Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
624 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An outbreak of very cold air across the eastern Great Lakes will
bring a strong lake effect snow event to much of the area tonight
through early Friday. High winds will make bad conditions worse with
blowing and drifting snow, and areas with whiteout conditions. A
warmup is expected for the early weekend with a period of rain on
Saturday, followed by scattered snow showers on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...Major impacts to the Buffalo and Watertown evening commutes
expected as heavy lake effect snow tonight through early Thursday
produces near blizzard conditions...

At 6 p.m. a band of heavy lake effect snow was focused between
downtown Buffalo and Niagara Falls, with intense snows extending
well northeast from Batavia to Albion. A boundary associated with
an approaching shortwave will cause winds to shift to the
northwest this evening which will push the band to the south.
Because this shortwave can be seen upstream on satellite and
observations there is high confidence that the band will shift
south this evening. The band will drop south of the Buffalo North
towns between 7 pm and 8pm, and then drop south of the metro area
into the Boston hills and ski country between 8 pm and 9 pm.
Until then, expect near blizzard conditions in the band with
snowfall rates of 2 inches an hour. There will be some blowing
snow once the band exits, but overall conditions will improve
considerably in the Buffalo metro area by late evening.

Off Lake Ontario, a similar story will play out, except a few
hours later. At 6 pm the band is centered near Watertown and will
continue to produce snowfall at a rate of 2 inches an hour this
evening before dropping to the south of the city roughly 10 p.m.

By later tonight, the flow will become well align and westerly.
The dynamic tropopause will also lower below 500 mb by Thursday
morning, supporting very deep lake effect convection 15 to 20 kft.
Lake Ontario will benefit from this deep instability, upstream
lake connections and the full fetch of Lake Ontario to produce
snowfall rates likely exceeding 3 inches per hour tonight over the
Tug Hill. Off of Lake Erie, the heaviest snow will shift to the
south and settle across the Western Southern Tier, where a
marginal Lake Michigan upstream connection and upslope on the
Chautauqua ridge will support some peak snowfall rates 1 to 2
inches per hour. Temperatures will fall into the low teens to
upper single digits tonight. This combined with breezy westerly
winds will produce wind chills as low as -10F across western NY by
Thursday morning.

Lake effect snow will be over the hills of the Western Southern Tier
and will have settled to the south shore of Lake Ontario as the
Arctic front moves across the lake basin. The axis of the broad
upper trough will take most of the  day to cross the area, which
means that snow showers will be likely even outside of the areas of
lake effect snow. The bottom line is that it will be a snowy day over
the entire forecast area. The pressure gradient will tighten up
which will increase the already stiff winds, and produce near
blizzard conditions. This will be the coldest day with high
temperatures in the teens, and the winds will drop the wind chill
values to the zero to minus 10 range during the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
This will be somewhat of a transition period across our forecast
area...as the deep polar vortex that will have been responsible for
the very cold weather will be exiting across the Labrador Sea. The
amplitude of the supporting longwave trough...anchored over the
eastern half of the continent...will relax in the process. This will
allow for a brief period of significant warming over our region as
the arctic air will become cut off...while a new airmass from the
Lower Mississippi Valley will be pushed in our direction. There
should be no doubt though that the significant warming will be short
lived and will otherwise be accompanied by very unsettled conditions.

An arctic front will be in the process of pushing south across our
forecast area as we open this period Thursday evening. The front
will be along the south shore of Lake Ontario at 00z Fri...then by
06z it should be dropping south of the Pennsylvania border. Strong
baroclinic forcing and low level convergence along the front will
help to produce a two hour burst of moderate to heavy snow as it
makes its way south. The snow will be accompanied by 25 to 40 mph
winds...which will no doubt produce blowing snow with blizzard like
conditions. As if this were not enough...this band of snow will be
enhanced by an upstream connection to the Upper Great Lakes. This
will support snowfall rates of an inch or two an hour...but again...
the overall duration should be relatively short. Even so...this
event will be more than enough to warrant a winter weather advisory
for the combination of snow and wind. There is the potential that
this could be upgraded to a warning by later shifts if it is deemed
to have a greater impact. The strongly worded advisory will also
cover the dangerously low wind chill vales...which will be in the
vicinity of 10 to 15 below. Wind chill values will be in the minus
20's across Lewis County...but that will be covered (at least
initially)...by the current lake snow warning.

Meanwhile...accumulating lake snows will still be in place across
the bulk of the Southern Tier where snowfall rates of an inch or two
per hour can still be expected. The lake snow warning for Chautauqua
and Cattaraugus counties will persist through the night.

