
snow, resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow and very
poor visibility at times.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Chili, Brockport, Albion, Hilton,
Webster and Irondequoit.

Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this dangerous
snow squall. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads
are likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until the
squall passes your location.

LAT...LON 4341 7797 4339 7781 4339 7776 4328 7754
      4332 7737 4304 7737 4303 7740 4309 7783
      4312 7791 4313 7791 4313 7795 4331 7846
      4341 7847

Hitchcock