Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE GENERATING ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS TO THE LEE OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE
ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MORNING UPDATE...UPGRADED NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES
TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AND SHIFTED THE START TIME TO 9AM
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. KBUF RADAR IS SHOWING
A WELL ORGANIZED SNOW BAND RIDING THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE FROM YOUNGSTOWN EAST TO WEBSTER STAYING JUST NORTH OF
DOWNTOWN ROCHESTER. THE KING CITY CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS AN UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WHICH IS ENHANCING THE LAKE BAND OVER
THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKESHORE. KBUF RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW
RATES ARE RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE BAND
WHICH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 700MB
MOISTURE PLUME. THIS ALONE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO
A WARNING WITH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR AND RGEM
MODELS SUGGESTING THE BAND COULD PERSIST IN PLACE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE THE CORE OF HEAVIEST SNOW SLOWLY SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LAKES SHORE. SNOW TOTALS WITHIN THIS NEWLY
UPGRADED WARNING HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO A RANGE OF 7 TO 15 INCHES
RANGING FROM TODAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTSIDE OF THE LATEST WARNING UPGRADE...THE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH A
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC-SOURCED AIRMASS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITHIN THE COLDER
AIRMASS...THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND A GENERAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL OF A FEW INCHES TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...

OFF LAKE ERIE...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TODAY WILL VEER MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A NOTEWORTHY MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME...THE STEADIEST LAKE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED
SNOWS WILL TEND TO FOCUS MOST ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE REGION
OF SOUTHERN ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LAKE-DRIVEN
OVER TIME AS OUR AIRMASS GROWS COLDER. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT SNOWS IN THIS REGION ARE FALLING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TONIGHT TIED TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON LATER ON TONIGHT. WITH LAKE
EQLS OF 8-10 KFT IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT...THE STAGE APPEARS SET FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY VENTURE INTO
WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
MORNING...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

MEANWHILE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ARE NOW TAKING
SHAPE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE ON A WESTERLY FLOW. THE CORE OF
THESE SNOWS WILL SHIFT EVENTUALLY INTO THE WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BEFORE SETTLING EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS WITH THE
LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY...A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH
LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT PRESENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT TO RESULT IN A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WHERE THE SNOWS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHEASTERN WAYNE-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS WARNING AREA... LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE TUG HILL REGION WHERE LESSER BUT
STILL ADVISORY-WORTHY AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY BETWEEN TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STEADILY DROP INTO THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT...READINGS MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...MOST LIKELY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY NEAR FINDLAY LAKE GIVEN THE FLOW DIRECTION. THIS UPSTREAM
CONNECTION WILL END LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE END OF THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
AND ALSO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ON THURSDAY IN
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
ALSO WHERE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION FORMS. THIS WILL BRING STORM
TOTALS FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW JUST INLAND FROM THE
LAKESHORE.

LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY WSW AS A SURFACE LOW RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BACKING WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RE-ORGANIZE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FETCH
INCREASES ACROSS THE LAKE. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MAY
DRY OUT IN THE TOP OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A TIME
FRIDAY MORNING...ALSO EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH UNCERTAINTIES STILL ON THE IMPACT OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. ON
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW ALONG
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE 290 WIND DIRECTION SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE MAX IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES WHERE THE FETCH IS
MAXIMIZED. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST OF
ROCHESTER ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY OF
3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER TO
PORTIONS OF ORLEANS AND EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES. THE WILDCARD IN
THIS AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPSTREAM GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION
WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT MAY VERY WELL BE THE TIME OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
FOR A SMALL AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BAND CONSOLIDATES
WITH BACKING FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WNW
AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO END FROM ROCHESTER
WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH AND OFFSHORE.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AN INTENSIFYING SINGLE BAND OF SNOW OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FURTHER TO WEST AND WSW...WHICH WILL CARRY THE
BAND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PEAK FROM SODUS INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY
WITH ANOTHER 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT A QUICK 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ONCE THE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND
MERGE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION
MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DEEPENING COLD AIR CONTINUES WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR/LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AND ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT
REDUCES CONDITIONS TO AS LOW AS LIFR IN MORE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...AND IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A BRISK FLOW OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY
WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
ELECTED TO EXTEND OUR EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THESE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
         EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
921 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NYZ001>003-111430-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-
921 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HEAVY SNOW SQUALL. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
THEN DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-011-111430-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
921 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTY FRIDAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HEAVY SNOW SQUALL. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
THEN DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS.

A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-111430-
WYOMING-
921 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTY FRIDAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HEAVY SNOW SQUALL. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
THEN DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS.

A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-085-111430-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
921 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. THIS MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS.

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HEAVY SNOW SQUALL. ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ013-014-021-111430-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
921 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HEAVY SNOW SQUALL.

A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004>006-111430-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
921 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HEAVY SNOW SQUALL. ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-111430-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
921 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL JEFFERSON
AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS.

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HEAVY SNOW SQUALL.

A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-111430-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
921 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
CROSSES THE LAKES WITH MODERATE WINDS AND WAVE ACTION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             2 ENE COLDEN            42.65N  78.61W
02/10/2016  M4.3 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600427

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1046 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     SNOW             LYNDONVILLE             43.34N  78.39W
02/10/2016  M4.0 INCH        ORLEANS            NY   COOP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600428

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1119 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     SNOW             HILTON                  43.29N  77.79W
02/10/2016  M8.0 INCH        MONROE             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600429

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1120 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     SNOW             2 SW FORESTVILLE        42.45N  79.20W
02/10/2016  M5.0 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600430

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     SNOW             PERRYSBURG              42.46N  79.00W
02/10/2016  M8.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   COOP OBSERVER

            5 INCHES OVERNIGHT...3 INCHES BETWEEN 6-11 AM THIS
            MORNING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600431

JAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1147 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NYZ001-002-101815-
ORLEANS-NIAGARA-
1147 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT FAR NORTHERN ORLEANS AND
NORTHERN NIAGARA COUNTIES THROUGH 1 PM...

AT 1141 AM EST...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING SNOW FALL
RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WAS HUGGING THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE OF NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTIES.  AREAS SOUTH OF THIS BAND
HOWEVER WILL SEE LITTLE SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWFANE...WATERPORT...FORT NIAGARA STATE PARK...LAKESIDE BEACH STATE
PARK...KENT...KENDALL...WILSON...LYNDONVILLE...BARKER AND APPLETON.

VISIBILITIES WILL DROP QUICKLY TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE IN
THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW OR ICE COVERED ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA
TIME WHEN TRAVELING.

LAT...LON 4337 7853 4336 7800 4330 7800 4326 7906

ZAFF