On Friday...while it will remain quite cold...the weather will be
much more benign. General low amplitude ridging will build across
the Lower Great Lakes during the course of the day...while the axis
of the associated arctic high will push east to the Adirondacks. The
low level winds will back in the process...so weakening lake snow
showers will push north to the BUF and ART metro areas. Little
additional accumulation is expected. Otherwise...skies will
partially clear with afternoon temps reaching to between 15 and 20
for most of the area. It will be a little colder across the North
Country.

Conditions will deteriorate Friday night. Cyclogenesis over the
Central Plains during the day Friday will yield a well organized
surface low that will track across Missouri Friday night. Strong
warm advection well ahead of this approaching storm will lead to
widespread snow across our region later Friday night into Saturday.
Most of the area should pick up 3 to 6 inches of snow before the
snow turns over to rain...which it will do during the day Saturday.
The sub 1000mb low will track by just to the west of our region...
so we will be guaranteed a warm up along with another round of
strong winds. Temperatures Friday night should bottom out in the
teens (single digits Lewis Co) before midnight...then the
strengthening southerly flow will push the mercury upward into and
through the 20s. Readings will continue their march higher on
Saturday when highs will be in the 40s for most areas.

The strength of the warm advection and low level jet is such that we
will most likely just go from a wet snow right to rain...with little
time for any mixed pcpn in between. Most...if not all...of the area
should be experiencing rain by lunchtime.

The 995mb surface low will track north of Lake Ontario Saturday
night...exiting down the Saint Lawrence Valley by daybreak Sunday.
The rain will change to snow in the wake of the system as strong
cold advection will make its way over the region. Snow accumulations
should be minimal after the transition.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Sunday morning the main surface low will be making its way
down the Saint Lawrence Valley to the Canadian Maritimes...with
its trailing cold front situated well to our east over New England.
In the wake of this system...any leftover snow showers (possibly
mixed with rain across the Finger Lakes early in the day) will
quickly wind down from northwest to southeast during the morning...
while a westerly to northwesterly flow of much colder air helps to
generate some lake effect snow showers east and southeast of the
lakes...which will then continue right through Sunday night. At
this point we are still expecting the lake effect to be fairly
limited and scattered in nature thanks to the rather dry nature of
the incoming colder airmass...as well as a low cap that will be
situated between 3-5 kft. The bigger story Sunday and Sunday night
will be the return to much colder temperatures...with strong cold
air advection resulting in early morning readings in the upper 20s
to mid 30s dropping off into the lower to mid 20s by late Sunday
afternoon...before falling into the single digits Sunday night.

Whatever lake effect snow showers that form will then lift
northward and tend to fall apart altogether Monday and Monday
night as high pressure builds across the region...the low level
flow backs around to southwesterly and becomes rather sheared...
and warm air advection develops aloft. Dry and quiet weather
along with a notable warming trend will then follow for both
Tuesday and Wednesday...as the surface ridge and plentiful dry air
/large-scale subsidence remains draped across our region...while
our airmass continues to steadily warm. After well below average
highs in the upper teens to mid 20s on Monday...temps should
recover into the upper 20s to lower 30s Tuesday...then into the
mid and upper 30s by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main concern will be lake effect snow. In general bands will
be northeast of the lakes early this evening, and then shift to
the south this evening. Confidence in timing the band is above
average because a boundary associated with an approaching
shortwave can be seen on satellite and with upstream observations.

BUF...A band of heavy lake effect snow across the terminal at 23Z
will drop south of the airport between 00Z and 01Z. Until then
expect whiteout conditions with heavy snow, vsby below a 1/4SM,
and possibly thunder-snow. After this, expect a mix of VFR and
MVFR conditions overnight with some blowing snow.

ART...A band of heavy lake effect snow will remain at the airport
through around 03Z, and then drop abruptly southward. After this,
expect a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with some blowing snow.

JHW...Will remain MVFR/VFR through early evening, then heavy lake
effect snow will shift across the terminal overnight. Expect poor
conditions to last throughout the day on Thursday, though vsby
may vary between 1/4SM and 1SM.

IAG/ROC...will get clipped by lake effect snow through early
evening with brief periods of IFR conditions. Otherwise, should
be mainly VFR tonight and Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night...IFR/LIFR with snow and blowing snow.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Saturday...MVFR/IFR. Snow likely. LLWS possible Saturday night.
Sunday...MVFR early...then VFR.
Monday...Areas of lake effect snow...otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Made minor adjustments to the timing of gales, and small craft
headlines. In general extended the small craft advisories on
portions of the rivers, and moved up the gales on the open waters
by a few hours based on the latest observations.

Strong westerly winds will reach gale force tonight through Thursday
night as extremely cold air sweeps across the lakes. Winds will
subside on Friday morning as high pressure builds over the lakes,
but another large storm system will arrive over the eastern lakes in
time for next weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 5 AM EST Friday
     for NYZ012-021-085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for NYZ012-
     085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ007-008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ006-019-
     020.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 5 AM EST Friday
     for NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014.
     Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ002-
     003.
     Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ001.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ010-
     011.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 8 PM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042>044.
         Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Thursday for LOZ043-044.
         Gale Warning until 8 PM EST Thursday for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Thursday for LOZ045-063>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for
         SLZ022.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
710 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

NYZ010-011-160015-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
710 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-160015-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
710 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-085-160015-
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
710 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ021-160015-
ALLEGANY-
710 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-004-005-013-014-160015-
NIAGARA-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
710 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ002-003-160015-
ORLEANS-MONROE-
710 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-160015-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
710 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-160015-
OSWEGO-
710 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-160015-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
710 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ042-062-160015-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
710 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-160015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
710 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
810 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

NYZ007-008-150300-
Lewis-Jefferson-
810 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LEWIS AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 802 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 TO 3 inches per hour will remain nearly stationary through 1000
PM. There are near blizzard conditions in this band of snow, with
visibility below a quarter mile and wind gusts to 40 mph. Even a few
strikes of lightning are possible. After 1000 PM, the band will
drift southward, settling across Southern Jefferson and Central
portions of Lewis county by midnight.

Travel will be extremely dangerous in this band of lake effect snow.
If at all possible, delay travel until after the band has moved
through.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Fort Drum, Stony Point, Carthage, Lowville, West Carthage,
Adams, Dexter, Glen Park and Herrings.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 39 and 48.

LAT...LON 4369 7626 4379 7629 4383 7636 4387 7635
      4384 7644 4385 7647 4394 7647 4396 7644
      4396 7634 4402 7636 4405 7642 4410 7642
      4425 7552 4410 7517 4381 7514

Apffel

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
815 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     SNOW             NORTH TONAWANDA         43.04N  78.87W
12/14/2016  M6.1 INCH        NIAGARA            NY   COCORAHS

            SNOW FELL IN 4.5 HOURS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1601387

APFFEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
858 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     SNOW             BUFFALO AIRPORT         42.94N  78.74W
12/14/2016  M9.6 INCH        ERIE               NY   NWS OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1601388

SJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
859 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW BUFFALO           42.88N  78.89W
12/14/2016  M64 MPH          ERIE               NY   NWLON

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1601389

SJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
917 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     SNOW             1 NW WILLIAMSVILLE      42.97N  78.75W
12/14/2016  M6.3 INCH        ERIE               NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

0755 PM     SNOW             1 S WATERTOWN           43.96N  75.91W
12/14/2016  M5.9 INCH        JEFFERSON          NY   PUBLIC

0845 PM     SNOW             CARTHAGE                43.98N  75.60W
12/14/2016  E13.5 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   PUBLIC

0903 PM     SNOW             KENMORE                 42.97N  78.87W
12/14/2016  M5.8 INCH        ERIE               NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1601390
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601391
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601392
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601393

SJW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
937 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

NYZ010>012-019>021-085-150430-
Allegany-Southern Erie-Cattaraugus-Chautauqua-Wyoming-Northern
Erie-Genesee-
937 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT ERIE...SOUTHERN GENESEE...
WYOMING...NORTHERN CATTARAUGUS...NORTHWESTERN ALLEGANY...AND
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES...

At 935 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 to 3 inches per hour extended from Ripley and Dunkirk northeast
across the Buffalo Southtowns and into southern Genesee County.
This band continues to slowly drift southward...and will settle
across the Ski Country the Southern Tier through 1130 pm while
gradually weakening.

Wind gusts to as high as 40 mph are possible with this band of lake
effect snow...which will cause near whiteout conditions at times due
to the combination of heavy snow and blowing snow. Some lightning
and thunder will also remain possible as the band shifts southward.

Locations impacted include...
Dunkirk, Fredonia, Hamburg, East Aurora, Concord, Arcade, Cherry
Creek, and Ellicottville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 61 and 56, and near exit 47.
 Interstate 86 between exits 4 and 16.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4227 7976 4228 7973 4231 7977 4244 7950
      4253 7939 4260 7919 4270 7910 4310 7795
      4266 7797 4258 7805 4253 7804 4234 7815
      4200 7963 4200 7976

JJR